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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 1054265" data-attributes="member: 17987">And yet by the same metric we are behind both Detroit and Minnesota in divisional odds and behind all three of Detroit, Minnesota, and Philly in odds of making conference championship and making Super Bowl. So again I'd ask: what specific improvements lead you to believe we'd be favored against them (possibly all three of them) once the postseason hits?I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying it's *improbable*. Yes, teams are able to elevate themselves in the postseason, but frankly speaking more often than not this isn't the case. We have a tendency to point to the exceptions rather than the rule. The best indicator of future behavior is...past behavior. The idea that teams will find a "second gear" come postseason is a nice theory, but IMO in actuality - over a sufficiently large sample size I think we find that far more teams play roughly at their same regular-season "level" than are able to suddenly hit their next level once the postseason starts. Like I've said plenty of times now - I hope I'm wrong, and certainly could be, but I don't think that's a particularly likely outcome as it stands. But of course that's why they play the games...</blockquote>

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