Shields' talks heating up

[rodell330]

Shields' leverage scares me. He should demand twice the contract Burnett got and you really couldn't argue with his logic in wanting that. That is the contract is the gift that keeps on giving........me headaches.

Exactly.

 

[adambr2]

All of that is true, but if the player gets injured during that year (such as an ACL tear), the long term money goes out the window. So if Shields signs the franchise tag, makes $11M next year and tears his ACL, his CAREER earnings would be $14m. He'd be 26 years-old and out of a job.

Still, $11M would be a pretty nice chunk of change for a guy who has made around $3M like you said for his entire career. If Shields is smart, that would probably be enough to set him up for life.

Also, it's unlikely that an ACL tear would end a career at his age assuming a full recovery, given his talent level. I know that's not your point, and I know that football is an inherently dangerous sport. I would still imagine that the number of players playing on a franchise tag who happen to suffer a career ending injury that year is extremely low. Sure, it can happen, but the franchise tag amount, once signed, is guaranteed. It should be enough to set you up for life and then put you again in a situation where you can either test free agency or play for 120% of the previous franchise tag number.

Some players (Finley) will even take out insurance policies on themselves in the event of a career ending injury.

So, it's not a bad deal for a player if they're not playing for way under market value and willing to take on a very tiny risk. Obviously, for highly elite players like Rodgers and Brees, it's not a good deal for them to sign a $18M franchise tag when they are awaiting $60M or so in guarantees on a long-term deal.

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

Still, $11M would be a pretty nice chunk of change for a guy who has made around $3M like you said for his entire career. If Shields is smart, that would probably be enough to set him up for life.

Also, it's unlikely that an ACL tear would end a career at his age assuming a full recovery, given his talent level. I know that's not your point, and I know that football is an inherently dangerous sport. I would still imagine that the number of players playing on a franchise tag who happen to suffer a career ending injury that year is extremely low. Sure, it can happen, but the franchise tag amount, once signed, is guaranteed. It should be enough to set you up for life and then put you again in a situation where you can either test free agency or play for 120% of the previous franchise tag number.

Some players (Finley) will even take out insurance policies on themselves in the event of a career ending injury.

So, it's not a bad deal for a player if they're not playing for way under market value and willing to take on a very tiny risk. Obviously, for highly elite players like Rodgers and Brees, it's not a good deal for them to sign a $18M franchise tag when they are awaiting $60M or so in guarantees on a long-term deal.

My whole point is that given the choice between a one-year $11M contract with the possibility of a longer term contract a year later is less desirable than a four-year $24M contract. You could take out insurance on yourself or stash away your big one year payday, but the long-term security is what every player wants.

Going back to my Henry Melton point, he played under the franchise tag last year and made around $8M. Now, he'll play this year on a one-year deal for around $1M-$2M. If he doesn't have a good year coming off of an ACL tear, he'll bounce around the league for at least the next two years.

I personally don't think any player "wants" to play under the tag.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

All of that is true, but if the player gets injured during that year (such as an ACL tear), the long term money goes out the window. So if Shields signs the franchise tag, makes $11M next year and tears his ACL, his CAREER earnings would be $14m. He'd be 26 years-old and out of a job.

It wouldn´t make a difference if he signed a long-term contract as it´s possible to release him after one season as well and mostly only the signing bonus and the first year salary are guaranteed.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Sheilds for 5.5/yr is a no brainer. As well as he played last year, he deserves more. But other factors such as him coming from un-drafted free agent, nurtured and given the opportunity to play the reps while under achieving the first few years. his size back then was a major disadvantage. He got stronger, tougher, and QUICKER since then. Because the packers allowed him to. GB dumps him back then and he probabally works a 9-5er like the rest of us...... Also he will get the premiere CB $$$ when he shows he can consistently do it year in and year out... 3/4 of the way through the contract and he's still playing at an all-pro level, he will get his.

Tramon..........We are paying full retail price for him. Thompson likes having great starting CBs. In my opinion, the CBs drafted the last few years will be his replacement. Because of cost and nothing else. He's a very good player.

Hayward is a star in the making. SURELY he was hampered by injury last year, more than we know IMO. I expect a push for tramons starting spot this year. He's a stud who just needs time on the field.

House was a favorite of mine. But his injuries are too often. seems like he is getting bigger and stronger, which has helped him stay healthier lately. a good trend. Because we can keep him at an affordable price, and have a great talent in our depths.

Micah Hyde is a stud also. Moving him to safety is a mistake IMO. Let him play CB, and struggle a bit like damn near every great CB does early on. Not like he's bad, just a half step behind consistently. At least he makes the tackle right away. Give him the reps and he will close in on the recievers. get his ints. get his pass defenses. and still be a great tackler. add some age and NFL regiment, he will be punishing for a CB... Safety talk is out of desperation and short sightedness. I understand the logic. And he could do it. But the stud 3rd CB that can blitz, tackle big WRs, and hopefully tighten up his coverage into a strength instead of weakness... Eventually developing into a starter some day possibly. Much more valuable than a under sized safety IMO. You want a safety, draft a safety...

Bush... I was his biggest critic for years. but he has developed into a very good depth guy. Still gets burnt every once in a while. but is a good tackler, and gets his share of ints on not many reps... Special teams ace. we should be happy to have him.

That's 4 good players besides Sheilds and Tramon. Restructuring might not even keep him here if Hayward and Sheilds continue to get better. Or house stays healthy.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Hayward is a star in the making. SURELY he was hampered by injury last year, more than we know IMO. I expect a push for tramons starting spot this year. He's a stud who just needs time on the field.

Don´t think Hayward will ever play on the onside.

 

[Ace]

According to Pro Football Focus, Sam is the 24th best Free Agent Corner available. That number is pretty misleading though because he played the 7th most snaps of anyone above him. If the reports of what he's looking for are true, I agree it's a no brainer.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

According to Pro Football Focus, Sam is the 24th best Free Agent Corner available. That number is pretty misleading though because he played the 7th most snaps of anyone above him. If the reports of what he's looking for are true, I agree it's a no brainer.

Actually they have him ranked 6th in their 2014 free agent rankings:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/02/20/ranking-the-2014-free-agents-cornerbacks/

 

[Ace]

Actually they have him ranked 6th in their 2014 free agent rankings:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/02/20/ranking-the-2014-free-agents-cornerbacks/

Gotcha. I took it from here but I like yours better lol

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/01/01/2014-free-agent-cornerbacks/

 

[rodell330]

Pay the man...or watch him make plays in Detroit or Minnesota!

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

It wouldn´t make a difference if he signed a long-term contract as it´s possible to release him after one season as well and mostly only the signing bonus and the first year salary are guaranteed.

That's not true. All depends on how the contract is structured and the cap hit involved.

 

[Vrill]

I bet Shields get a contract similar to the one Kennan Lewis got with the Saints. It was 5 years for 25.5 million.

 

[rodell330]

I bet Shields get a contract similar to the one Kennan Lewis got with the Saints. It was 5 years for 25.5 million.

But will it be from the Packers? Something tells me TT is content with Williams, Hyde, Heyward, House and Bush. I have a feeling that Hyde will fight it out with House for the outside spot. I pray im wrong but ive seen TT let guys like Jenkins and Woodsoni go because he felt good about his cheaper draft picks and didnt want to "overpay".

 

[adambr2]

If Shields is just looking for $5-6$M, there is no reason that we haven't put his contract behind us by now.

Corner is not a position where you can afford to go into training camp with a lot of questions. Tramon may be gone after next year. Beyond that, we have a ton of question marks. Hayward can be exceptional, but he's not built for outside coverage and his hamstrings have raised some red flags. House hasn't proven to be much more than a decent dime back. Hyde showed some flashes, but he's still a relative unknown.

I'm seeing a somewhat troubling trend. We've handed out bloated contracts to some very average defensive players like Brad Jones and Morgan Burnett. (Can you imagine if Raji had accepted our offer of $8M a year? How bad would that contract look already?) We've let some pretty solid contributors walk in the process, like Jenkins.

I'm struggling to understand why our staff is seemingly having such a difficult time evaluating talent on defense. They SHOULD know best, but the guys they're paying aren't really reflecting that. And we're paying the price with a poor defense that gets really overmatched against elite offenses.

I really think they need to re-evaluate how they measure value on the defensive side of the ball. We can only thank Raji for allowing us to avoid the big one with his decision to turn down an extension.

 

[ExpatPacker]

If TT can sign Shields to a 5-6$M per year contract for four years and doesn't, I would seriously question his judgment.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That's not true. All depends on how the contract is structured and the cap hit involved.

Most contracts are structured in the way that only the base salary of the first year is guaranteed though (aside of the signing bonus of course). Sometimes the second year of a contract is guaranteed as well, mostly for QBs though.

For example the only guaranteed money Clay Matthews got was the $20.5 million signing bonus.

 

[CHIpackFAN]

What would be the cost of releasing Tramon and going after Aqib Talib? Or if we couldn't agree with Shields, how much more would Talib cost? We could have Talib and Shields or Talib and Willams...

Just a random thought.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

What would be the cost of releasing Tramon and going after Aqib Talib? Or if we couldn't agree with Shields, how much more would Talib cost? We could have Talib and Shields or Talib and Willams...

Just a random thought.

If the Packers would release Tramon that would result in $2 million of dead money counting against the cap, but actually saving $7.5 million in cap space for 2014.

I´m not sure what Talib will be asking for, but I don´t think TT will take a look at him considering his numerous off-the-field issues in the past.

 

[Ace]

If the Packers would release Tramon that would result in $2 million of dead money counting against the cap, but actually saving $7.5 million in cap space for 2014.

I´m not sure what Talib will be asking for, but I don´t think TT will take a look at him considering his numerous off-the-field issues in the past.

I agree that Ted will probably not even look his way due to the last part of this comment but I think these are the kind of risk/reward moved Ted needs to start making. If the guy can help the team he needs to be considered regardless of whatever issues he may have. Talib in particular I don't see happening because of the money he will probably be commanding on top of the issues you refer to. But if the price is right and a player can help them win but has issues he needs to look past them and make the move.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I agree that Ted will probably not even look his way due to the last part of this comment but I think these are the kind of risk/reward moved Ted needs to start making. If the guy can help the team he needs to be considered regardless of whatever issues he may have. Talib in particular I don't see happening because of the money he will probably be commanding on top of the issues you refer to. But if the price is right and a player can help them win but has issues he needs to look past them and make the move.

It all depends on whether TT thinks the guy will fit into the locker room. I don´t want him to sign some guys creating troubles there. In this case I have him rather re-sign Shields.

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

Most contracts are structured in the way that only the base salary of the first year is guaranteed though (aside of the signing bonus of course). Sometimes the second year of a contract is guaranteed as well, mostly for QBs though.

For example the only guaranteed money Clay Matthews got was the $20.5 million signing bonus.

While that might be true, it still doesn't address two things:

1. Why would the Packers, or any team, cut a player immediately after signing them to a long-term contract? How bad would Shields have to be next year to be cut at the beginning of Year 2 of a four year deal?
   
2. The cap hit the main determinant between a player staying and going. Depending on the cap hit of being cut, a player might be able to keep collecting checks. (i.e. Morgan Burnett and Brad Jones)

My entire point is that no player would rather play under the tag than sign a long-term contract. Players want the longer term commitment.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

While that might be true, it still doesn't address two things:

1. Why would the Packers, or any team, cut a player immediately after signing them to a long-term contract? How bad would Shields have to be next year to be cut at the beginning of Year 2 of a four year deal?
   
2. The cap hit the main determinant between a player staying and going. Depending on the cap hit of being cut, a player might be able to keep collecting checks. (i.e. Morgan Burnett and Brad Jones)

My entire point is that no player would rather play under the tag than sign a long-term contract. Players want the longer term commitment.

You talked about the danger of suffering a career ending injury while playing under the franchise tag. In this case a player doesn´t have more security by signing a long term deal as he can be cut after one season.

Playing under the franchise tag can help a player make more money in the long term if playing at a higher level than before being tagged.

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

You talked about the danger of suffering a career ending injury while playing under the franchise tag. In this case a player doesn´t have more security by signing a long term deal as he can be cut after one season.

Playing under the franchise tag can help a player make more money in the long term if playing at a higher level than before being tagged.

You talked about contracts and the ease of releasing a player and not having to pay him. My reply was addressing those specific posts.

If a player gets injured (or has a horrible year) while playing under the franchise tag, the player can make significantly less money in the long term.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If a player gets injured (or has a horrible year) while playing under the franchise tag, the player can make significantly less money in the long term.

That´s true. Playing under the tag can work out both ways.

 

[TCHickman24]

I'm not much for hypotheticals but hear me out...

Sign Shields long term, restructure Tramon/move to safety (A la Woodson), draft Gilbert or Dennard in the first, Deone Buchanon in the second.

CB: Shields
CB: Gilbert/ Dennard
SS: Burnett
FS: Williams/ Buchanon