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The Value of Run Defense
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 876441"><p>The contradiction is obvious. I don't know how one could conclude both efficient run offense and poor run defense have both led to playoff success. That's a correlation without causation.</p><p></p><p>It can be resolved. The answer is that this aspect of the game is not as critical to winning as the passing aspect. If nothing else, that contracition suggests that neither good rushing offense nor rushing defense is essential to winning. Obviously you don't want to be terrible at it, or terrible at any one thing for that matter, but being in the roughly middle 3rd. constituting mediocrity in the run game is not what makes or breaks.</p><p></p><p>That those two measures correlate doesn't mean much if neither represents what is critical to winning compared to other aspects of the game.</p><p></p><p>I'm pretty comfortable in saying, to repeat, that the league averaged 26 rushing attempts per game where a 0.7 YPC differential gets you an additional 18 yards per game. The league averaged 22.8 points per game on an average 348 yards from scrimage, or 15.3 yards per point. I don't think we need an Amazon cloud AI to tell us that the "actual" meaning of of those 18 yards is a give-or-take off of the raw 1.2 points. There are a whole lot more important things that go into there other 21.6 points.</p><p></p><p>The true measure of a running game is what it does on 3rd. down, 4th. down, Red Zone, and goal line where the yards are most critical and the hardest to come by. Same on defense. Of course you don't want to turn yourself into an outlier in a ver bad way, letting some journeyman RB score from outside the red zone while you're jet rushing. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/rolleyes.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":rolleyes:" title="Roll Eyes :rolleyes:" data-shortname=":rolleyes:" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 876441"] The contradiction is obvious. I don't know how one could conclude both efficient run offense and poor run defense have both led to playoff success. That's a correlation without causation. It can be resolved. The answer is that this aspect of the game is not as critical to winning as the passing aspect. If nothing else, that contracition suggests that neither good rushing offense nor rushing defense is essential to winning. Obviously you don't want to be terrible at it, or terrible at any one thing for that matter, but being in the roughly middle 3rd. constituting mediocrity in the run game is not what makes or breaks. That those two measures correlate doesn't mean much if neither represents what is critical to winning compared to other aspects of the game. I'm pretty comfortable in saying, to repeat, that the league averaged 26 rushing attempts per game where a 0.7 YPC differential gets you an additional 18 yards per game. The league averaged 22.8 points per game on an average 348 yards from scrimage, or 15.3 yards per point. I don't think we need an Amazon cloud AI to tell us that the "actual" meaning of of those 18 yards is a give-or-take off of the raw 1.2 points. There are a whole lot more important things that go into there other 21.6 points. The true measure of a running game is what it does on 3rd. down, 4th. down, Red Zone, and goal line where the yards are most critical and the hardest to come by. Same on defense. Of course you don't want to turn yourself into an outlier in a ver bad way, letting some journeyman RB score from outside the red zone while you're jet rushing. :rolleyes: [/QUOTE]
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