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<blockquote data-quote="BorderRivals.com" data-source="post: 497526" data-attributes="member: 6416"><p>Bill Barnwell from grantland.com has the statistical data to support what I said above to a much better extent:</p><p> </p><p><strong>Minnesota acquires the 29th overall pick from New England for the 52nd, 83rd, 102nd, and 229th picks.</strong></p><p><strong>Quantitative winner:</strong> New England (59.5 percent more in return)</p><p><strong>Real-life winner:</strong> New England</p><p>Note the dramatic gulf between what Stuart's model thought of the difference in value across the first four trades and what it thought of this one. The Patriots, simply put, took the Vikings to the cleaners. It's incredible that Bill Belichick seems to pull this off every year, but it's even more impressive in this draft. <a href="http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Chase's model estimates</span></u></a>, historically, that the 29th overall pick has delivered about 40 percent more value than the 52nd overall pick during their first five seasons in the league. That's really not that much, and in a flat draft like this year's, it's undoubtedly a smaller figure, probably closer to 10 percent or so. For that tiny chance of getting a better player, the Vikings gave up third- and fourth-round picks that could end up producing valuable contributors. In 2007, the 83rd pick delivered Charles Johnson, who became a double-digit pass rusher and one of the highest-paid players in football. The 102nd pick that year was Brian Robison, who himself has 30 sacks over six years in the league. The Patriots aren't getting worthless picks here.</p><p>The Vikings made this move to get Cordarrelle Patterson, which seems shortsighted considering the bevy of second-tier wideouts still left on the market. They could have waited through the end of the first round and the top of the second round, where few teams need wideouts, before pouncing in the middle of the second round. That might only have cost them a fifth-round pick or so. In any case, it took what had been an excellent Vikings draft and ruined their night. And while it might not have been the most exciting return for Patriots fans, it was very clearly the right move to make.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BorderRivals.com, post: 497526, member: 6416"] Bill Barnwell from grantland.com has the statistical data to support what I said above to a much better extent: [B]Minnesota acquires the 29th overall pick from New England for the 52nd, 83rd, 102nd, and 229th picks.[/B] [B]Quantitative winner:[/B] New England (59.5 percent more in return) [B]Real-life winner:[/B] New England Note the dramatic gulf between what Stuart's model thought of the difference in value across the first four trades and what it thought of this one. The Patriots, simply put, took the Vikings to the cleaners. It's incredible that Bill Belichick seems to pull this off every year, but it's even more impressive in this draft. [URL='http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Chase's model estimates[/COLOR][/U][/URL], historically, that the 29th overall pick has delivered about 40 percent more value than the 52nd overall pick during their first five seasons in the league. That's really not that much, and in a flat draft like this year's, it's undoubtedly a smaller figure, probably closer to 10 percent or so. For that tiny chance of getting a better player, the Vikings gave up third- and fourth-round picks that could end up producing valuable contributors. In 2007, the 83rd pick delivered Charles Johnson, who became a double-digit pass rusher and one of the highest-paid players in football. The 102nd pick that year was Brian Robison, who himself has 30 sacks over six years in the league. The Patriots aren't getting worthless picks here. The Vikings made this move to get Cordarrelle Patterson, which seems shortsighted considering the bevy of second-tier wideouts still left on the market. They could have waited through the end of the first round and the top of the second round, where few teams need wideouts, before pouncing in the middle of the second round. That might only have cost them a fifth-round pick or so. In any case, it took what had been an excellent Vikings draft and ruined their night. And while it might not have been the most exciting return for Patriots fans, it was very clearly the right move to make. [/QUOTE]
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