Salary cap thread 2016

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
13,772
Reaction score
4,801
Well, actually I don´t care if the Packers are considered a preseason favourite to win the Super Bowl as long as they end up short of it. I´d rather be like the Panthers, a team no expert pick to play in Santa Clara this week yet they won the NFC by blowing out a team we´re proud of taking into overtime.

I always say I could care less if "experts" have us as contenders...if I look down at the roster and can honestly foresee a playoff birth team I get excited...if not...I lie to myself and get excited :D
 

Mondio

Cheesehead
Joined
Dec 20, 2014
Messages
15,893
Reaction score
3,795
most "experts" are just pundits paid to say stuff. I threw them in their for fun. The meat of the matter is, for the past 2 seasons, i suspect the majority of fans headed into the season with confidence, and for good reason.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
The meat of the matter is, for the past 2 seasons, i suspect the majority of fans headed into the season with confidence, and for good reason.

Well, we fell short of making it to the Super Bowl both times, so that´s debatable.
 

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,070
Reaction score
7,890
Location
Madison, WI
There´s no doubt that Thompson and Ball do a marvelous job of managing the cap. I haven´t seen anyone here advocating for the Packers to sign every top named free agent but it´s possible to sign FA veterans without getting into troubles with the cap.

I may have over stated the desire by some to "Sign every top named free agent" part, but what I meant is people see a Suh, Megatron, Bryant, etc. potentially available to sign and assume doing so will automatically improve the team. Maybe short run, but long run, signing players like that can really handcuff a team down the road when it comes to the cap. Look at the mess Miami is in right now. TT and Ball have successfully avoided those messes, by carefully (sometimes too much) keeping an eye on the cap.

I think most of us agree TT needs to be a bit more active in the FA market, especially when there is a glaring need at a particular position and that need is great enough that only good fortune will fix it with a drafted or developed player. TE and ILB come to mind this year. I don't see anyone on the current roster that makes me say "yup.....they are ready to step up and assume a starting role and have an impact at TE or ILB." Nor do I think they will fill both of those needs this year, via the draft. So something has to happen in the FA dept. regarding one or both positions, IMO.
 
Last edited:

Half Empty

Cheesehead
Joined
Oct 29, 2014
Messages
4,465
Reaction score
598
So what you're saying is there are no guarantees in football? There are a lot of ways to play offense, to play defense, to coach, to prepare, to draft, to acquire players. All have their own set of plusses and minuses. all can end it glory or defeat. I do know that in the past 5-6 years I've gone into every year with the impression we've had a team capable of winning a super bowl. Especially the past 2 years. We've come up short, but when the majority of fans, pundits and experts alike think your team is a super bowl favorite? I'd say it's a pretty good bet, you've acquired some pretty good players and coaches.

Sure, who is arguing with that?
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
According to Rand Gatlin of the NFL Network the salary cap is expected to raise to at least $155 million for the 2016 season. That would leave the Packers with close to $25 million in cap space (that number is without Guion's newly signed contract as no details are available yet).
 

Ace

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 28, 2014
Messages
1,297
Reaction score
94
Location
Milwaukee
According to Rand Gatlin of the NFL Network the salary cap is expected to raise to at least $155 million for the 2016 season. That would leave the Packers with close to $25 million in cap space (that number is without Guion's newly signed contract as no details are available yet).

Well with that, and your post in another thread regarding PFF rankings of top free agents and my free agent wish list is Damon Harrison and Jerrell Freeman.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
Well with that, and your post in another thread regarding PFF rankings of top free agents and my free agent wish list is Damon Harrison and Jerrell Freeman.

With the Packers having re-signed Guion I don't expect Thompson to spend on a defensive lineman in free agency. Freeman played extremely well last season but I would prefer TT to sign a younger ILB.
 
OP
OP
A

adambr2

Cheesehead
Joined
Nov 8, 2012
Messages
4,013
Reaction score
609
According to Rand Gatlin of the NFL Network the salary cap is expected to raise to at least $155 million for the 2016 season. That would leave the Packers with close to $25 million in cap space (that number is without Guion's newly signed contract as no details are available yet).

Is that with or without the rollover from 2015? Seems a little on the low side to me.
 

Mexican Packer

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 18, 2016
Messages
18
Reaction score
2
If you look at the 2011 and 2012 drafts you will notice that TT miss 85% of those picks and thats the reason we have plenty of cap space even with some big contracts (rodgers, clay, peppers, shields) (jordy, cobb, daniels, o-line)
from 2011 only randall cobb remians on the team
and from 2012 only mike daniels is under contract (hayward and perry FA)
thats also one of the reasons we havent been able to compete against top NFC teams in the last seasons
 

Sunshinepacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Messages
5,766
Reaction score
896
With the Packers having re-signed Guion I don't expect Thompson to spend on a defensive lineman in free agency. Freeman played extremely well last season but I would prefer TT to sign a younger ILB.

If Harrison is available for a decent price (as in $4-5 million per which is actually a top salary for a 3-4 NT) then I would be all for TT signing him. Guion could be nice depth but Harrison is a much better NT than Guion.
 
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
According to Rand Gatlin of the NFL Network the salary cap is expected to raise to at least $155 million for the 2016 season. That would leave the Packers with close to $25 million in cap space (that number is without Guion's newly signed contract as no details are available yet).
Let's consider the other cap subtractions before any further free agent signings could be considered.

You have to subtract $2 mil from that $25 mil (assuming a $155 mil cap for 2016) for the top draft picks assuming they take the spots of guys at the bottom of the 51. That takes us down to $23 mil.

By the time the season starts it will be 53 + 10 on the practice squad going against the cap, not the offseason/preseason 51.

Let's call Guion #52. That 3 year / $11.25 mil deal is not the kind of contract where you typically see a substantial signing bonus laying off any meaningful cap hit to future years. For example, Neal's 2 year / $8 mil deal had a $2.5 mil signing bonus but the cap hit was spread fairly evenly: year 1 was $3.75 mil vs. $4.25 mil in year 2.

For Guion, I'd estimate the 2016 cap hit at $3 mil. That would take us down to $20 mil in cap space.

The #53 will cost a half mil assuming that spot is taken by a minimum salary rookie. The cap space tally is now $19.5 mil.

Now we have to add the 10 practice squad guys. That's about $1 mil. We're down $18.5 mil

The Top 51 number does not include the dead cap already on the books for 2016. That's $678,593 according to Over the Cap. Let's round it down to a half mil taking us down to $18 mil.

We can't forget about IR replacements. Guys on IR count against the cap as do their replacements. Let's say for sake of argument a somewhat average count of 7 IR players. If you replace them with minimum salary rookies at around a half mil each, that's $3.5 mil against the cap, taking us down to $14.5 mil cap space. $5 mil in reserve is probably a more prudent amount in the event of a season like 2010 where about dozen guys ended up on IR, but lets stick with the $3.5 mil in reserve. You'd not want to be in a position to have to release a guy you'd rather not in order to clear space in the middle of the season just to fill the roster and stay under the cap.

In the vein of cutting players to clear meaningful cap space, there aren't any candidates. Cutting Datone Jones would clear about $1.5 mil before replacing him. A minimum salary rookie in his stead takes the net down to $1 mil. That's not going to happen (even if it should) since he'll be given one more year to demonstrate if he can fill Peppers' shoes (which he won't come close to doing). Oh, heck, I shouldn't be so ******* Jones. He's worth a mil in cap space space. 2017 will be another matter. Cutting Masthay would clear $1.3 mil, but his replacement still has to be paid; a minimum salary rookie replacement doesn't quite net $1 mil in cap savings.

So, that's $14.5 mil to work with or maybe $15.5 mil after replacing Masthay with a cheap rookie. If anybody would like to see any of the Packer free agents in the following link resigned (except for Guion who's already on board), take whatever you think their cap hits would be less the half mil for the minimum salary rookies I've assumed in their stead above and subtract it from the $14.5 mil or $15.5 mil:

http://overthecap.com/free-agency/green-bay-packers

Some of those players will need to be resigned from a depth standpoint. They cannot all be replaced with rookies. Choose your poisons.

Now lets look at what Thompson may have in mind for conserving cap to carryover to 2017.

Current cap commitments for 2017 total $113 mil for only 25 players under contract, or perhaps more accurately $116 mil for 26 players when adding Guion. Guestimating $160 mil cap for 2017, that's about $44 mil in available space for 2017 plus whatever Thomson carries over. That sounds like a lot until you look at the free agents after 2016:

http://overthecap.com/free-agency/green-bay-packers

There really isn't much room for free agency spending this year when taking the 2 year perspective. I'll refrain from repeating my outlook from last year vis a vis the implications of these numbers come 2017 other that to say I don't see anything to change my mind.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
The Top 51 number does not include the dead cap already on the books for 2016. That's $678,593 according to Over the Cap. Let's round it down to a half mil taking us down to $18 mil.

Mostly agree with what you´re saying but the dead money is already accounted for in the $25 million cap space for the 2016 season.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
If Harrison is available for a decent price (as in $4-5 million per which is actually a top salary for a 3-4 NT) then I would be all for TT signing him. Guion could be nice depth but Harrison is a much better NT than Guion.

If Harrison agrees to a deal like that I will be pissed off that Thompson decided to re-sign Guion to a similar contract.
 
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
If Harrison agrees to a deal like that I will be pissed off that Thompson decided to re-sign Guion to a similar contract.
Guion can play all 3 positions in the base line plus 3-tech in nickel/dime packages.

Harrison adds little in the pass rush. He's a classic 350 lb. NT. And you have to wonder if he looked better than he is playing between Wilkerson and Williams. Do you really want to spend that money on a 2 down player that might not add much over Pennel, a guy who was pretty stout against the run, showed a couple of flashes in the pass rush, and was still on the developmental upswing as the season progressed?

Consider the following career pass rush stats for Harrison using sportingcharts.com data:

snaps: 1551
sacks: 1.5
hurries (if you happen to value that stat): 12
pass deflections: 0

Those are Raji-like pass rush numbers from recent years.

With a projected base line of Guion (strong side)-Pennel-Daniels (weak side), I think there are bigger fish to fry (or perhaps "smaller" fish is more apt. ;))

Assuming Raji is gone, which is a fair assumption, there is a depth/rotational issue, but the D-Line play in base run defense looked pretty darn good last season, whether it was Raji or Pennel at the nose.

I think Harrison's value-add would not justify the pay he'd get. A DE who can provide some pass rush would add more value, the guy Jones was supposed to be when he was drafted. Those guys are hard to find, and when you find them they cost cap or draft capital, so I don't hold out much hope that need will be filled. It's more realistic to think resources will be applied to more notable weaknesses.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Sunshinepacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Messages
5,766
Reaction score
896
If Harrison agrees to a deal like that I will be pissed off that Thompson decided to re-sign Guion to a similar contract.

To be fair to Thompson, from what I understand Guion's contract is very heavily incentivized; about $4.1 million of his deal are game day bonuses, workout bonuses and roster bonuses.
 

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,070
Reaction score
7,890
Location
Madison, WI
To be fair to Thompson, from what I understand Guion's contract is very heavily incentivized; about $4.1 million of his deal are game day bonuses, workout bonuses and roster bonuses.

Which, if they are looking at resigning Raji, would hopefully be the way they would structure his contract. Let these guys who have had up and down years get paid for the kind of year they actually produce.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
Guion can play all 3 positions in the base line plus 3-tech in nickel/dime packages.

Harrison adds little in the pass rush. He's a classic 350 lb. NT. And you have to wonder if he looked better than he is playing between Wilkerson and Williams. Do you really want to spend that money on a 2 down player that might not add much over Pennel, a guy who was pretty stout against the run, showed a couple of flashes in the pass rush, and was still on the developmental upswing as the season progressed?

Consider the following career pass rush stats for Harrison using sportingcharts.com data:

snaps: 1551
sacks: 1.5
hurries (if you happen to value that stat): 12
pass deflections: 0

Those are Raji-like pass rush numbers from recent years.

With a projected base line of Guion (strong side)-Pennel-Daniels (weak side), I think there are bigger fish to fry (or perhaps "smaller" fish is more apt. ;))

Assuming Raji is gone, which is a fair assumption, there is a depth/rotational issue, but the D-Line play in base run defense looked pretty darn good last season, whether it was Raji or Pennel at the nose.

I think Harrison's value-add would not justify the pay he'd get. A DE who can provide some pass rush would add more value, the guy Jones was supposed to be when he was drafted. Those guys are hard to find, and when you find them they cost cap or draft capital, so I don't hold out much hope that need will be filled. It's more realistic to think resources will be applied to more notable weaknesses.

Harrison is most likely the best run defending nose tackles in the league. It's true that he doesn't offer anything rushing the passer but Guion only had a total of 3 1/2 pressures playing 5-technique last season.

To be fair to Thompson, from what I understand Guion's contract is very heavily incentivized; about $4.1 million of his deal are game day bonuses, workout bonuses and roster bonuses.

It's actually $4.3 million with $150K of it not counting against the cap because the league deems him playing in 16 games as unlikely because of his suspension last year.

He only has to play to earn all of that money though, there aren't any performance based incentives included in the contract.
 
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
Harrison is most likely the best run defending nose tackles in the league. It's true that he doesn't offer anything rushing the passer but Guion only had a total of 3 1/2 pressures playing 5-technique last season.
I have in mind Guion's 2014 season. Now, no one will confuse him with the better pass rushing DEs, but he can chip in, something Harrison has never provided.

By the way, how many snaps did Guion take at 5 technique on pass plays last season?

I can't say I'd ever want to pay for the best run defending NT is the league if that's the only thing he can do.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
14,262
Reaction score
5,661
A similar argument can be made about overhauling our RB position and bringing in a Matt Forte type guy at big $
IF we pick up someone in FA it should be at LB, TE, OT depth or Punter IMO (unless it's a ridiculously good deal)
It's just my opinion but 2 of those 4 should be addressed prior to the draft Those were our glaring weaknesses and FA is a nice tool to find a proven commodity vs a mid-long term project.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
IF we pick up someone in FA it should be at LB, TE, OT depth or Punter IMO (unless it's a ridiculously good deal).

There's no need to add a punter via free agency. I would be fine with spending a late-round pick on the position though.
 

sdh09e44

Cheesehead
Joined
Sep 1, 2015
Messages
149
Reaction score
12
If Harrison is available for a decent price (as in $4-5 million per which is actually a top salary for a 3-4 NT) then I would be all for TT signing him. Guion could be nice depth but Harrison is a much better NT than Guion.

eh. I think Reed or Robinson from Bama, or Billings from Baylor are DTs that can be super effective from day 1. Id rather go with one of those guys then invest money in a FA. Defintely want to see FA money spent on Trevathan, Forte, Green, or Demario Davis. Mark Barron perhaps too. Barron can be that hydrid type player like Buchannon is for the cardinals. We need that.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
eh. I think Reed or Robinson from Bama, or Billings from Baylor are DTs that can be super effective from day 1. Id rather go with one of those guys then invest money in a FA. Defintely want to see FA money spent on Trevathan, Forte, Green, or Demario Davis. Mark Barron perhaps too. Barron can be that hydrid type player like Buchannon is for the cardinals. We need that.

I would be extremely disappointed if the Packers bring in Demario Davis. He wouldn't be an upgrade over the inside linebackers currently on the roster.
 

Members online

No members online now.

Latest posts

Top