Salary cap thread 2016

[PackerDNA]

Just out of curiosity, where was Nate Palmer ranked?

102nd out of 97. Heh.

 

[HardRightEdge]

102nd out of 97. Heh.

A few games into the season, McGinn called Palmer an improvement over the previous "non-entities", which included Barrington. I observed this assessment to be nonsense, watching him fall down in the hole, overrun the hole, and failing to pass ILB 101 in his coverage drops. Those were just the major sins. The guy was a mess.

I inquired of the Captain at the time how PFF ranked him relative Hawk who was getting playing time at OLB in Cincinnati's 4-3 as an injury replacement.

Hawk was scoring around a 50; Palmer was in the 30's. That should tell you something. Palmer might have been an improvement over the 2014 version of Brad Jones, but it's a close call.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Just out of curiosity, where was Nate Palmer ranked?

Palmer finished the season with a grade of 44.8.

 

[Sky King]

It seems like it's not one of my best days around here. I thought it was a short pass to Lynch on the play but it was deep ball. Still, Barrington misreading the play was the reason for Lynch being wide open, not his lack of speed.

Interestingly enough he correctly pursued on the same play earlier in the game and the gain was minimal. Why he played it wrong later was surprising.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

According to the NFLPA the Packers rolled over $6,953,847 of salary cap from the 2015 season into this year.

Here are the numbers for all 32 teams:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...gures-announced-by-nflpa?campaign=Twitter_atn
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...gures-announced-by-nflpa?campaign=Twitter_atn

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

so that 6.95 mil is added to what? 20million?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

so that 6.95 mil is added to what? 20million?

Assuming the salary cap will raise to $155 million for the 2016 season that means the Packers currently have a little bit more than $21 million in cap space available.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Assuming the salary cap will raise to $155 million for the 2016 season that means the Packers currently have a little bit more than $21 million in cap space available.

Right, but as discussed elsewhere there are some minimum subtractions from that number:

- The draft picks need to be accounted for. Figure $2 mil in cap when assuming an offset of minimum salary guys they will replace. Nearly all of that hit comes from the first 2 picks.
- The current cap is for 51 guys. Subtract cap for adding 2 guys to the roster. Minimum salary rookies would be about $1 mil in additional cost.
- Subtract for the practice squad. Another $1 mil in unaccounted for cap cost.
- Figure a rock bottom minimum of $3 mil held in reserve for IR replacements. Remember that guys on IR and their replacements count against the cap. $3 mil gets you about 6 minimum salary rookies as replacements. $5 mil would be more prudent. Unused cap is not just for carryover.

That's about $6 mil in minimum subtractions, taking the effective cap space to $15 mil.

That sounds like a lot until you think about the Packer FAs that need to be re-signed or replaced. End-of-2015 weaknesses that seem to demand draft attention + incumbent free agents cannot all be replaced confidently with draftees and UDFAs.

If one assumed Thompson will retain just Crosby, Starks, Neal and Kuhn, as one example, subtract what you think they'll cost from the provisional $15 mil.

Then think about cap carry forward to 2017 when 3 O-Linemen, the #1 backup in Tretter, Lacy and Hyde become free agents. Barrington, too, may matter by that time. There's a chance Datone Jones will matter as well. Peppers may be done or he'll get a reasonably good 1 year deal if he remains ageless. If done, and no edge rusher emerges in the interim, Thompson may need to go outside.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Right, but as discussed elsewhere there are some minimum subtractions from that number:

- The draft picks need to be accounted for. Figure $2 mil in cap when assuming an offset of minimum salary guys they will replace. Nearly all of that hit comes from the first 2 picks.
- The current cap is for 51 guys. Subtract cap for adding 2 guys to the roster. Minimum salary rookies would be about $1 mil in additional cost.
- Subtract for the practice squad. Another $1 mil in unaccounted for cap cost.
- Figure a rock bottom minimum of $3 mil held in reserve for IR replacements. Remember that guys on IR and their replacements count against the cap. $3 mil gets you about 6 minimum salary rookies as replacements. $5 mil would be more prudent. Unused cap is not just for carryover.

That's about $6 mil in minimum subtractions, taking the effective cap space to $15 mil.

That sounds like a lot until you think about the Packer FAs that need to be re-signed or replaced. End-of-2015 weaknesses that seem to demand draft attention + incumbent free agents cannot all be replaced confidently with draftees and UDFAs.

If one assumed Thompson will retain just Crosby, Starks, Neal and Kuhn, as one example, subtract what you think they'll cost from the provisional $15 mil.

Then think about cap carry forward to 2017 when 3 O-Linemen, the #1 backup in Tretter, Lacy and Hyde become free agents. Barrington, too, may matter by that time. There's a chance Datone Jones will matter as well. Peppers may be done or he'll get a reasonably good 1 year deal if he remains ageless. If done, and no edge rusher emerges in the interim, Thompson may need to go outside.

There's a lot that needs to go on...but the Packers have a lot of cap space. Packers, Seahawks and Panthers all have around $21-22 million in cap space. Of the contending teams in the NFL, only the Bengals have more cap space in 2016.

 

[HardRightEdge]

There's a lot that needs to go on...but the Packers have a lot of cap space. Packers, Seahawks and Panthers all have around $21-22 million in cap space. Of the contending teams in the NFL, only the Bengals have more cap space in 2016.

I outlined the Packer scenario. If you think there's something wrong with it I'll gladly hear it. I can only speak in detail to the Packers situation.

As for those other teams, the number by itself means nothing without looking at unsigned FA's who are not in the top 51, retirements and previous unmet needs. Or for contending teams that have less cap space at the moment, that number may balloon within days after the draft by clearing cap space by cutting underperforming vets. If you want to break down those other teams, I'll gladly read that too.

I didn't mention that last factor with respect to the Packers. There are no likely cut candidates who will yield much cap space.

 

[Wynnebeck]

I thought I read somewhere that the cap could raise to 165 mil, not 155.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I thought I read somewhere that the cap could raise to 165 mil, not 155.

While the NFL won´t announce the exact number until close to the start of the new league year (March 9) but it´s expected to be close to $155 million.

 

[Ace]

McCarthy trolling HARD at the combine LOL

http://espn.go.com/blog/green-bay-p...y-we-might-shock-you-this-year-in-free-agency

 

[Wynnebeck]

I don't see that as trolling. Word around the combine is that people are hearing whispers that the Packers are looking into FA that have been released by their teams and won't count against comp picks for next season. I think they are going to make a mid size splash this year.

 

[Mondio]

I don't see that as trolling. Word around the combine is that people are hearing whispers that the Packers are looking into FA that have been released by their teams and won't count against comp picks for next season. I think they are going to make a mid size splash this year.

I don't think this year will be any different than any other year. I'm sure they go thru this process every year, Ted isn't a guy to just sit on his hands, he's a guy that looks everywhere. Most years we look, we ID guys and usually someone overpays for them and nothing is ever heard.

Look at that Peppers signing, i can't think of a single person that knew that was coming. Not a rumbling anywhere and all of a sudden, Peppers was a Packer. That doesn't happen unless Ted and his staff is working all the time, and where we and the rest of the media don't see it.

I don't think last year was a particularly good year for FA for us. Let's face it, we didn't have many holes and the ones we had didn't offer very attractive options. I'm sure there was a guy or 2 that could have helped. I was also confident heading into the season we had enough to win a super bowl too. The season is long and strange sometimes. I still think we have a pretty good team, but I see a few more options out there this year for areas we could use shoring up, than last year. Now we'll wait and see if they get overpaid by someone else or not.

i'm not one to think that Thompson is going to break from his process because of any "window", his or Rodgers'. he'll continue to make choices that will keep this team competitive and flexible for now and the future.

 

[Poppa San]

McCarthy trolling HARD at the combine LOL

http://espn.go.com/blog/green-bay-p...y-we-might-shock-you-this-year-in-free-agency

He may have made the comment to get ANY agents to talk to them. I'm an agent, I don't waste much time talking to TT about my FA superstar client. I will for my young guy trying to catch on for another season or two and hopefully get his big chance. (originally had big break but that word is taken too literally in Green Bay by the gods of fortune.)

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I outlined the Packer scenario. If you think there's something wrong with it I'll gladly hear it. I can only speak in detail to the Packers situation.

As for those other teams, the number by itself means nothing without looking at unsigned FA's who are not in the top 51, retirements and previous unmet needs. Or for contending teams that have less cap space at the moment, that number may balloon within days after the draft by clearing cap space by cutting underperforming vets. If you want to break down those other teams, I'll gladly read that too.

I didn't mention that last factor with respect to the Packers. There are no likely cut candidates who will yield much cap space.

I was simply providing a balance to your post. You mentioned a lot of things that would count against the cap and, at first blush, painted a bleak picture for the cap. I was simply pointing out that the Packer's cap situation really isn't that dire or even tight. As for breaking things down, I could do that here but the people at overthecap.com have done a much better job than anything I could do here.

 

[PikeBadger]

Next years cap is being reported on CBS Sports as being $155.27 million

 

[Mondio]

He may have made the comment to get ANY agents to talk to them. I'm an agent, I don't waste much time talking to TT about my FA superstar client. I will for my young guy trying to catch on for another season or two and hopefully get his big chance. (originally had big break but that word is taken too literally in Green Bay by the gods of fortune.)

I've read in the past that agents actually like working with Green Bay. Everything is presented in the up and up. You know where you stand, there aren't surprises and game playing. Some people like straightforward. But you're probably right, the agents looking to score huge, aren't going to Green Bay first and I'm ok with that. There's a line between maximizing your clients worth and taking a team to the cleaners. I don't care if the latter ever come knocking

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

21 mil and some change... Id like to see a few of our own guys resigned. but i think there is room for at least one big free agent... Knowing that next year, Peppers 10 mil in cap will go back into the pot. most likely. Ted could splurge this year and regain his cush next year if he chooses to.

 

[jrock645]

Right, but as discussed elsewhere there are some minimum subtractions from that number:

- The draft picks need to be accounted for. Figure $2 mil in cap when assuming an offset of minimum salary guys they will replace. Nearly all of that hit comes from the first 2 picks.
- The current cap is for 51 guys. Subtract cap for adding 2 guys to the roster. Minimum salary rookies would be about $1 mil in additional cost.
- Subtract for the practice squad. Another $1 mil in unaccounted for cap cost.
- Figure a rock bottom minimum of $3 mil held in reserve for IR replacements. Remember that guys on IR and their replacements count against the cap. $3 mil gets you about 6 minimum salary rookies as replacements. $5 mil would be more prudent. Unused cap is not just for carryover.

That's about $6 mil in minimum subtractions, taking the effective cap space to $15 mil.

That sounds like a lot until you think about the Packer FAs that need to be re-signed or replaced. End-of-2015 weaknesses that seem to demand draft attention + incumbent free agents cannot all be replaced confidently with draftees and UDFAs.

If one assumed Thompson will retain just Crosby, Starks, Neal and Kuhn, as one example, subtract what you think they'll cost from the provisional $15 mil.

Then think about cap carry forward to 2017 when 3 O-Linemen, the #1 backup in Tretter, Lacy and Hyde become free agents. Barrington, too, may matter by that time. There's a chance Datone Jones will matter as well. Peppers may be done or he'll get a reasonably good 1 year deal if he remains ageless. If done, and no edge rusher emerges in the interim, Thompson may need to go outside.

Are you sure practice squad counts against the cap? I'd always gotten the impression. It hadn't.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Are you sure practice squad counts against the cap? I'd always gotten the impression. It hadn't.

Article 13, Section 5, paragraph (c) of the NFL CBA rules that all practice squad players count against a team's salary cap.

 

[jrock645]

Article 13, Section 5, paragraph (c) of the NFL CBA rules that all practice squad players count against a team's salary cap.

Ok now I remember... theres no restriction on what you can pay them. Theres the standard rate most get, but you can pay as much as you want in order to keep them, granted you have the money to spend.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Let's recap (pun intended) and update:

The final 2016 team cap numbers are in, including 2015 adjustments:

https://www.nflpa.com/news/all-news/2016-adjusted-team-salary-caps

So, the Packers cap, including carryover and adjustments, is now set at $163.44 mil. The Packers top 51 cap hit now stands at $152.48 mil with the addition of Cook.

Let's keep it simple with a little rounding and call it $11 mil in 2016 cap space remaining before the following subtractions:

1) Subtract the cap hits for the top 2 draft picks; call them roster spots 52 and 53. Last year, the #27 and #55 picks (the Packers 2016 draft positions) had cap numbers (rounded) of $1.6 mil (Byron Jones) and $900,00 (Maxx Williams), respectively. So, we have to subtract $2.5 mil from the cap space bringing it to $8.5 mil.

Note: Thanks to the rookie salary scale, once you get down to the low 3rd. round pick, the difference in cap between that player and first or second year minimum players is negligible. If we assume that whoever among the 3rd. - 7th. round picks end up on the 53 man roster will replace minimum salary 1st. and 2nd. year players, making it a wash. Many teams have mid-to-high priced vets who will be targeted for release to pick up cap space if they can secure replacements in the draft. The Packers do not have any likely candidates in this category.

2) Subtract the cap hits for the practice squad. I'm not finding the 2016 PS minimum at the moment, but the 2015 minimum of $6,600/week will suffice...it won't have gone up much.

10 players x 16 weeks x $6,660 = $1.056mil. Round it to $1 mil. It could be a bit higher if a guy or two is paid above the PS minimum, which the Packers have done from time to time. Was it Shaky Smithson who had a $250,000 number before the injury settlement? I'll stick with the $1 mil.

That takes the cap space down to $7.5 mil.

3) Often overlooked is the fact that guys on IR and PUP count against the cap. Replacing those guys requires cap space. If, for example, 4 guys go to IR before the start of the season and you replaced them with minimum salary rookies, the additional cap cost would be about $2 mil. Then, lets say, 4 guys go to IR during the season averaging 8 missed games apiece. Rookie minimum replacements off the PS would earn 1/2 the minimum for 8 games apiece on the roster. That's an additional $1 mil.

If pressed against the cap starting off, the only way to remedy the IR situation in this example is to cut a vet or vets to get to an aggregate $3 mil in cap savings. There are no likely candidates on the Packers.

By my count, in 2015 the Packers lost 80 regular season player-games to IR, or the equivalent of 5 full season roster spots. That was a low injury year.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2015_injuries.htm

In 2014, I come up with 139 regular season player-game lost to IR, the equivalent of nearly 9 full season roster spots That's closer to the high end.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2014_injuries.htm

2010 may have been the high water mark for games lost. I come up with 143 regular season player-games lost to IR/PUP, again about the equivalent of 9 full season roster spots.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2010_injuries.htm

So, how much cap should be held in reserve for IR replacements? The prudent thing to do is to cover the worst case scenario from recent history, i.e., enough to cover 9 player-season replacements with minimum salary rookie deals, or about $4.5 mil. If you're fortunate to replace only 5 instead of 9 full-season equivalents, you can carry over the $2 million balance to 2017.

Using that $4.5 mil, the remaining usable cap space is $3.0 mil.

If Thompson were to use all of the $3.5 mil for a moderately priced FA or a couple of cheaper ones, there would be no carryover to 2017 except a million or two if the IR count is light this season.

With 2017 being a big FA class, it's hard to see how or why Thompson would be spending any more in FA unless, counter to his proclamations, he's making a big bet on 2016. Kuhn or other minimum salary vets FAs would be an exception, since the cap credits make them hardly more expensive than the minimum salary rookies.

I'd look for a minimum salary vet or two at cut downs if certain developmental guys disappoint in training camp/preseason or if certain players get hurt.

 

[Mondio]

there were a lot of "gahzintahs" in that post ^^^^

Kudos to you for breaking it all down for those of us far too lazy

Much appreciated, and I agree with the final sentiment. a vet minimum guy like Kuhn is all that is probable at this point. I see the rest coming from the draft and possibly some late preseason cuts. I don't see him using up that room now with what's available. and more likely, not using that room at all and carrying over to next year or in reserve for the inevitable roster losses because of injury.