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The Value of Run Defense
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 876429"><p>Here's the thing about black box rankings like this. We do not know what a 4th. ranked -18.5 DVOA vs. a 23rd. ranked -0.8 DVOA actually means. How does that translate to yards or scoring or winning? I don't find any attempt by footballoutsiders to draw those meaningful conclusions. Are there any I missed? Is it comparable to an 18 yard difference per game? Is it worth a point, more, less?</p><p></p><p>At least with other black boxes, while we can't examine the methodology, we at least get some conclusions. Though I don't know where Collingsworth got it from, in one of the broadcasts he cited an unnamed black box that concluded a turnover is worth something like 4.5 points though I don't recall the exact figure. That might have come from PFF since he behaves like an endorser of that product. Dunno. While we don't know how that was determined, if it is flawed, at least there is a concrete conclusion to be viewed, even if some healthy skepticism is begged.</p><p></p><p>PFF's AI-fueled, AWS cloud, self-learning, yada and yada application concluded that McCaffrey's value in 2020 was as the 130-something ranked player. Since the application is self-leaning, even PFF couldn't tell you how that was arrived at, which is quite problematic whether we're talking about football or anything else. At least we get the gist that this robot puts a lot less value on running the ball and catching passes behind the line of scrimmage than conventional wisdow would have it.</p><p></p><p>Whether we're talking about an overly-abstracted DVOA or one of these other black boxes, we find they adjust their algorithims with some regularity. In the case of that self-learning nonsense, it's with every nano-second as fresh data is fed into it, and then PFF goes back and revises prior year calculations as they have done with other metrics. DVOA has alos undergone revisions in recent years. Retroactive changes strike me as a fundamental error with no shortage of circularity, which calls into question to some degree the overall project. The game evolves. What went into winning this year is not what went into winning 3 years ago, incrementally, and drastically compared to 20 years ago.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 876429"] Here's the thing about black box rankings like this. We do not know what a 4th. ranked -18.5 DVOA vs. a 23rd. ranked -0.8 DVOA actually means. How does that translate to yards or scoring or winning? I don't find any attempt by footballoutsiders to draw those meaningful conclusions. Are there any I missed? Is it comparable to an 18 yard difference per game? Is it worth a point, more, less? At least with other black boxes, while we can't examine the methodology, we at least get some conclusions. Though I don't know where Collingsworth got it from, in one of the broadcasts he cited an unnamed black box that concluded a turnover is worth something like 4.5 points though I don't recall the exact figure. That might have come from PFF since he behaves like an endorser of that product. Dunno. While we don't know how that was determined, if it is flawed, at least there is a concrete conclusion to be viewed, even if some healthy skepticism is begged. PFF's AI-fueled, AWS cloud, self-learning, yada and yada application concluded that McCaffrey's value in 2020 was as the 130-something ranked player. Since the application is self-leaning, even PFF couldn't tell you how that was arrived at, which is quite problematic whether we're talking about football or anything else. At least we get the gist that this robot puts a lot less value on running the ball and catching passes behind the line of scrimmage than conventional wisdow would have it. Whether we're talking about an overly-abstracted DVOA or one of these other black boxes, we find they adjust their algorithims with some regularity. In the case of that self-learning nonsense, it's with every nano-second as fresh data is fed into it, and then PFF goes back and revises prior year calculations as they have done with other metrics. DVOA has alos undergone revisions in recent years. Retroactive changes strike me as a fundamental error with no shortage of circularity, which calls into question to some degree the overall project. The game evolves. What went into winning this year is not what went into winning 3 years ago, incrementally, and drastically compared to 20 years ago. [/QUOTE]
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