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Season Reflections At Bye Week
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 884050" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>Stat nerds out there are probably familiar with <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/" target="_blank">fivethirtyeight</a>-- Nate Silver's website. He is mostly in the business of political prognostication, but he and his team also create models to predict sporting outcomes. </p><p></p><p>They currently rate the Packers as the 2nd strongest team in football behind only the Chiefs. They predict a 12-4 finish for Green Bay and give them a 95% chance to make the playoffs, a 77% chance to win the NFCN, a 38% chance at a 1st round bye, and a 13% chance at winning a ring. </p><p></p><p>Here are those numbers again with the rest of the division, in the same order as above:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Packers at 2nd: 12-4, 95%, 77%, 38%, 13%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Bears at 14th: 9-7, 63%, 19%, 6%, 2%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Vikings at 17th: 7-9, 21%, 2%, <1%, <1%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Lions at 26th: 6-10, 10%, <1%, <1%, <1%</li> </ul><p>My guess is that the most inaccurate figures at season's end will be the Bears'. I think they'll crater.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 884050, member: 12283"] Stat nerds out there are probably familiar with [URL='https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/']fivethirtyeight[/URL]-- Nate Silver's website. He is mostly in the business of political prognostication, but he and his team also create models to predict sporting outcomes. They currently rate the Packers as the 2nd strongest team in football behind only the Chiefs. They predict a 12-4 finish for Green Bay and give them a 95% chance to make the playoffs, a 77% chance to win the NFCN, a 38% chance at a 1st round bye, and a 13% chance at winning a ring. Here are those numbers again with the rest of the division, in the same order as above: [LIST] [*]Packers at 2nd: 12-4, 95%, 77%, 38%, 13% [*]Bears at 14th: 9-7, 63%, 19%, 6%, 2% [*]Vikings at 17th: 7-9, 21%, 2%, <1%, <1% [*]Lions at 26th: 6-10, 10%, <1%, <1%, <1% [/LIST] My guess is that the most inaccurate figures at season's end will be the Bears'. I think they'll crater. [/QUOTE]
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