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The Real Ponder outdoors inactive locked

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by JBlood, Jan 4, 2013.

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  1. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    From acmepackingcompany.com


    Christian Ponder: Examining the Vikings' QB Indoors and Out


    By Evan "Tex" Western on Jan 2, 11:30a 44

    [​IMG]
    Jonathan Daniel
    Christian Ponder performed poorly at Lambeau Field and excellently in the Metrodome. Which version of Ponder should we expect on Saturday night?
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    There is no question that the play of Christian Ponder was one of the major reasons that the Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 17 to secure a playoff berth and a rematch in Green Bay six days later. Ponder threw for a season-high three touchdowns, did not throw an interception, and set a career high for a single-game passer rating at 120.2. Now that's all well and good, but is it truly a sign that he has stepped up his game, or was his performance a product of a friendly environment in the Metrodome?
    Ponder's splits statistics indicate that is more likely to be the latter.
    Here are Ponder's passing stats for the entire season:

    Comp Att % Yds TDs TD% INT INT% Y/A Sacks Rating
    300 483 62.1 2,935 18 3.7 12 2.5 6.1 32 81.2
    That's not a spectacular line, by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, his passer rating ranks 21st in the NFL, right in between fellow NFC North QBs Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford. Now let's examine Ponder's stats at home vs. on the road:

    Comp Att % Yds TD TD% INT INT% Y/A Sacks Rating
    Home 144 226 63.7 1,581 11 4.9 6 2.7 7.0 13 89.5
    Road 156 257 60.7 1,354 7 2.7 6 2.3 5.3 19 74.0
    Clearly, Ponder has been performing much better at home than on the road. The team's record is a reflection of this, as the Vikings are 7-1 at home this year compared to 3-5 on the road. Going off his passer rating, he's performing at a Tony Romo or Matt Schaub level at home - certainly those are quarterbacks who are successful and strong reasons why their teams were in contention for the playoffs. But on the road, Ponder regresses to Jake Locker-Brandon Weeden level, a pace far inferior to what Vikings fans would hope for.
    Now that we know that he plays significantly better in the Metrodome than out, let's take a deeper look to see if the elements affect Ponder. He played four games outdoors this season: week 6 in Washington, week 9 in Seattle, week 12 in Chicago, and week 13 in Green Bay. Those four games see an even more unpleasant set of statistics for Ponder. In this case, let's look at the average numbers per game:

    Comp Att % Yds TD TD% INT INT% Y/A Sacks Rating
    Indoors 18.3 28.4 64.5 186.8 1.2 4.1 0.5 1.8 6.6 1.9 89.6
    Outdoors 20.0 35.5 56.3 173.3 1.0 2.8 1.5 4.2 4.9 2.3 61.2
    That's even more brutal than the home/road splits, and the Vikings' 0-4 record outdoors is no doubt related to Ponder's performance. His indoor rating is almost identical to his home rating, indicating that road conditions aren't necessarily affecting him as long as he's playing inside. It appears to be the outdoor conditions that are getting the best of him, as he is asked to throw more often and much less effective when he does. That passer rating is so bad that the last QB to put up a passer rating below Ponder's outdoor rating while still throwing enough passes to be eligible was Jimmy Clausen in 2010 for the Panthers. That's just awful.
    Hopefully for Packers fans, Ponder's outdoor struggles will continue on Saturday night. I for one am hoping for 20 degrees with snow and wind.
    Note that for the purposes of this study, I assumed Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis and Reliant Stadium in Houston to be indoors, even though they technically have retractable roofs. I'm only concerned about situations where the elements are in play, and both of those stadiums are essentially "climate-controlled" for the sake of this examination.
    Also, I need to say thanks to @BadgerNoonan for the inspiration on this look at the indoor/outdoor splits.
     
  2. Ceodore

    Ceodore Cheesehead

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    heard on the radio this morning that he's never played outdoors when the temp was less than 40 degrees.
     
  3. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    Most stats are pretty worthless, but Ponder has pretty pedestrian numbers to this point. He may turn out to be good someday, but we need to take advantage of his inexperience right now. I look for Capers to pressure him tomorrow.
     
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  4. 98Redbird

    98Redbird Cheesehead

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    You guys ever notice how when ppl/sportscasters/analysts say "X football player/team has never in their history played in X weather, or beaten X team under X circumstances, or have had to overcome X set of odds" they ALWAYS seem to FAR exceed expectations when playing the Packers at those times. We are a lot of teams "First Times" in those circumstances... just curious if anyone else has noticed this?
     
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  5. bozz_2006

    bozz_2006 Cheesehead

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    Of course. If they're right, the next morning they'll get big ratings on their show talking about how right they were. People will call in to pile on, and they'll be high-fiving everybody. And then someone will call in to defend the losing team, and then that guy will get piled on, and everybody will be high-fiving.

    If they're wrong, the next morning they'll get big ratings on their show talking about how wrong they were. But how nobody saw it coming. How only the smart fans even took that stat into account in the first place; so they were only kinda wrong. But how, yes, they were wrong. But how really they're right. People will call the show to pile on the host, and everybody will be high-fiving. Then someone will call in to defend the host, and they'll high-five about how smart they are, even though they're wrong.... and round and round it goes....
     
  6. packerfan4ever

    packerfan4ever Cheesehead

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    I don't care about his stats, I know the pack is ready to get even and they will have their way with Ponder.
     
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  7. okcpackerfan

    okcpackerfan Cheesehead

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    It really does seem that way, wish there was some quantitative evidence.
     
  8. bozz_2006

    bozz_2006 Cheesehead

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    But that's exactly the trick. Talking heads use this all the time; there are stats to comb through ad nauseum, nothing new under the sun. So the only new thing is a lack of stats. They'll use the absence of a particular scenario to set up a logical certainty. "He's never done this." "He's always done this." And they're not saying it to spark conversation today. They're setting up their show for tomorrow. The only thing that makes a talking head stand out is when he or she takes a firm stand on one side of the issue. And the next day they'll use that to frame the show. They couldn't care less whether that stand is right or wrong, only that it's bold.
     
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  9. 98Redbird

    98Redbird Cheesehead

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    Well yeah, I understand that they are "taking a shot" at hoping they hit the jackpot and have ratings to talk about the next morning. My point is, why is it always that Packers that give them those ratings and helps them hit that jackpot that they are looking for? That's whats frustrating.
     
  10. GeeDogWarrior

    GeeDogWarrior 0 - 0

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    So basically, Ponder is a chicken that hides behind an awesome running back and chicken squat roll-out plays...
    chip - chip - chip - chip.
    So let's do what we did to other chickens (schaub/locker) and get a lead - shutdown the HB, blitz on 3rd Down, make some tackles....(sees reply of Tramon's sissy tackle) "You're Tearing Me Apart, Tramon!" :mad:
     
  11. Raptorman

    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    Rodgers QB rating in games below freezing. 75.1





    Which just happens to be and NFL high.
     
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  12. bozz_2006

    bozz_2006 Cheesehead

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    Ponder's QB rating in games below freezing. 0.0. I can do it too, Redbird! lol
     
  13. Raptorman

    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    Number of games Rodgers has played below freezing. 14. Number of games Ponder has played below freezing 0. You got nothing til he plays. :)
     
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  14. bozz_2006

    bozz_2006 Cheesehead

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    Dammit!
     
  15. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Was about to say that is NFL high
     
  16. Raptorman

    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    Hey, I put it in my post. Didn't make anything up. :)
     
  17. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Used to tiny stuff is your excuse?

    OHHHHHHHHH

    Burnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
     
  18. Dexter-Remmick

    Dexter-Remmick Guest

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    Well atleast its at home and outside. If the D can stop AP and make Ponder throw we will have a great chance at winning that game.
     
  19. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    Where did you find your stats, and a passer rating of 75.1? According to Yahoo split stats Rogers has been in 4 games in "Frigid" conditions (<21 degrees) and has a passer rating of 95.2. In "Cold" games (21-40 degrees) he has a passer rating of 108.7, which is his highest rating of all weather splits and exceeded only by his 115.9 rating indoors. The cold doesn't seem to bother him too much; and certainly doesn't take him down to Ponder level.
     
  20. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    16 games in "cold" weather. BTW, Rogers is 3/0 in January
     
  21. LZ13

    LZ13 Cheesehead

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    Weather today is about as perfect as it comes. Not a factor. At all. What will be a factor is Clay Matthews.
     
  22. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Ponders elbow will ache a lot more with the temps in the teens. AP's bionic knee will lock up. :giggle:
     
  23. 12theTruth

    12theTruth Guest

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    Some QB's learning curves are slower than the next. This is only Christian Ponder's 2nd NFL season. Maybe the bulb came on and his eureka moment has most recently arrived. Maybe we can't rely on seeing the Ponder of our first encounter this season.

    Homefield Metrodome crowd or not Ponder looked darn good last week and tonight's ideal conditions (for this time of year) weather wise shouldn't factor in his performance.

    The key to this game for the Pack is a fast start on offense and winning the turnover battle. I'm going to go on somewhat of a limb and say that Peterson doesn't break 100 yards rushing tonight. Add those three together and it should spell the recipe for a win, hopefully!
     
  24. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Packers are 4-1 against division opponents in playoffs. ... Packers were 7-1 at Lambeau Field this season, while Vikings were 3-5 on road. ... Vikings are 6-15 in road playoff games. ... Vikings have not played a "cold-weather" game outdoors since Dec. 28, 2010, when the temperature was 32 degrees for 24-14 victory over Eagles. Since 2000, Minnesota is 2-6 outdoors when it's 32 or below.
     
  25. Alex

    Alex Cheesehead

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    Stats like this just scare me and are something those stupid announcers say then the total opposite happens.
     
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