Trade one of the Smith's.

[GreenBaySlacker]

I'm thinking. True to form, we neglected our offensive and defensive lines. And even first round picks take years to develope. Which means the current roster will be completly flipped by the time our new rookie first rounder is drafted and developed into a stud....

The other option is free agency...

Last couple years we let Mathews walk. Perry released. And the team definately prioritized the olb/de? Despite change of def coordinator. We dropped $25m/yr on the Smith's. And our highest pick we will see in years, drafting Gary... All our fire power on the position.... presumably because we expected only one of the two Smith's to stick long term. And Gary will take time to develope. Meanwhile we have two Smith's. By the time one Smith takes the lead, Gary will be ready...

Since we sold the farm getting the Smith's. And committed the future to Gary when we drafted him... We don't have free agency flexability like the Ted Thompson years.....

So here is my idea. Trade one of the Smith's and their mid double digits sacks while their stock is sky high.... Take that cap space and draft picks and reinvest it into the lines ...... Then promote the Gary/fackrell combo.

Fackrell had double digits sacks last year. Which still proves to be a waste sitting on the bench. Combined with Gary needing to see the field more ...

We got lucky both the Smith's are doing as well as they have been. And we have been damn lucky Clark has been healthy.... Clark goes down and the Smith's system glitches.

I think we should balance the team. Maneuver those resources to other positions in imediate need up good upgrades .

 

[Mondio]

what cap space, the dead cap would likely double or triple anything we'd "save" from salary.

I don't think you've thought this through.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

I didn't look at the contracts. Did we give them huge front money? Damn it.

Good greif.

We are going to be chasing our tales for another half decade trying to fill holes.

I love the 8-3 record.

But I have always thought. As lame as it is drafting olinemen and dlinemen. That is where it all starts and ends. The lbs and secondary find ways to fill in and be great. When there is pressure up front in the base defense.

We are in the second half of Rodgers career .and no adjustments have been made. It seems.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Contracts aside, this would not be a prudent move on the Packers part. We finally find 2 bookend OLB's and we trade one away? No thank you. It appears that Gute hit a home run by signing the Smith Brothers and they are now the 2 cornerstones that you build around.

Now if Gary had shown more promise up to this point, it might be worth considering (cap aside making it not worth considering), but he hasn't. Using hindsight, they should have traded Fackrell after his big sack numbers last year, but probably any decent GM would have seen what most of us saw, it was a fluke.

Yes, the Packers are going to need more talent at ILB and DL, but you don't cut off the head of the snake to save the tail.

 

[HardRightEdge]

what cap space, the dead cap would likely double or triple anything we'd "save" from salary.

I don't think you've thought this through.

Yeah, this is rudimentary capology. The premise in the OP is oblivious to the fact that when you trade a guy all of his future prorated signing bonus money hits the cap in the year of the trade.

Even if you trade one of these guys in the tight window between the start of the league year (when trades can be made) and when roster bonuses come due a few days later, thereby pushing the roster bonuses onto the new team, there ain't much cap savings. After that window, the cap savings goes negative.

Z. Smith: Signing bonus dead cap in 2020 = $15 mil; 2020 cap savings = $2.25 mil; roster bonus = $9 mil

https://overthecap.com/player/zadarius-smith/3970/

P. Smith: Signing bonus dead cap in 2020 = $12 mil; 2020 cap savings = $1.5 mil; roster bonus = $4 mil

https://overthecap.com/player/preston-smith/3886/

This is what I call the "silent guarantee" that comes with large signing bonuses. You simply cannot capture enough cap saving in year 2 to trade this kind of contract.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I didn't look at the contracts.

Why not? You should presume that big multi-year second contracts will have big signing bonuses.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Contracts aside, this would not be a prudent move on the Packers part. We finally find 2 bookend OLB's and we trade one away?

On the matter of prudence beyond cap considerations it goes further than that.

If one was confident in Gary as a starter to make this trade, then keeping all these guys gets you Z. Smith (or Gary) playing inside on a whole bunch more of those 75% nickel/dime snaps. Z's looked pretty darn good doing that on a limited basis. The concept in drafting Gary was to have all three of these guys on the field for a fairly hefty number of snaps, which would go quite some ways in resolving the problem that the OP is trying to fix.

In that case, more impact out of a base DE than we're getting from Lancaster would be a positive. If he can rush a little then Clark wouldn't need to take this too-high snap count.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

On the matter of prudence beyond cap considerations it goes further than that.

If one was confidence in Gary as a starter to make this trade, then keeping all these guys gets you Z. Smith (or Gary) playing inside on a whole bunch more of those 75% nickel/dime snaps. Z's looked pretty darn good doing that on a limited basis. The concept in drafting Gary was to have all three of these guys on the field for a fairly hefty number of snaps, which would go quite some ways in resolving the problem that the OP is trying to fix.

In that case, more impact out of a base DE than we're getting from Lancaster would be a positive. If he can rush a little then Clark wouldn't need to take this too-high snap count.

Agreed. Gary improving would make a big difference to the Packer defense and as you said, it isn't just to have a rotational 3rd OLB with the Smiths. All 3 players would give Pettine or whoever the DC is, a lot of options. Closest the Packer defense has come to this in recent memory is Matthews, Peppers and Perry, but I don't remember all 3 of those guys being on the field together much.

All that said, I was just pointing out the the OP, that cap implications aside, it makes no sense to trade away one of the most important pieces of a defense that is still trying to improve.

 

[XPack]

It's like average IQ drops by half during alcohol induced Thanksgiving!

 

[Mondio]

It's like average IQ drops by half during alcohol induced Thanksgiving!

hey, I didn't even start drinking yet.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

hey, I didn't even start drinking yet.

I'll drink to that.

Nothing wrong with kicking ideas around, it keeps us sober or maybe makes some of us drink more?

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

What we need to do is trade back this year in the Draft. If we could make 13 selections, and hit on half, we wouldn't have to worry about the cap situation until 4 years from now.

I hate to say it but copy the Rams. Surround your big money guys with solid guys out the Draft and just hit the reset button when it's time to pay the piper. That's how they climbed so high so fast.

 

[C-Lee]

lol

 

[XPack]

I'll drink to that.

Nothing wrong with kicking ideas around, it keeps us sober or maybe makes some of us drink more?

When I'm drunk and see a thread like this, I avoid replying....as it's get me banned

 

[TornSolace]

I'm thinking. True to form, we neglected our offensive and defensive lines. And even first round picks take years to develope. Which means the current roster will be completly flipped by the time our new rookie first rounder is drafted and developed into a stud....

The other option is free agency...

Last couple years we let Mathews walk. Perry released. And the team definately prioritized the olb/de? Despite change of def coordinator. We dropped $25m/yr on the Smith's. And our highest pick we will see in years, drafting Gary... All our fire power on the position.... presumably because we expected only one of the two Smith's to stick long term. And Gary will take time to develope. Meanwhile we have two Smith's. By the time one Smith takes the lead, Gary will be ready...

Since we sold the farm getting the Smith's. And committed the future to Gary when we drafted him... We don't have free agency flexability like the Ted Thompson years.....

So here is my idea. Trade one of the Smith's and their mid double digits sacks while their stock is sky high.... Take that cap space and draft picks and reinvest it into the lines ...... Then promote the Gary/fackrell combo.

Fackrell had double digits sacks last year. Which still proves to be a waste sitting on the bench. Combined with Gary needing to see the field more ...

We got lucky both the Smith's are doing as well as they have been. And we have been damn lucky Clark has been healthy.... Clark goes down and the Smith's system glitches.

I think we should balance the team. Maneuver those resources to other positions in imediate need up good upgrades .

Build around them not get rid of them they are pleasant surprises and you want to get rid of one of them? Put down the bottle please.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I hate to say it but copy the Rams. Surround your big money guys with solid guys out the Draft and just hit the reset button when it's time to pay the piper. That's how they climbed so high so fast.

After the Rams traded Marcus Peters to the Ravens for LB Kenny Young (who I don't believe is a starter for them), they turned around and traded their 2020 1st. round pick + 2021 1st. round pick + 2021 4th. round pick for Jalen Ramsey. We could debate if Ramsey is that much better than Peters, but that's another topic.

These Rams moves are not exactly the picture you are painting. And what did this "win now" Ramsey move buy them? So far an erratic 6-5 record, coming off a beat down by the Ravens, outside looking in for a playoff spot.

Ramsey forced his way out of Jacksonville because they franchise tagged him for 2020 instead of giving him an extension. Now the Rams will face the same question with him. At this rate those 1st. round picks are going to be worth more than the Rams anticipated.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

When I'm drunk and see a thread like this, I avoid replying....as it's get me banned

you`re banned. we can read minds...lol

 

[Mondio]

I think the Rams were a bit reckless and are just starting to reap the "rewards" of their decisions.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think the Rams were a bit reckless and are just starting to reap the "rewards" of their decisions.

Getting their "just deserts"?

I agree, but admit that as a casual onlooker, I don't really pay close attention to much of what other teams do. The amount they paid Goff and his play this year, has to have them concerned. While Jalen Ramsey is a great CB, I would have had a problem parting with 2 first round picks + having to deal with what you know is going to be him asking to be the highest paid CB in the league.

Didn't they also "break the bank" on Gurley? Who like Goff, doesn't seem to be playing up to his contract.

It's a good thing they got Clay Matthews for "cheap" and his play has improved. Helps to be playing with a better defense than the one he played most of his career with in GB.

 

[mradtke66]

Oh dude, where do we even start with you...

True to form, we neglected our offensive and defensive lines.

Stop looking at their positions. Smith and Smith are defensive linemen. Z-Smith, at 275 is prototypical size for a 4-3 LDE. P-Smith at 255 is a touch light, but well within normal for a 4-3 RDE. We invested heavily here.

By the time one Smith takes the lead, Gary will be ready...

So here is my idea. Trade one of the Smith's and their mid double digits sacks while their stock is sky high.... Take that cap space and draft picks and reinvest it into the lines

Okay, first, the ideal is to get all three on the field at the same time in nickel and dime. P-Smith at one edge, while Z-Smith and Gary flip between other edge and 3-T pass rusher. Both have the size to be designated pass rushers at 3T. Hell, in 3rd and long, they could both be DTs.

Second, Smith and Smith was a defensive line investment. Get it through your head, OLBs in a 3-4 are defacto linemen. Just squint your eyes and imagine they are in a 3 point stance.

If you want interior linemen/defensive tackles, that's fine. But be more precise with your word choice.

Then promote the Gary/fackrell combo.

Fackrell had double digits sacks last year. Which still proves to be a waste sitting on the bench. Combined with Gary needing to see the field more ...

I like the Gary pick, but he could bust. Or which ever Smith you keep could get a career ending injury. Just terrible thought process all around.

And Fackrell. Good lord. He lucked into those sacks. His pressure to sack conversation rate was absurdly high. In other words, he very, very rarely actually threatened the opposing quarterback, but was very good about sealing the deal when he did.

He's the opposite of the Gary argument. Gary was disruptive as hell, but rarely sealed the deal with a sack.

Honestly, I'd rather move Fackrell from OLB to ILB. At least try it. He's the best of the group in pass coverage and plays the run well. Unsure if he's fast enough, but meh. He'd probably be 3rd, if not 2nd best at the position tomorrow if they switched him. More so because of how bad our ILB depth is, but maybe he surprises.

We got lucky both the Smith's are doing as well as they have been. And we have been damn lucky Clark has been healthy.... Clark goes down and the Smith's system glitches.

So your argument is that if our Pro-Bowl Caliber NT goes down, our defense as a whole will suffer?

Um.

NO. $H!T. Tell me more, oh wise one.

I think we should balance the team. Maneuver those resources to other positions in imediate need up good upgrades .

We are balanced, you just don't realize it.

We have 2 great edge players and legitimate depth.

We have a great NT. Above average in the run game and an excellent rusher, which is rare for the position.

Our DT depth hasn't really played up to expectations, but they meet the bare minimum of adequate.

Lowry has done fine, but he's not a NT. He's a 3-4 DE/3T tweener. He's done his job and is a poor man's Kampman.

Montravius Adams appears to just not have it. Sad, really.

Tyler Lancaster hasn't improved from last year. He's cheap, keep him one more year. He *should* be your backup/run-down NT.

Before throwing resources at the position, identify the weaknesses. Be Specfic. Don't throw around your perceived lack of investment.

They would likely benefit from a run plugger NT. Give Clark a breather between the 20s. Or allow Clark to play more 3T, where he'd likely be even more disruptive.

They would likely benefit from a rotational 3T rusher. IF Gary progresses, we have this. If we don't, it's one of the hardest positions to fill.

Second large thesis: I've been talking all about defense...

True to form, we neglected our offensive and defensive lines.

Are you nuts? We spent a 2nd round pick on Jenkins and signed a very highly priced FA in Turner. In what bizzaro world is this neglect?

 

[mradtke66]

I didn't look at the contracts. Did we give them huge front money? Damn it.

Good greif.

No, once again, you have demonstrated you don't understand NFL contracts.

We gave them signing bonuses. Signing bonus cap hits are spread over the life of the contract. If you cut or trade a player early, you get the balance of the cap hit immediately.

For example, Z-Smith got a 20 million dollar signing bonus, which is honestly a little low for a premium edge rusher. 4 year deal. 5 million of cap hit based on signing bonus per year.

After this year, 15 million of the cap hit for his bonus will remain. If we trade him, we immediately take a 15 million dollar cap hit. Whatever savings you dreamt of, ****. Gone.

You MUST look into contracts before coming up with crazy situations, else you look like a fool.

 

[greengold]

I’m not one who knows much regarding the cap & contracts, but, if I’m not mistaken, didn’t Gutes work 2 year outs for the Packers into all 4 of our FA signings from 2019? I recall reading that he had done so.

Also, looking at the signings, especially with regards to the Smith Bros., I believe we are getting an extremely high rate of return on what are considered around the league to be very affordable contracts.

I appreciate your throwing ideas around to improve the team, but this one seems like it would be robbing Peter to pay Paul... looking at other team needs that are very real, I can’t argue your desire to just spit ball this though. Putting those ideas out there shows more trust in others here to round out those thoughts, and there are many good perspectives offered here.

We struck gold in signing both Smiths. I think we are just a handful of players away from being dominant. Another FA/draft period should position the Packers well moving forward, and right now, we’re playing with house money. Let’s just see where it goes.