As I stated, it was Carroll who laid out the strategy as I described it:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...oll-explains-illfated-call-in-super-bowl-xlix
So, while you may think he could get off 3 running plays in 26 seconds with one timeout, he stated he did not want to take that risk.
1st. down was over at about the 0:56 mark. Seattle could have lined up right away with enough time for 3 more run plays, as you suggest. Carroll said he would have taken the risk with a run on 2nd. down if NE did not have their goal line personnel on the field. But of course they did, and how could it have been otherwise? The fact they let the clock run down before 2nd. down was obviously to keep Brady from getting the ball back with time on the clock.
Belichick was not as loquacious as Carroll (no surprise there) in talking about the 2nd. down play. He said they put in goal line personnel, which they run with 1 or 2 or 3 CBs. What he did not highlight was that NE had 3 CBs on the field in this instance. And if you look at the replay, the ILB was well off the line in pass coverage position; there were no run blitzing backers in place. It seems to me he did in fact anticipate pass.
I find it
far more plausible Belichick assessed the situation and calculated the likelihood of pass on 2nd. down rather than simply getting lost in the moment.