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Trading off the 1st round pick
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<blockquote data-quote="El Guapo" data-source="post: 605184" data-attributes="member: 5830"><p>There's always the Vikings, who keep trading back into the first round the past three drafts - twice in 2012, three times in 2013, and twice again last year! There will always be fools, you just have to know them well enough to consummate the deal. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/roflmao.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":roflmao:" title="ROFLMAO :roflmao:" data-shortname=":roflmao:" /></p><p></p><p>I have a problem with this logic -- not you specifically though DKN. First round picks aren't to be strictly used on players that you expect to start as rookies. Why shouldn't we draft the best player at one of our three positions of high need (NT, ILB, CB) if one is available? I'd rather have that rookie first round NT ride the pine his rookie season and learn from Raji and Guion, adjust to the speed of the game, without the pressures associated with being a high pick. Let's never forget that these are just 21 or 22 year old kids with the weight of the world on their big shoulders. It can and does cause some of them to fail just as much as the physical side of the game.</p><p></p><p>To the OP, I did a big analysis of Green Bay's first round draft picks back to the mid-70s. While I'm a fan of trading back, historically the Packers have been pretty good in the first round. Using my proprietary, subjective rating system, the Packers have made 26 successful first round draft picks since 1976 with 15 failures, a 63% rate of success (the last three drafts are excluded). Topping the list of GMs was Bart Starr with a 73% rate, TT not far behind at 71%, Mike Sherman and Forrest Gregg tied at 67% with only three drafts/picks each, and Ron Wolf at 64%. Those are pretty good rates in general although I don't have any statistics on the NFL as a whole. I can say that we have better luck with mid-to-late rounders in the first rather than top ten picks.</p><p></p><p>So while I'm still a proponent of trading away for quantity vs perceived quality, the Packers have a good track record in the round so I'm never concerned.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="El Guapo, post: 605184, member: 5830"] There's always the Vikings, who keep trading back into the first round the past three drafts - twice in 2012, three times in 2013, and twice again last year! There will always be fools, you just have to know them well enough to consummate the deal. :roflmao: I have a problem with this logic -- not you specifically though DKN. First round picks aren't to be strictly used on players that you expect to start as rookies. Why shouldn't we draft the best player at one of our three positions of high need (NT, ILB, CB) if one is available? I'd rather have that rookie first round NT ride the pine his rookie season and learn from Raji and Guion, adjust to the speed of the game, without the pressures associated with being a high pick. Let's never forget that these are just 21 or 22 year old kids with the weight of the world on their big shoulders. It can and does cause some of them to fail just as much as the physical side of the game. To the OP, I did a big analysis of Green Bay's first round draft picks back to the mid-70s. While I'm a fan of trading back, historically the Packers have been pretty good in the first round. Using my proprietary, subjective rating system, the Packers have made 26 successful first round draft picks since 1976 with 15 failures, a 63% rate of success (the last three drafts are excluded). Topping the list of GMs was Bart Starr with a 73% rate, TT not far behind at 71%, Mike Sherman and Forrest Gregg tied at 67% with only three drafts/picks each, and Ron Wolf at 64%. Those are pretty good rates in general although I don't have any statistics on the NFL as a whole. I can say that we have better luck with mid-to-late rounders in the first rather than top ten picks. So while I'm still a proponent of trading away for quantity vs perceived quality, the Packers have a good track record in the round so I'm never concerned. [/QUOTE]
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