The BIG Swing

[tynimiller]

Something I've been mulling over and over...few nights sipping bourbon and discussing with fellow Packer fans I want to unpack the reasoning for Gute swinging big this draft at WR or TE (Pitts) to be precise.

So first part, Gute has shown his willingness to go get high level talent at a position, even if it costs elsewhere. The Love pick illustrated that...that move didn't cost a ton in the category of draft equity (a 4th) but by using that 1st on a position of basically zero need illustrates Gute will trust his board and if he can grab what he sees as a top 10 top 20 pick much later he will if able.

Gute looks to the future far more than many would like as well. Dillon was picked for the future issues not the present, Love the same...WR and/or TE isn't a desperate need, especially coming off a year that proved this true...I AM NOT saying this group can perform like that again, but they've proven they can. Back to the future issues...MVS, Adams, EQ and perhaps even Lazard and Tonyan both have some future contract issues coming for us post 2021. We need a succession plan, a surefire WR1 or TE threat like Pitts will be needed eventually.

Timing is the next thing which would allow or justify it for two reasons: Rodgers window and the comp picks coming our way in the 2022 draft, making me more willing if needed to trade a 2nd/3rd or 4th from that draft if needed to make it happen.

One scenario I outlined was if Pitts falls past NE or Bateman is there as well post 15th pick. Bateman has WR1 written all over him, and Pitts could be the Kelce of the future...BOTH in my opinion would be worth using 2022 draft equity to make a move for.

While none of us know what is gonna happen, we do know Gute will swing big if he thinks right call.

 

[PikeBadger]

Agree that we could possibly see a trade up to the low20’s if someone they have left in the top 10 or so on their board falls that far.

 

[Poppa San]

the comp picks coming our way in the 2022 draft,

Are those comp picks expected to be better than the ones we expect this year? IOW are the players you project we will lose more valuable in the comp pick calculations? And does their value balance better than players lost by other teams?

few nights sipping bourbon

I'm deep into my brandy tonight

 

[PikeBadger]

Maybe 3,5 and 6 for Jones, Linsely and King?

 

[tynimiller]

Maybe 3,5 and 6 for Jones, Linsely and King?

I am projecting a 3, 4 and 6. But Linsley is definitely the one that is tough to predict. Could see a 5 or 4

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Maybe 3,5 and 6 for Jones, Linsely and King?

I'm going to guess that Linsley will get the Packers a 4 or even a 3; center contracts have gone up substantially and I fully expect Linsley to be the highest-paid center this offseason.

 

[Pkrjones]

I think AR is content with the weapons he has on offense, just needs MVS to continue ascending and Lazard to execute rubs/picks much better.

I could see Gute making this a Defensive draft to get AR the ball back more consistently. CB, DL1 (to pair with Clark) and ILB would go A LONG way in getting GB back to the Super Bowl.

 

[RepStar15]

Have we not learned that taking a TE in the first round is a bad business decision? MAYBE if Pitts falls to 29 and he is the BAP. But I would never move up for a tight end.

 

[tynimiller]

Have we not learned that taking a TE in the first round is a bad business decision? MAYBE if Pitts falls to 29 and he is the BAP. But I would never move up for a tight end.

Personally Pitts, yes I change my no TE in round 1 rule for. He is that good.

 

[RepStar15]

Personally Pitts, yes I change my no TE in round 1 rule for. He is that good.

Is he though? Didn't we say the same thing about Hock, Fant, Howard, Hurst...the list goes on. I am fairly certain the last first round TE that has been a superstar was Greg Olsen in 2007. The responsibilities of a TE in todays game are so vast, I find it difficult spending a first round pick on a guy that is likely to only play on 40-66% of offensive snaps. Save first round picks for DBs, Olineman, Dlineman and pass rushers that will see the field on 80-100% of offensive/defensive snaps.

Do not get me wrong, I like Pitts. It is just so many factors come in to play when recruiting a TE. Where would he realistically fall on the Packers depth chart? He is not someone you want in pass pro, so that immediately eliminates like 80% of the Packers in-line TE plays where the TE is designed to block before going out for the pass. OK, so lets put him in more as strictly "F" TE and see if you can develop his blocking skills overtime. Is he ahead of Bob on the depth chart? If the packers put a 2nd round tender on Bob and retain him, I cannot imagine the need for a developmental first round F TE. Really the Packers would need a Y TE, ideally, unless they sign big dog another year. To move up for that? I cannot get on board with the glaring needs this team has for 2021.

 

[tynimiller]

Is he though? Didn't we say the same thing about Hock, Fant, Howard, Hurst...the list goes on.

For me yes, but no I don't believe I have graded or thought a TE was a 1st round grade in quite a few years. Pitts is for me, mainly because he isn't a true TE, he is as much a slot WR as a TE. Calling him solely a TE is similar to saying Demetric Felton is a pure WR...when he is as much a RB to me as WR.

Do not get me wrong, I like Pitts. It is just so many factors come in to play when recruiting a TE. Where would he realistically fall on the Packers depth chart?

Right beside Tonyan and immediately make Jace experiment most likely over. Tonyan also isn't under contract for 2021, though I expect our tender on him to retain him, chance he is gone. So arguably one could see a situation where Pitts if drafted could be the #1 TE on our roster at the time.

To move up for that? I cannot get on board with the glaring needs this team has for 2021.

For sure wouldn't be the best scenario, and I'd much rather move up if we do for a CB or a LB like Collins - however Pitts falls past 20, what you give up is going to be very minimal and with chance of massive return.

 

[RepStar15]

For me yes, but no I don't believe I have graded or thought a TE was a 1st round grade in quite a few years. Pitts is for me, mainly because he isn't a true TE, he is as much a slot WR as a TE. Calling him solely a TE is similar to saying Demetric Felton is a pure WR...when he is as much a RB to me as WR.



Right beside Tonyan and immediately make Jace experiment most likely over. Tonyan also isn't under contract for 2021, though I expect our tender on him to retain him, chance he is gone. So arguably one could see a situation where Pitts if drafted could be the #1 TE on our roster at the time.



For sure wouldn't be the best scenario, and I'd much rather move up if we do for a CB or a LB like Collins - however Pitts falls past 20, what you give up is going to be very minimal and with chance of massive return.

For the Packers to move up to #20 from #29 would likely require their second round pick For them to move up to #25 would likely require a 3rd or 4th.
And I totally agree with you on him being more of a WR. That is what an “F” TE end is from my initial post. A player that is more of a pass catching TE that is not expected to block is considered an “F” TE. While I would love to see a guy like Pitts in the offense to add some much needed athleticism, using a first round pick plus another pick to do so, would limit the Packers ability to address real glaring needs.
A guy I like in later rounds is Kenny Yeboah. A poor mans Pitts, if you will. Unlike Pitts he needs some time to develop, but does have the hands and athleticism for the job.

 

[AmishMafia]

When was the last TE who was really good right away? The only one two I can think of are Kittle and Gates. And kittle was the only complete TE. TE is the 2nd toughest position to learn. You need to know all the blocking assignments (and be ready to play either side) and all the receiving routes. If we take a TE in the draft, don't expect too much the next 2 years.

Now WRs, they have evolved with pro style college and HS offenses. There will be WRs in the 2nd round who can make an impact in their first year.

 

[tynimiller]

Is he though? Didn't we say the same thing about Hock, Fant, Howard, Hurst...the list goes on. I am fairly certain the last first round TE that has been a superstar was Greg Olsen in 2007. The responsibilities of a TE in todays game are so vast, I find it difficult spending a first round pick on a guy that is likely to only play on 40-66% of offensive snaps. Save first round picks for DBs, Olineman, Dlineman and pass rushers that will see the field on 80-100% of offensive/defensive snaps.

Do not get me wrong, I like Pitts. It is just so many factors come in to play when recruiting a TE. Where would he realistically fall on the Packers depth chart? He is not someone you want in pass pro, so that immediately eliminates like 80% of the Packers in-line TE plays where the TE is designed to block before going out for the pass. OK, so lets put him in more as strictly "F" TE and see if you can develop his blocking skills overtime. Is he ahead of Bob on the depth chart? If the packers put a 2nd round tender on Bob and retain him, I cannot imagine the need for a developmental first round F TE. Really the Packers would need a Y TE, ideally, unless they sign big dog another year. To move up for that? I cannot get on board with the glaring needs this team has for 2021.

Well with the season almost done it looks like we for now at least have our answer. He never slipped even out of the top 10 and it appears deservingly so. This season Kyle Pitts has been insanely good for ANY TE, let alone a rookie.

His overall PFF grade of 84.1 is incredibly high. For reference the top three are Mark Andrews 91.6, Kittle 91.3, Goedert 87.7

He is 3rd in yards
4th in targets
5th in receptions
3rd in yards per catch

Arguably the only knock on him truly is his lack of TD production...but this is not a product of playing poorly at all. Pitts is special 100%

 

[Schultz]

Ad in he started out slow and is on an average offensive team.

 

[tynimiller]

Ad in he started out slow and is on an average offensive team.

I’d say the fact his team is not that great is a plus in his column. He is a special young TE. He did start out slow for sure though.

 

[Schultz]

I would say Ridley not playing much this year is a plus in his column, not so sure if being on an average offensive team (QB) is a plus though.