Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers; 7 p.m. Saturday on Fox
The line: San Francisco -3. Bookmakers are confident with this spread. They don’t want to move it to less than a field goal despite
strong early support on the underdog Packers. That’s why books are charging extra vig on the Packers.
Green Bay is listed at +3 (-120 or -125 all over town) with San Francisco coming back at -3 (Even or +105). The Packers were favored by 5.5 points at home against the 49ers in the teams’ first game of the season. San Francisco won outright, 30-22.
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San Francisco 49ers linebackers Patrick Willis, left, and NaVorro Bowman, right, celebrate after defeating the New Orleans Saints 36-32 to advance to the NFC Championship Game.
The matchup: In the divisional round of last year’s playoffs, the 49ers hosted the offensively surging New Orleans Saints. As a slight 2.5-point favorite, the Saints drew the bulk of the public-betting support. The game is remembered for the 49ers' dramatic comeback in the final seconds that gave them a 36-32 victory.
But San Francisco led for nearly 90 percent of the game, including going up 17-0 at the start, and won in large part because of its physicality.
History could be repeating itself. The Packers possess advantages in the skill areas — most glaringly at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver with their arsenal of weapons — but are far behind the 49ers upfront on both sides of the ball. The left side of the 49ers offensive line, consisting of Pro Bowlers Mike Iuapati and Joe Staley, is probably the best in the NFL.
They should push around a Packers defensive front, which
DVOA ranks 14th in the NFL against the run, enough to create major openings for running back Frank Gore. The 49ers achieved great success with that during the first meeting with the Packers, as they ran the ball 32 times for 186 yards.
But now they’re even more poised to attack Green Bay’s weakness with mobile quarterback Colin Kaepernick at the helm instead of Alex Smith. The best argument against the 49ers is health.
While Green Bay finally has all its players back, San Francisco is dealing with a significant injury to defensive end Justin Smith. The veteran has a torn bicep but may play against Green Bay. San Francisco needs Smith. Without him, Defensive Player of the Year Aldon Smith hasn’t recorded a sack. The result could hinge on the 49ers pressuring Rodgers.
Pick: San Francisco -3
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