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Unwritten rules of football that need to go
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<blockquote data-quote="broguy" data-source="post: 685252" data-attributes="member: 11278"><p>Good article. I always like Barnwell's stuff, as he approaches the game from a very analytical perspective. As Barnwell mentions, a coach isn't going to be able to calculate these probabilities on the fly, and I think we're a long way from coaches using statistical models to make in game decisions. But at the same time coaches have to have a basic understanding of these concepts and balance them with factors that they are seeing in an individual game. These expected points models are very coarse, because they don't hone in on specific game situations. For instance, as El Guapo was hinting, the probability of converting a fourth down and eventually scoring a TD in a low scoring game is likely diminished because, as the score indicates, you're playing a strong defense.</p><p></p><p>One particular drive from the Minnesota game comes to mind. We were down 10-7 middle to late third quarter, and had driven the ball 70 some yards in 9 plays. Faced with a 4th and 2 on Minnesota's 14 yard line, McCarthy went for it rather than attempt a field goal to tie the game. You know the rest from there - they stop us, drive it down for a touchdown, and then, after a touchdown of our own and a few costly turnovers, we end up losing by 3. Now hindsight is always 20/20, and the fumble and interception in the 4th were both extremely costly, but I thought that was a clear example of when the game dictates taking the points.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="broguy, post: 685252, member: 11278"] Good article. I always like Barnwell's stuff, as he approaches the game from a very analytical perspective. As Barnwell mentions, a coach isn't going to be able to calculate these probabilities on the fly, and I think we're a long way from coaches using statistical models to make in game decisions. But at the same time coaches have to have a basic understanding of these concepts and balance them with factors that they are seeing in an individual game. These expected points models are very coarse, because they don't hone in on specific game situations. For instance, as El Guapo was hinting, the probability of converting a fourth down and eventually scoring a TD in a low scoring game is likely diminished because, as the score indicates, you're playing a strong defense. One particular drive from the Minnesota game comes to mind. We were down 10-7 middle to late third quarter, and had driven the ball 70 some yards in 9 plays. Faced with a 4th and 2 on Minnesota's 14 yard line, McCarthy went for it rather than attempt a field goal to tie the game. You know the rest from there - they stop us, drive it down for a touchdown, and then, after a touchdown of our own and a few costly turnovers, we end up losing by 3. Now hindsight is always 20/20, and the fumble and interception in the 4th were both extremely costly, but I thought that was a clear example of when the game dictates taking the points. [/QUOTE]
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