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The first quarter of the season.

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Packerlifer, Oct 14, 2016.

  1. Packerlifer

    Packerlifer Cheesehead

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    Looking at the season, like the game, in four quarters the Packers are off to a more than decent start. Most teams would be happy to begin a season 3-1. Play at that pace consistently throughout and you're looking at 12-4. More than enough for an 8th straight year in the playoffs. Likely the division title. Maybe a first round bye and home field for a divisional playoff game. Possibly even home field throughout the postseason.

    Yet there is a feeling of unsatisfaction with this year's first quarter start with the Packers. Part of that no doubt is due to comparison. With Minnesota in the division at 5-0 and the Packers having lost a close game to them in Week 2 the impact of the 3 wins seems diluted. And last season the Packers began 6-0 so comparing this year's first quarter to last year's is another that leaves 2016 pale by comparison.

    And the wins have also left some things to be desired and closer than they were expected and probably needed to be. Although through most there has been little doubt Green Bay would win they have all come down to plays in the final stages and margins of just 4 and 7 points at the end.

    Last year, after the 6-0 start, the Packers played only 2-2 ball in the final three quarters of the 2015 season. Not enough to deny them another playoff year but it did cost them the NFC North title.

    Can the 2016 Packers win 3 out of every 4 the rest of the way this season? The second quarter has them with 3 home games against Dallas, Chicago and Indianapolis and a road game in Atlanta. The third quarter has 3 straight road games with Tennessee, Philadelphia and Washington before a home date with Houston. The final quarter sandwiches home games with Seattle and Minnesota with road trips to Chicago and Detroit.

    Barring some transformational injuries I think the schedule and the team the Packers have this year can reach that 12 win threshold. The first quarter team stats are revealing of what this team has to continue and what it needs further to do to achieve a championship season.

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2016.htm

    The defense has cracked the league's top ten in yardage (9th, 1,271) during the first quarter. They have been the league's top defense against the run (2.0 ypc) and allowed only one rushing td.

    The pass rush has netted 14 qb sacks, a pace of 56 for the season, if it continues.

    The Packers are 8th in the league in allowing a score against them on only 41.5% of opponent drives against them.

    But, in what has been apparent, their defense against the pass leaves something to be improved. They are only 24th ranked, giviing up 6.9 yds. per reception, and 7 scores against them in four games.

    The Packers have been meager coming up with turnovers; only 2 INT's and 3 defensive fumble recoveries. The Packers rank 28th with only 7.3% of opponent drives ending in a turnover.

    You can see how the Packers stack with the rest of the league in defense here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/opp.htm

    The offense has been showing too much carry over of the struggles that emerged last season. The Pack is ranked only 25th in yards and 11th in scoring (24.5ppg.)

    They are 12th in rushing offense, 27th in passing yardage. The ground game is decent enough (4.3 ypc) but with only a 5.7 yds. per reception the passing game is still "sticky."

    The Packers do have a 9-3 td to INT ratio but have turned the ball over 5 times in this quarter, leaving the team minus-1 in the turnover ratio against. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 8 times in four games or on 5.4% of attempts.


    The Packers have managed 11 touchdowns on 44 drives during this quarter. 40.9% of Packers' drives have ended in a score. 11.4% have ended on a turnover.

    You can see how the Packers compare offensively with the league here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/#all_team_stats

    Special teams are still not so special. Mason Crosby gives them a boost with his perfect 7 of 7 on field goals- 4 of 4 from 40-49 yds. out- and 11 of 11 on extra point kicks.

    Punter Jacob Schum is averaging 40.4 yds with a long of 56.

    But the Packers have no notable return game. They're averaging only 20.2 yds on kick returns and 2.0 on punts.

    Meanwhile they are giving up 28.5 yds. to the opponent on kick returns and 9.0 yds. on punts. As a result the Packers are at almost a 6 yd. disadvantage when it comes to starting field position. On average the Packers are starting on their 25.4 yd. line while the oppoisition is starting on their 31.2.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2016
  2. Twiddlemylobes

    Twiddlemylobes Fat Tuesday Orleans

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    I believe the Dallas Cowboys are a legit team, not a powerhouse but at the very least wildcard playoff good.
    IMO, Dallas hasn't played a top tier team yet and Im not even sure we can qualify to say we are one.
    As I said earlier, This game is a litmus test to see where we stand. A LOSS at home would be discouraging, but also understandable against a team playing good like Dallas. A WIN would leave us with a more optimistic outlook as we delve into the second quarter.
    Don't ask me why but I just feel like our Offense is gaining momentum. As fans (and as a team) GB desperately needs a confidence booster and big Victory.
    Go Pack Go
     
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  3. Packerlifer

    Packerlifer Cheesehead

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    I'm inclined to give the team a B grade for its first quarter. They did win 3 of 4. But losing a strategic game to Minnesota and missing opportunities to win more decisively in the other 3 does keep them from earning an A.

    The defense gets a solid B for their A game defense against the run and their pass rush pressure. But the C or C-minus on pass defense: too few picks, too many big gain completions against their secondary drags down the grade.

    The offense deserves only a C or C-plus at this point. What they're doing compared to what was expected is still sub-par.

    Special teams are C-minus. Mason Crosby is an A but the punting and return games are not and the Packers' work in coverage, while not terrible, is only average at best.

    But it's early in the school year so there's time to get the deficiencies together.
     
  4. Packerlifer

    Packerlifer Cheesehead

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