State of our former QB, Aaron Rodgers

[OldSchool101]

Watching this compilation reminds me of just how much fun it was to watch Rodgers play. He was typically cool as a cucumber and accurate as a assassin. The video also makes me sad to think about the way his career in Green Bay ended.

Totally agree there. He’s still a GB Packer through and through that’s what’s great is we did have lots of terrific moments. Now I noticed many of those big play seasons ended shortly after their highlights, but still he’s an amazing athlete there’s zero question about that.

One thing always made Aaron Rodgers kinda dangerous. When the cards get stacked against him he had the ability to overcome adversity. He needs a team around him though now. I think the Steelers are an easy Top 10 Defense they got my boy Derrick Harmon too. Rodgers just needs to get that Offense in that Top 10-15 area and they’ll be pretty tough.

 

[saturdaysarebetter]

Just realized not only do the Steelers play us, they also play the Jets in week one. So Rodgers will face both his former teams this season. The Steelers also play the other three teams in the NFC North, so I certainly wish them well in those games.

I read that Rodgers could be the fifth QB in NFL history to beat all 32 teams if the Steelers beat the Packers. The other four QBs that beat every NFL team were: Favre, P. Manning, Brees and Brady.

 

[rmontro]

I read that Rodgers could be the fifth QB in NFL history to beat all 32 teams if the Steelers beat the Packers. The other four QBs that beat every NFL team were: Favre, P. Manning, Brees and Brady.

Well, let's hope doesn't get it!

 

[Heyjoe4]

I agree exactly. He’ll want to prove himself it’s how he operates. While he’s not as spry scrambling anymore, he’s still a very effective pocket passer and if left unattended will still run out of bounds for an easy 4-5 yards pickup

Joe in here put up a good point. They are a little thin at quality WR/TE though. It’s Metcalf and then after that Woods and he hasn’t had a great season since 2021 or so. Not to say he can’t eclipse that 400-500 yards area but some ?? Marks at Receiving options.

The Steelers are light at RB as well. I think they're counting on a rookie, not quite sure about that. Arthur Smith likes a run-heavy offense. If they can get the run going, that will certainly help Rodgers.

 

[saturdaysarebetter]

In Rodgers last 10 games, he had 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions. That achillies injury takes time to fully recover from.

 

[OldSchool101]

In Rodgers last 10 games, he had 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions. That achillies injury takes time to fully recover from.

That makes a lot of sense. Just getting back comfortable or confident after something like that you’d expect 1-2 years.

 

[OldSchool101]

The Steelers are light at RB as well. I think they're counting on a rookie, not quite sure about that. Arthur Smith likes a run-heavy offense. If they can get the run going, that will certainly help Rodgers.

They don’t have any proven standout type. They did sign Gainwell from Philly. So they have 2RB’s in their 4th and 5th seasons. But Yes to your point, along with a 3rd Rd All American Rookie, Caleb Johnson. They’re probably fine at RB. I could see 1 more WR option if an option presents itself.

They lost Najee Harris but he did not have a great year. 4.0 per carry is lighter nowadays. He was more a workhorse.
WR, Pickens and TE Frieremuth were the top 2 receivers in 2024. Freiermuth is similar to Kraft in production and obviously Metcalf is a clear upgrade.
Calvin Austin put up 500+ and they did add veteran Robert Woods. If hes healthy he’s still a pretty nice veteran addition.
Maybe they’ll get Darnell Washington more involved this year now that’s he’s comfortable. I could see him putting up 400-500 yards 5TD type area

 

[Magooch]

I saw the other day that Rodgers' signing moved the Steelers' playoff odds from +150 to +140, aka a 10 cent swing.

For some context in a single game, usually home field advantage is worth about 15-25 cents. Make of that what you will

I found that kind of funny, but I do wish him well. I still like Rodgers just fine, and when he is playing his best football he is still one of the most fun to watch guys out there. But I have my doubts about this one. Of course we all know that he was injured and took a while to get back into good form...but the sticky thing is that Rodgers wasn't that good pre-injury before joining the Jets, either. So it's now 2025 and they are essentially hoping that he is able to turn back the clock ~4 years.

All things considered I still think he is a better player than Cousins, Wilson, Fields, Rudolph, whoever... A pre-injury, 2021-level Rodgers is better than guys like Wilson or Cousins have *ever* been. But I would have very tempered expectations if I were a Steelers fan. We can say "Rodgers was great before he was hurt" and it's kind of true, but you pretty much have to throw out his 2021/22 season. We can say "Rodgers started playing well after recovering from injury," and it's also kind of true, but you have to throw out the first half of last season. And the Jets gave Rodgers a lot of leeway in how to approach the offense, but his best play in recent years prior came with LaFleur's motion/play-action heavy offense. They have a defense that *could* be elite, but it hasn't always totally came together. Metcalf is a great WR IMO*, but the rest of the WR room is...not. The OL is good, but not elite.

*but I would also add the caveat that Metcalf is not a particularly great route-runner in my estimation...which as we know is something that can get you in Rodgers' doghouse in a hurry.

I guess ultimately my feeling is that if you think Rodgers can be even 75% of the player that he was in 2021, you're probably in decent shape in Pittsburgh. But if he's at more like 50% of that level (or worse) it's not going to do anything to move the needle for them.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I saw the other day that Rodgers' signing moved the Steelers' playoff odds from +150 to +140, aka a 10 cent swing.

For some context in a single game, usually home field advantage is worth about 15-25 cents. Make of that what you will

Not even close to 50 Cent

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[Thirteen Below]

In Rodgers last 10 games, he had 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions. That achillies injury takes time to fully recover from.

True. In fact, it never fully heals, especially at his age. He'll turn 42 this season, which would make him just the 7th starting quarterback in NFL history to reach that milestone. And the only one of the other 6 who started more than 10 games in a season was Tom Brady.

I don't wish him any bad luck, but the bottom often drops out pretty quickly for older QBs. Especially when they're playing behind an offensive line that was ranked 29th in pass protection last season. That's not good, because Rodgers is definitely not as mobile as he used to be.

 

[saturdaysarebetter]

True. In fact, it never fully heals, especially at his age. He'll turn 42 this season, which would make him just the 7th starting quarterback in NFL history to reach that milestone. And the only one of the other 6 who started more than 10 games in a season was Tom Brady.

I don't wish him any bad luck, but the bottom often drops out pretty quickly for older QBs. Especially when they're playing behind an offensive line that was ranked 29th in pass protection last season. That's not good, because Rodgers is definitely not as mobile as he used to be.

I never liked Tom Brady but after what he accomplished after the age of 40, and playing at such at a high level, impressed me as much if not more than all he accomplished before the age of 40. Probably because I'm over 40 lol.

 

[saturdaysarebetter]

I've noticed non-Packers fans mentioning how Rodgers has won only one Super Bowl, yet his career post-season QBR is 100.1 (slightly down from his career regular season QBR of 102.6) with 45 tds to only 13 interceptions.

I've often heard as well how with two all-time great QBs in Favre and Rodgers, the Pack has won only two Super Bowls all their years. How much do you attribute that to Favre and Rodgers?

 

[OldSchool101]

Rodgers signing was easily and by far the best option the Steelers had. There’s a coin flip chance he finishes above a 95% passer rating and at $13.65Mil + incentives he’s an absolute steal.
Rodgers last 2 seasons he averaged just under 40 drops per season. A normal number is 20-30 and many QB’s have less than half of that across a season. That speaks to the lack of Receiver experience to me.

Robert Woods, Calvin Austin and Metcalf together won’t come near 50% of that drop rate. Their career average combined is in the low 4% area.

My bigger concern is his schedule is pretty tough. Like 10th toughest by SOS

 

[Thirteen Below]

I've noticed non-Packers fans mentioning how Rodgers has won only one Super Bowl, yet his career post-season QBR is 100.1 (slightly down from his career regular season QBR of 102.6) with 45 tds to only 13 interceptions.

That TD/INT stat is interesting. It's about 3.1, which is very good - but a big dropoff from his overall career ratio of 4.3. None of his playoff INTs led to a defeat, but each one did end a drive without points. So it does matter a bit.

I've often heard as well how with two all-time great QBs in Favre and Rodgers, the Pack has won only two Super Bowls all their years. How much do you attribute that to Favre and Rodgers?

I think they each contributed to costing us at least one. They picked some bad weekends to have mediocre games. But there was also coaching to consider, and for most of the 2000s, some ****** defenses and not enough receiving help.

Sometimes, losing is a team effort too.

 

[Heyjoe4]

They don’t have any proven standout type. They did sign Gainwell from Philly. So they have 2RB’s in their 4th and 5th seasons. But Yes to your point, along with a 3rd Rd All American Rookie, Caleb Johnson. They’re probably fine at RB. I could see 1 more WR option if an option presents itself.

They lost Najee Harris but he did not have a great year. 4.0 per carry is lighter nowadays. He was more a workhorse.
WR, Pickens and TE Frieremuth were the top 2 receivers in 2024. Freiermuth is similar to Kraft in production and obviously Metcalf is a clear upgrade.
Calvin Austin put up 500+ and they did add veteran Robert Woods. If hes healthy he’s still a pretty nice veteran addition.
Maybe they’ll get Darnell Washington more involved this year now that’s he’s comfortable. I could see him putting up 400-500 yards 5TD type area

Thanks for that background. Another receiver in addition to Metcalf will need to step up. I expect that early in the season, opponents will double team Metcalf and force Rodgers to find another target. That's why I was surprised when they traded Pickens.

Tomlin and Arthur Smith like to run the ball. The more they can do that, the less pressure on Rodgers.

Considering that the Steelers were Rodgers's last option, he ended up in a decent place. I don't expect the Steelers to be a powerhouse, but they make keep Tomlin's winning-season run going.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That TD/INT stat is interesting. It's about 3.1, which is very good - but a big dropoff from his overall career ratio of 4.3. None of his playoff INTs led to a defeat, but each one did end a drive without points. So it does matter a bit.





I think they each contributed to costing us at least one. They picked some bad weekends to have mediocre games. But there was also coaching to consider, and for most of the 2000s, some ****** defenses and not enough receiving help.

Sometimes, losing is a team effort too.

It's just very hard to win a SB, even with HOF QBs. The Eagles have won only two, the Lions and Vikings zero, the Bears one.

I don't complain (much) about the last 30 years of football in GB. And if you lived through the glory of Lombardi in the 60s, then the wastelands in the 70s and 80s, well you've seen it all. But since Harlan and Wolf arrived in the early 90s, the Packers have been relevant damn near every year since, with very few exceptions.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

That TD/INT stat is interesting. It's about 3.1, which is very good - but a big dropoff from his overall career ratio of 4.3. None of his playoff INTs led to a defeat, but each one did end a drive without points. So it does matter a bit.

Yeah, I'd agree that 100% of drives where the QB throws an INT ends without points.

 

[rmontro]

That TD/INT stat is interesting. It's about 3.1, which is very good - but a big dropoff from his overall career ratio of 4.3.

I would think that would be expected though, since you presumably face better defenses in the playoffs on average.

If Rodgers would have had top ten defenses throughout his career like Tom Brady did, would he have more rings? You would have to think so, but it's impossible to know for sure. IIRC, Rodgers' postseason stats are better than Brady's, but is it because Rodgers didn't have the benefit of good defenses, or is it because Brady was more clutch? Probably a little bit of both. Or a lot of both. It's an age old question as a Packer fan. But the failure to supply the Packers with good defenses when Rodgers was with the team was a failure of the GMs (and coaches) who were here at the time.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I would think that would be expected though, since you presumably face better defenses in the playoffs on average.

If Rodgers would have had top ten defenses throughout his career like Tom Brady did, would he have more rings? You would have to think so, but it's impossible to know for sure. IIRC, Rodgers' postseason stats are better than Brady's, but is it because Rodgers didn't have the benefit of good defenses, or is it because Brady was more clutch? Probably a little bit of both. Or a lot of both. It's an age old question as a Packer fan. But the failure to supply the Packers with good defenses when Rodgers was with the team was a failure of the GMs (and coaches) who were here at the time.

Those Patriot SB teams had excellent Ds. I don't have any stats, just my instinct.

Overall, I believe teams with the best D routinely win SBs.

And yes, if Rodgers played on teams with better Ds, he would have added another SB, maybe two.

 

[OldSchool101]

I would think that would be expected though, since you presumably face better defenses in the playoffs on average.

If Rodgers would have had top ten defenses throughout his career like Tom Brady did, would he have more rings? You would have to think so, but it's impossible to know for sure. IIRC, Rodgers' postseason stats are better than Brady's, but is it because Rodgers didn't have the benefit of good defenses, or is it because Brady was more clutch? Probably a little bit of both. Or a lot of both. It's an age old question as a Packer fan. But the failure to supply the Packers with good defenses when Rodgers was with the team was a failure of the GMs (and coaches) who were here at the time.

That and Teams. We had at minimum 2 seasons that were ended mainly due to Teams failures. The blocked Punt against SF and the Fumble by Bostick. I believe that’s at minimum 2 missed opportunities to appear in a SB. Statistically there’s 1 more.

I recall doing research and during Tom Brady’s tenure Patriots posted 17 of 20 Top 10 Defenses. They had ZERO Defense outside 17th in scoring allowed across 20 seasons.

Rodgers on the other hand had 3 Defenses crack the top10. 2009,2010 and Pettine cracked a #9 in scoring one season. All 3 seasons were playoffs Wildcard Shootout with Cardinals, Super Bowl Win,
NFC loss.m .333


2002 Patriots went 17th in D scoring
2nd place in division
9-7 missed playoffs

2005 patriots went 17th in D
1st place in division
10-6
Lost Divisional to Denver

2011 patriots went 15th in D
1st in division
13-3
Lost SB to Giants

Patriots/Tampa Defense for Superbowl wins?
2020 #8 D
2018 #7 D
2016 #5 D
2014 #8 D
2004 #2 D
2003 #1 D
2001 #6 D

So regardless of being a great QB Brady has NEVER won a SB without help from his Defense. Regardless of what fans cram down our throats he had help and he had that help with rare exception. (2015 he made it but lost the SB with a #15 ranked D)
* However imo Rodgers should’ve had a SB appearance in 2014 with a Top #13 Defense imo. (Bostick). That’s very comparable help on Defense to Brady’s #15 ranked D. Both were good enough to compete at that level without premier help from their D. Both are great QB’s.

Rodgers with Packer Defenses ranked top 9 or better?
.333
Brady finished at Tampa and where are they ranked? #8, #5, #13 on Defense He went .333 (won SB) lost Divisional, Lost Wildcard

Brady went 7 of 19 with top 8 scoring Defenses. .369

Brady LOST 4 AFC Conference games with
#2, #9,#10 and #10 ranked Defenses.

Rodgers LOST 4 NFC Conference games with a #13, #21, #9 and #13 ranked Defenses

When either QB were faced with mediocre Defenses they could compete nicely, but neither were ultimately the best. I’m near positive had we swapped QB’s Brady would’ve faired similar to Rodgers and Vice Versa. Correct me if I’m wrong but Brady didn’t INT that Wilson Pass and Rodgers didn’t Fumble that Onside Kick or repeatedly miss his blocks on Teams.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Damn.... you did a lot of work on that....

Nice job!

 

[saturdaysarebetter]

Yes, thank you for doing all that research.

 

[rmontro]

When either QB were faced with mediocre Defenses they could compete nicely, but neither were ultimately the best. I’m near positive had we swapped QB’s Brady would’ve faired similar to Rodgers and Vice Versa. Correct me if I’m wrong but Brady didn’t INT that Wilson Pass and Rodgers didn’t Fumble that Onside Kick or repeatedly miss his blocks on Teams.

I don't think you can simply exchange two different players and say they would each accomplish what the other did. There is chemistry and intangibles to consider, and I'm just not so certain Rodgers would have seven rings on his fingers, because that is an insane - an unthinkable - amount of rings to have.

I also tend to think Brady was more clutch than Rodgers, although I don't have the stats to prove it, just a hunch.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't think you can simply exchange two different players and say they would each accomplish what the other did. There is chemistry and intangibles to consider, and I'm just not so certain Rodgers would have seven rings on his fingers, because that is an insane - an unthinkable - amount of rings to have.

I also tend to think Brady was more clutch than Rodgers, although I don't have the stats to prove it, just a hunch.

I actually agree there’s no way to tell. You almost have to lean towards Brady coming out better. Point I’m making is Brady always had help from his team. Their Kicker, their D, their ST. He gets all the credit, but those were very well rounded Patriot teams.

My contention is this. Brady did a wonderful job, but he also had near ideal circumstances. No way does Brady transform Rodgers seasons of mediocre to poor level Defenses into SB winning teams. The evidence does not support it. There’s 22 seasons of evidence to support my claim. That doesn’t take away his trophies, but it should humble him to know that his team was absolutely, positively and unequivocally a catalyst for his success. He’s still the best QB to ever play this game. Both can be true.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I also tend to think Brady was more clutch than Rodgers, although I don't have the stats to prove it, just a hunch.

The "eye test". We all saw how cool, calm, and efficient Brady was in playoff games, and how tightly wound Rodgers was in so many postseason games. He made some pretty stupid decisions when he was under pressure, like trying to force passes in to his favorite receivers and ignoring open men.

You watch the "all 22" on some of those games, and you see Packer WRs all alone with nobody within 10 yards of them, waving their arms, and he never even looks their way. I don't remember ever seeing Brady doing mysterious things like that.