The Premature Assessment of LeFluer's First Season

[gbgary]

Got to admit it. How he has done it I do not know. What I do know is that no other Packer head coach including Lombardi got this far in his first year unless it is Curly.

i think MLF being a lot less rigid (lol) than Lombardi played into that bigtime. Lombardi inherited a very undisciplined team.

 

[milani]

i think MLF being a lot less rigid (lol) than Lombardi played into that bigtime. Lombardi inherited a very undisciplined team.

Yes, he indeed inherited a loser for a long time including a 1 win season in 1958.

 

[milani]

Was the win on Monday more of a reflection on LeFluer or Pettine?

I would say Pettine. Although I believe LaFleur being someone not tied to the Packer past made him affect how the " team " prepared and played. Minnesota was never a house of horrors for him so the team did not think so either.

 

[rmontro]

I for one think MLF met, exceeded any expectations or assessment grading you can place on him.

I agree with you, with one caveat: I thought we would have a more productive offense by this point. That may not be his fault however, since it appears Gute left it until this coming offseason to deal with the offense. There were so many holes on this time, it couldn't be built overnight.

If we end up winning the Super Bowl, or even get there, that would be crazy impressive. I know most people don't see us as serious contenders, but we have a chance to get the #1 seed, and you would think that would at least put us in the conversation. It's kind of hard to see exactly how the team is winning, since they don't seem to have outstanding statistics in many categories. I'd say our best characteristic is balance.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

pettine dialing up more pressure (which he's done lately).

I actually thought the same as you, that Pettine was sending more guys. I am not going to go hunt it down, but in another post I quoted something that I had read. It stated that Pettine has actually been blitzing a lot less lately and only called one blitz during the Viking game. I just think it was a night when the Packer DL and the Smith Brothers totally dominated the Viking OL.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Like I said MM had more talent. He even had Favre for 2 seasons while having the luxury to have a talented QB waiting in the wings.

McCarthy didn't have as much talent on defense as the current team has for most of his tenure.

In addition MM was the one responsible for rejuvenating Favre's career.

I agree with you, with one caveat: I thought we would have a more productive offense by this point. That may not be his fault however, since it appears Gute left it until this coming offseason to deal with the offense. There were so many holes on this time, it couldn't be built overnight.

The Packers having faced a lot of good defenses might have something to do with the offense not being improved over last season.

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers having faced a lot of good defenses might have something to do with the offense not being improved over last season.

I'd have to do some research, but I'd venture to say as a whole this schedule has had some of the toughest defenses throughout a season we've seen in a few years.

 

[milani]

McCarthy didn't have as much talent on defense as the current team has for most of his tenure.

In addition MM was the one responsible for rejuvenating Favre's career.



The Packers having faced a lot of good defenses might have something to do with the offense not being improved over last season.

No one rejuvenated Favre's career. He always was a kid until he finally retired. MM had players like Woodson, Matthews, Nick Collins, Pickett, Raji, Tramon, Bishop, Shields, Hawk, and even for a while Nick Barnett and Al Harris. He even had Peppers for a few years. He did not need a great defense to win. Just an average one. But the Capers years were bad defensively for nearly the entire tenure.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'd have to do some research, but I'd venture to say as a whole this schedule has had some of the toughest defenses throughout a season we've seen in a few years.

The nine top 12 scoring defenses faced this season is the most the Packers have played against since Rodgers became the starter in 2008.

As a comparison, they only faced one (the 12th ranked Chiefs) during their record setting campaign in 2011.

 

[gbgary]

I actually thought the same as you, that Pettine was sending more guys. I am not going to go hunt it down, but in another post I quoted something that I had read. It stated that Pettine has actually been blitzing a lot less lately and only called one blitz during the Viking game. I just think it was a night when the Packer DL and the Smith Brothers totally dominated the Viking OL.

by pressure i don't mean blitzing (sending extra guys) specifically. selling-out on pass rush...going for the qb instead of setting "contain" (collapse the pocket). pressure on the back end...man coverage...bump and run. zone blitz. fill up the box. cause qb confusion. anything to make the qb hold the ball a tick or two longer can make a huge difference.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

by pressure i don't mean blitzing (sending extra guys) specifically. selling-out on pass rush...going for the qb instead of setting "contain" (collapse the pocket). pressure on the back end...man coverage...bump and run. zone blitz. fill up the box. cause qb confusion. anything to make the qb hold the ball a tick or two longer can make a huge difference.

So in other words, what the defense does when they aren't blitzing and the offense isn't running the ball?

 

[gbgary]

So in other words, what the defense does when they aren't blitzing and the offense isn't running the ball?

yup...like the min game.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Got to admit it. How he has done it I do not know. What I do know is that no other Packer head coach including Lombardi got this far in his first year unless it is Curly.

There are some clear indications of how LaFleur has done it. I've been harping on the following points all season with some skepticism as to whether the early game numbers would hold up. They have.

1) 3rd. in the league in Red Zone TD scoring at 66.7%.

Aaron Jones has 15 TDs in the Red Zone, 14 on runs. He has two other TDs from 21 yards, a run and a reception, that almost qualify. All but one of Jones' Red Zone TDs have come on 1st. or 2nd. down

All of Jamaal Williams' 6 TDs have come in the Red Zone, 5 on receptions and 1 on the ground. All but one have come on 1st. or 2nd. down.

A couple of the passing TDs have been psudo-runs, with an RB taking forward flip on a jet sweep.

32 of 42 TDs have come in the Red Zone with the RBs accounting for 19 of 32.

If one is inclined to think Rodgers has become an ordinary QB not to be feared in the short field, even on 1st. and 2nd. down, defensive coordinators evidently disagree. Why throw in the short field when the opponent isn't selling out on the run? Rodgers keeps telling you there's more ways to skin a cat than the ones you are used to. This is that.

One thing is evident from these stats and others: You have to go back to Ahman Green to find comparable Packer productivity out of the RB position.

2) 4th. in the league in Red Zone TD scoring defense at 47.8%.

From a quick scan of the data, I believe the 18.9% differential between the offensive and defensive Red Zone TD scoring is second only to Baltimore at 21.2%.

3) Football vs. Fantasy

The Packers are 21st. in offensive yards, tied for 13th. in points.

The Packers are 18th. in yards surrendered, 9th. in points surrendered.

How does this happen? See 1) and 2) above and 4) and 5) below.

Yards might win fantasy games while kicking FGs in the Red Zone will rarely win real football games.

4) +20 Yard TD scoring

Red Zone effectiveness can be neutralized by giving or getting long TDs. A lot has been made of the defense having given up too many big plays this season while Rodgers has fallen short of his expected number of quick strikes.

Actually, it has been *** for tat, with the Packers giving up 10 TDs from outside the Red Zone while the offense has scored 10 in turn. It's actually a scoring push in the middle 60 yards of the field.

5) Turnover Differential and 4th. Downs

Tied for 3rd. in the league in turnover differential at +12. The Packers defense is 7 of 17 on 4th. down stops, while the Packers are 5 of 12 on offense. Failures on offense or success on defense roughly equates to a turnover. -7 on offense vs. +10 on defense roughly equates to an additional +3 turnovers.

6) Third Down Conversions

This has been an offensive weakness, 22nd. ranked at 35.5%. There has been a gradual improvement from the dismal early game punt fests with that percentage in the 20's back then.

The defense is 16th. at 38.9%. The 3.4% differential, 1 out of 29, equates to about one 3rd. down per game including both sides of the ball.

Like +20 TDs, it's *** for tat in the middle of the field.

Conclusion

Is it smoke and mirrors? There seems to be a little of that but not to the extent that the fantasy perspective would indicate.

This team illustrates that Red Zone superiority together with turnover and 4th. down advantages can win football games. Blowing people out, like the 2011 Packers or 2018 Chiefs while playing with a shaky pass defense, should be a cautionary tale.

The defensive resiliance in the Minnesota game should be encouraging. They played indifferent to what should have been momentum swings.

I doubt this team can beat Baltimore, this being Jackson's second playoff rodeo, but the others are showing enough vulnerabilities to make a run plausible. Maybe Belichick can pull one out of his hat and knock those guys off somewhere along the line.

 

[PackAttack12]

I am perfectly ok with being here on 2/2/20 talking about how the Packers shouldn't have won the Super Bowl.

There will definitely be those that will say it.

 

[PackAttack12]

both! rodgers willingness to run MLF's O (mostly during the 2nd half).

Here we go again with this bull **** narrative that Rodgers has been unwilling to run MLF's offense.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Here we go again with this bull **** narrative that Rodgers has been unwilling to run MLF's offense.

And partial proof of that has been the utilization of Jones. He’d maybe get 10 snaps under MM. Rodgers has to buy into that game plan, and he has. So enough of the AR/MLF “controversy”. There isn’t one.

 

[PackAttack12]

And partial proof of that has been the utilization of Jones. He’d maybe get 10 snaps under MM. Rodgers has to buy into that game plan, and he has. So enough of the AR/MLF “controversy”. There isn’t one.

There's literally been zero issues between Rodgers and LaFleur. They have both alluded to as much the entire season. It's amazing how the quarterback has been "reluctant" or "unwilling" to run the ****ing coach's system, yet the team has a chance to put together their best record since two thousand and ****ing eleven. The team is more united than its been in years. There's more energy than there's been in years. There hasn't even been a hinting of bad blood or resentment of any nature throughout the entire season, but we still have this hot garbage take that Rodgers has been revolting against the head coach's system.

A curious take when throughout the game you have Rodgers and LaFleur high fiving, butt slapping, etc. in excitement for what they are doing. But he's been resistant toward the system. LOL.

 

[milani]

There are some clear indications of how LaFleur has done it. I've been harping on the following points all season with some skepticism as to whether the early game numbers would hold up. They have.

1) 3rd. in the league in Red Zone TD scoring at 66.7%.

Aaron Jones has 15 TDs in the Red Zone, 14 on runs. He has two other TDs from 21 yards, a run and a reception, that almost qualify. All but one of Jones' Red Zone TDs have come on 1st. or 2nd. down

All of Jamaal Williams' 6 TDs have come in the Red Zone, 5 on receptions and 1 on the ground. All but one have come on 1st. or 2nd. down.

A couple of the passing TDs have been psudo-runs, with an RB taking forward flip on a jet sweep.

32 of 42 TDs have come in the Red Zone with the RBs accounting for 19 of 32.

If one is inclined to think Rodgers has become an ordinary QB not to be feared in the short field, even on 1st. and 2nd. down, defensive coordinators evidently disagree. Why throw in the short field when the opponent isn't selling out on the run? Rodgers keeps telling you there's more ways to skin a cat than the ones you are used to. This is that.

One thing is evident from these stats and others: You have to back to Ahman Green to find comparable Packer productivity out of the RB position.

2) 4th. in the league in Red Zone TD scoring defense at 47.8%.

From a quick scan of the data, I believe the 18.9% differential between the offensive and defensive Red Zone TD scoring is second only to Baltimore at 21.2%.

3) Football vs. Fantasy

The Packers are 21st. in offensive yards, tied for 13th. in points.

The Packers are 18th. in yards surrendered, 9th. in points surrendered.

How does this happen? See 1) and 2) above and 4) and 5) below.

Yards might win fantasy games while kicking FGs in the Red Zone rarely will.

4) +20 Yard TD scoring

Red Zone effectiveness can be neutralized by giving or getting long TDs. A lot has been made of the defense having given up too many big plays this season while Rodgers has fallen short of his expected number of quick strikes.

Actually, it has been *** for tat, with the Packers giving up 10 TDs from outside the Red Zone while the offense has scored 10 in turn. It's actually a scoring push in the middle 60 yards of the field.

5) Turnover Differential and 4th. Downs

Tied for 3rd. in the league in turnover differential at +12. The Packers defense is 7 of 17 on 4th. down stops, while 5 of 12 on offense. Failures on offense or success on defense roughly equates to a turnover. -7 on offense vs. +10 on defense roughly equates to an additional +3 turnovers.

6) Third Down Conversions

This has been an offensive weakness, 22nd. ranked at 35.5%. There has been a gradual improvement from the dismal early game punt fests with that percentage in the 20's.

The defense is 16th. at 38.9%. The 3.4% differential, 1 out of 29, equates to about one 3rd. down per game including both sides of the ball.

Like +20 TDs, it's *** for tat in the middle of the field.

Conclusion

Is it smoke and mirrors? There seems to be a little of that but not to the extent that the fantasy perspective would indicate.

This team illustrates that Red Zone superiority together with turnover and 4th. down advantages can win football games. Blowing people out, like the 2011 Packers or 2018 Chiefs while playing with a shaky pass defense, should be a cautionary tale.

The defensive resilance in the Minnesota game should be encouraging. They played indifferent to what should have been momentum swings.

I doubt this team can beat Baltimore, this being Jackson second playoff rodeo, but the others are showing enough vulnerabilities to make a run plausible. Maybe Belichick can pull one out of his hat and knock those guys off somewhere along the line.

If anyone can appear to do the improbable and almost impossible it is Coach B.

 

[rmontro]

1) 3rd. in the league in Red Zone TD scoring at 66.7%

Why the big discrepancy between the red zone offense and third down conversions though?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Why the big discrepancy between the red zone offense and third down conversions though?

This is a 1st. and 2nd. down scoring team, which I kinda already showed in the Red Zone stats. Add to that 8 of 10 TDs from 20+ yards have been on 1st. or 2nd. down.

1st. and 2nd. down have been kind of feast or famine with this offense, a lot of 3rd. down long yardages mixed in with the scoring. 3rd. downs when you must pass have not been very successful and there have been a lot of those.

But mostly, it would seem this offense smells blood in the short field.

 

[HardRightEdge]

There's literally been zero issues between Rodgers and LaFleur.

I wouldn't go that far, and frankly the absense of disagreement would not be healthy. Expressions of sideline QB displeasure evidently directed toward the Head Coach have not been entirely absent. What you have not seen is press conference displeasure directed at the coaching. That is not healthy.

 

[PackAttack12]

I wouldn't go that far, and frankly the absense of disagreement would not be healthy. Expressions of sideline QB displeasure evidently directed toward the Head Coach have not been entirely absent. What you have not seen is press conference displeasure directed at the coaching. That is not healthy.

Well when I said no issues, I meant no legitimate issues worth even exploring. We're on the same page.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Here we go again with this bull **** narrative that Rodgers has been unwilling to run MLF's offense.

Yeah, it is BS. Evidence points to audibling limited to the run check on a pass play or vise versa, a two-call system, not the whole playbook.

Is Rodgers overriding some play calls in the huddle? I bet it has happened. Every QB worth his salt does it. The question is how often and I don't believe it is that often. Way too much was made out of that with McCarthy. It is something franchise QBs do. This is one of those things that looks like genius when you're winning and insubordination when losing, but it is all the same thing and it is neither in actuality.

 

[OldSchool101]

Makes sense.

Now that you mention it? I could’ve sworn I saw Rodgers throw his middle finger at MLF and I simultaneously grin and his lips clearly said:

“Insubordinate This! MlF!”

.. but then again keep in mind, my lip reading is worse than our receiving core behind Davante Adams

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Good interview with Z Dog today and how the defense has meshed together over the course of the season.

https://www.packers.com/video/za-darius-smith-believes-team-familiarity-major-factor-in-run-defense