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Message: <blockquote data-quote="JBlood" data-source="post: 323075" data-attributes="member: 16">For all of you who discount "luck" as an important factor in the NFL, I refer you to  <a href="http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/11/randomness-of-win-loss-records.html" target="_blank">Advanced NFL Stats: The Randomness of Win-Loss Records</a>According to the research done at ANFLS, 42% of NFL results are due to randomness, or "luck", which is a direct result of the short season of 16 games.   The longer the season, the more likely that a team's record actually represents its abilities, as in Major League Baseball.By rating each team on its offensive passing and running; and its defense on defending the pass and the run, the site has a weekly table on a team's results vs what would actually be expected based on the 4 factors above.the graph after 13 games:[ATTACH=full]9086[/ATTACH]San Diego, therefore, is the unluckiest team by 3.9 more games lost than expected; and Atlanta is the luckiest by 5.41 games.So,  the Packers have lost 1.36 more games than expected and  the Bears have won 2.1 more games than expected.So, if no randomness existed, the Packers would be 9 and 4, while the Bears would be 7 and 6.Therefore, the Bears are lucky.  Q.E.D.</blockquote>

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