Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 841164">Getting equal dollar amounts wagered on both sides of a betting proposition is sports book nirvanna.  In that case winning and losing bets are equal and the book collects their 10% vigorish on winning wagers.  The operating principle isn't much different than that of Wall Street market makers.  Consequently, the book will move its line (or not) during the week to reach an end point as close to balanced bets as can be managed.The opening line is the product of the sports book's analysis of what spread will draw equal numbers of bets, not necessarily an opinion on the margin of victory.  The final line expresses the "wisdom of crowds".  For whatever reason, the crowd does not want to accord the Bears more than the home field advantage edge.The first Vegas opening line was Bears -3 1/2:<a href="http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/" target="_blank">http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/</a>The line moving to -3 is not exactly begging for Bears wagers, more a minor adjustment.If overcoming the 10% vig is a mugs game without a backtested algorithm as a baseline, it is especially so on opening day where there is no data yet on the current versions of the the teams.</blockquote>

Total: 250 (members: 2, guests: 248)