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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 852024"><p>First, the offense, through Week 10, 2019:</p><p></p><p>The offense is 19th. at 37.2%, much improved over the last 3 games at 43.8%, 8th. ranked. Compared to the low 30's early in the season, the recent improvement amounts to one additional extended drive per game, not insignificant. Evidently, this data does not include "no play" penalties:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct" target="_blank">https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct</a></p><p></p><p>The Packers are 3rd. ranked in the league in 3rd. down converstions by penalty at 2.9 per game. To what degree this may be a byproduct of hard counts and and/or running down the game clock would be a matter for intense research into the film, something I'm not willing to do.</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/penalty-first-downs-per-game" target="_blank">https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/penalty-first-downs-per-game</a></p><p></p><p>There is something interesting below the surface exposed in a series of pro-football-reference.com queries. I'll forgo the monster links and just show the data. Including "no play" penalty snaps, we see the following Packer 3rd. down results broken down by yards-to-go:</p><p></p><p>0 - 3 yards, 13 - 27, <strong>21% of attempts </strong>with a <strong>48% conversion rate</strong></p><p>4 - 6 yards, 20 - 33, 26% of attempts with a <strong>61% conversion rate</strong></p><p>7 - 10 yards, 16 - 40, 31% of attempts, with a 40% conversion rate</p><p>11+ yards, 3 - 29, 22% of attempts with a <strong>10% conversion rate</strong></p><p></p><p>There are only 4 kneel-down in the data, one in the 0-3 range, three in the 11+ range, not meaninfully altering the overall picture.</p><p></p><p>If we take out "no play" penalties the percentages are, respectively, <strong>52%, 57%</strong>, 37%, 7%.</p><p></p><p>Net penalties on 3rd. down in the 2nd. and 4th. tranches are slightly positive, slightly negative in the 1st. and 3rd. tranches. Net-net, penalties have added a slightly better conversion rate by about 2%.</p><p></p><p><strong>What really sticks out in the data is outperformace at 4-6 yards over 0-3 yards and the high percentage of 7+ yard 3rd. down attempts where performance expectedly drops off.</strong></p><p></p><p>Here's the data for the <strong>entire league, </strong>including no-play penalties:</p><p></p><p>0 - 3 yards, 625 - 1057, <strong>26% of attempts </strong>with a<strong> 59% </strong>c<strong>onversion rate</strong></p><p>4 - 6 yards, 445 - 996, 24% if attempts with a <strong>45% conversion rate</strong></p><p>7 - 10 yards, 406 - 1200, 29% of attempts with a 34% conversion rate</p><p>11+ yards, 157 - 889, 21% of attempts with an <strong>18% conversion rate</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>Overall, the league's success rate on 3rd. down (including the penalty plays) is 39.4% vs. the Packers' 40.3%, a fairly negligible 1 out of 100 difference.<strong> </strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>The bolded numbers are where the striking differences lie keeping in mind we're comparing an 8-2 team to a league average.</p><p></p><p>The league's distance on third down skews downward compared to the Packers, particularly in the first tranche. The league average (including penalty no-plays) is 7.5 yards. The Packers' is 8.0 yards.</p><p></p><p>The league's success rate progressively erodes the longer the 3rd. down distance. That would be an "of course" observation without data except that the Packers excel in 4-6 yard attempts, which confounds conventional wisdom, while underforming in short yardage and the expected very long yardage.</p><p></p><p>What should we conclude?</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Team success cannot be attributed to offensive 3rd. down performance. That was pretty obvious before getting into the weeds.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Performance in the 0-3 yard range is clearly sub-par. La Fleur/Rodgers need to figure out how in the game planning and play calling these shorter yardage situations can be maximized. The Packers have a couple of good running backs who can get short yardage so that would not appear to be an issue. The Packers are 9-18 converting on throws; 4-5 on runs; 0-3 as a result of two false start penalties and an offensive PI, and one kneel down. Short yardage passing improvement should be a priority.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Barring that, keep the 3rd. downs in the 4-6 yard range with the exceptionally high conversion rate. Just kidding. The first point needs to be addressed. But given the success rate in this mid-range tranche suggests an emphasis on getting to short yardage more often is probably not all that necessary; getting more out of the shorties is the priority.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The percentage of very long yardage attempts are comparable to the league, but the league succeeds at double the frequently. You would like to see some improvement in this area.</li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 852024"] First, the offense, through Week 10, 2019: The offense is 19th. at 37.2%, much improved over the last 3 games at 43.8%, 8th. ranked. Compared to the low 30's early in the season, the recent improvement amounts to one additional extended drive per game, not insignificant. Evidently, this data does not include "no play" penalties: [URL]https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct[/URL] The Packers are 3rd. ranked in the league in 3rd. down converstions by penalty at 2.9 per game. To what degree this may be a byproduct of hard counts and and/or running down the game clock would be a matter for intense research into the film, something I'm not willing to do. [URL]https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/penalty-first-downs-per-game[/URL] There is something interesting below the surface exposed in a series of pro-football-reference.com queries. I'll forgo the monster links and just show the data. Including "no play" penalty snaps, we see the following Packer 3rd. down results broken down by yards-to-go: 0 - 3 yards, 13 - 27, [B]21% of attempts [/B]with a [B]48% conversion rate[/B] 4 - 6 yards, 20 - 33, 26% of attempts with a [B]61% conversion rate[/B] 7 - 10 yards, 16 - 40, 31% of attempts, with a 40% conversion rate 11+ yards, 3 - 29, 22% of attempts with a [B]10% conversion rate[/B] There are only 4 kneel-down in the data, one in the 0-3 range, three in the 11+ range, not meaninfully altering the overall picture. If we take out "no play" penalties the percentages are, respectively, [B]52%, 57%[/B], 37%, 7%. Net penalties on 3rd. down in the 2nd. and 4th. tranches are slightly positive, slightly negative in the 1st. and 3rd. tranches. Net-net, penalties have added a slightly better conversion rate by about 2%. [B]What really sticks out in the data is outperformace at 4-6 yards over 0-3 yards and the high percentage of 7+ yard 3rd. down attempts where performance expectedly drops off.[/B] Here's the data for the [B]entire league, [/B]including no-play penalties: 0 - 3 yards, 625 - 1057, [B]26% of attempts [/B]with a[B] 59% [/B]c[B]onversion rate[/B] 4 - 6 yards, 445 - 996, 24% if attempts with a [B]45% conversion rate[/B] 7 - 10 yards, 406 - 1200, 29% of attempts with a 34% conversion rate 11+ yards, 157 - 889, 21% of attempts with an [B]18% conversion rate [/B] Overall, the league's success rate on 3rd. down (including the penalty plays) is 39.4% vs. the Packers' 40.3%, a fairly negligible 1 out of 100 difference.[B] [/B] The bolded numbers are where the striking differences lie keeping in mind we're comparing an 8-2 team to a league average. The league's distance on third down skews downward compared to the Packers, particularly in the first tranche. The league average (including penalty no-plays) is 7.5 yards. The Packers' is 8.0 yards. The league's success rate progressively erodes the longer the 3rd. down distance. That would be an "of course" observation without data except that the Packers excel in 4-6 yard attempts, which confounds conventional wisdom, while underforming in short yardage and the expected very long yardage. What should we conclude? [LIST] [*]Team success cannot be attributed to offensive 3rd. down performance. That was pretty obvious before getting into the weeds. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Performance in the 0-3 yard range is clearly sub-par. La Fleur/Rodgers need to figure out how in the game planning and play calling these shorter yardage situations can be maximized. The Packers have a couple of good running backs who can get short yardage so that would not appear to be an issue. The Packers are 9-18 converting on throws; 4-5 on runs; 0-3 as a result of two false start penalties and an offensive PI, and one kneel down. Short yardage passing improvement should be a priority. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Barring that, keep the 3rd. downs in the 4-6 yard range with the exceptionally high conversion rate. Just kidding. The first point needs to be addressed. But given the success rate in this mid-range tranche suggests an emphasis on getting to short yardage more often is probably not all that necessary; getting more out of the shorties is the priority. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]The percentage of very long yardage attempts are comparable to the league, but the league succeeds at double the frequently. You would like to see some improvement in this area. [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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