Roster predictions

[Deleted member 6794]

But they seem to have 8 players that would be good to keep and probably a maximum of 7 spots.

Moore and Davis haven't shown anything worth of keeping on the roster so far. Unfortunately it seems the Packers will be forced to keep the latter making things complicated though.

 

[Dantés]

Moore and Davis haven't shown anything worth of keeping on the roster so far. Unfortunately it seems the Packers will be forced to keep the latter making things complicated though.

I would disagree that they’ve shown nothing. Moore had a tough game with drops, but there’s a lot of ability there that he’s demonstrated at other times. He just needs to get his confidence back. You certainly wouldn’t want to give up on a guy with his talent.

Davis was making some plays in camp and is a good punt returner. He’s certainly worthy of an NFL roster.

The position is just crowded.

 

[Dantés]

It’s funny to me that the Packers drafted Madison to be a swing OG/OT, then signed Bell for that role when Madison didn’t show, and now it looks like Pankey is going to step up and be that guy. Good for him.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think keeping Allison is safer and the most likely outcome. I’m just musing over a possibility if the Kumerow hype turns out to be real. Most fans are trying to come with ideas for how they might manage to cut Davis. What if it was Allison?

I think if the Packers had a more experienced group of WR's, Allison might be on the bubble, but they don't and I just don't see how they could decide to start the season with only 2 WR's with NFL experience. Sure, Davis will probably make the team due to his punt return capability, but I don't consider him catching 8 passes during the regular season to be much experience at WR, nor has he shown that he is a starting caliber WR. Allison himself only has 35 career catches, that isn't that reassuring either, especially from a 3rd year UDFA, but at least he has had a lot of snaps at WR.

 

[BrokenArrow]

MVS didn't even return a single punt in college. He's not a viable option entering this season.

You seem to be under the false impression that he would be the first player to have never returned a punt until joining the NFL. Sorry, but as much as you jones for Davis, he's not worth losing any one of these three rookies. They all have way too much upside and Davis doesn't. Davis is a bust at WR. You don't keep guys like that unless they're in the Desmond Howard mold. Davis isn't. Either way, I don't really care who returns punts as long as they can catch the ball.

 

[BrokenArrow]

They haven’t tried him there and he never did it in college. He doesn’t profile as the type.

I’m not trying to be contrarian. I’m just pointing out that if you cut Davis, it creates an issue.

It creates a minor issue. I'd much rather deal with that issue than to lose a quality WR to another team while trying to hide him on the PS. Remember Taysom Hill?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You seem to be under the false impression that he would be the first player to have never returned a punt until joining the NFL. Sorry, but as much as you jones for Davis, he's not worth losing any one of these three rookies. They all have way too much upside and Davis doesn't.

That's my problem too, sacrificing a roster spot for someone with a lot more potential than Davis has shown at WR, just because he may be just a bit better than the next best guy at returning punts. I'm not down playing the importance of having a solid return guy, but as you point out, that is a position that a guy can learn and learn a lot easier than playing wide receiver well.

I also do recognize as a fan of the Packers, I probably put way too much hope and positive spins on the development of Wide Receivers. Thinking that a guy is going to blossom into the next Donald Driver, just because of some great receptions in college or high end speed, size, etc. I am guessing every team has a bounty of wide receivers that their fans are clamoring about, since it is a high profile position. However, in the end, only so many make the team and for the last how many years, those guy on the lower end of the Packer WR depth chart haven't really done much to warrant all the hype and excitement about their future.

 

[Dantés]

It creates a minor issue. I'd much rather deal with that issue than to lose a quality WR to another team while trying to hide him on the PS. Remember Taysom Hill?

You mean the oft injured 27 year old rookie who has never thrown a pass in an NFL game but who Green Bay fans mysteriously pine away for? Yes, I think I remember him.

If the Packers don’t have a viable punt returner, I don’t consider that a minor issue. I’m not saying someone can’t possibly emerge that I don’t see. But right now it would seem that the options are to either keep Davis or use Alexander and expose him to injury.

 

[Dantés]

That's my problem too, sacrificing a roster spot for someone with a lot more potential than Davis has shown at WR, just because he may be just a bit better than the next best guy at returning punts. I'm not down playing the importance of having a solid return guy, but as you point out, that is a position that a guy can learn and learn a lot easier than playing wide receiver well.

I also do recognize as a fan of the Packers, I probably put way too much hope and positive spins on the development of Wide Receivers. Thinking that a guy is going to blossom into the next Donald Driver, just because of some great receptions in college or high end speed, size, etc. I am guessing every team has a bounty of wide receivers that their fans are clamoring about, since it is a high profile position. However, in the end, only so many make the team and for the last how many years, those guy on the lower end of the Packer WR depth chart haven't really done much to warrant all the hype and excitement about their future.

I completely understand and share the desire to keep all of the young talent at WR. And it’s not because they’re all going to turn into Donald Driver, but rather because if you keep all three, you’re tripping your chance of hitting on that gem.

That said, Davis is definitely a lot more than “a bit better option” than the next best guy other than maybe Alexander.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That said, Davis is definitely a lot more than “a bit better option” than the next best guy other than maybe Alexander.

Currently, yes I would agree with you, but that can change pretty quickly. There is no doubt in my mind that right now, Davis is the guy with his name written down at the top of the depth chart for returning punts. However, given that he is injured, 3 preseason games left and probably the desire to keep a younger WR on the roster, I can totally see his job security not being that solid.

 

[PackFan2]

Can't Rollins function as a returner? I know he was **** poor yesterday, but given his youth I see them keeping him over House tbf. This would also make room for Davis to be cut and MVS to be added. Moore to be stashed on the PS.

I think Zook said something to the effect that he would like the PS and KR positions to be someone on offense (or at least someone who had some offensive experience Micah Hyde was ex QB). I think we are still missing that dynamic piece, that one hit home run. Someone like a Tarik Cohen, Tyler Lockett, or Marquise Goodwin. Cobb definitely used to be in that role but it's dissipated. Our WR corps last year had the worst average top speed. Gutee probably took that into consideration. MVS and the rooks maybe that missing X speed factor we needed. I also don't see Davis making the team as the way things are right now, but we still have three preseason games left.

 

[PackFan2]

On the other hand, looking at other games and roster. Dam* I was right bout that Colorado RB Philip Lindsay. Playmaker. Denver is stacked at RB, but I highly doubt Lindsay will get cut but if he does for some odd reason. pick up the kid!
Lion's RB Kerryon Johnson looked smooth and blocked well in preseason . If he plays like that, he'd push out Abdulla. Bengals are stacked in edge rush department. Jordan Willis might be the odd man out, with Lawson rising and recent draft in Sam Hubbard.
Lastly, Shaquem Griffin, doing Shaquem Griffin things. Straight ballin. Any other players/stacked positions on other teams y'all see?

 

[PackFan2]

Currently, yes I would agree with you, but that can change pretty quickly. There is no doubt in my mind that right now, Davis is the guy with his name written down at the top of the depth chart for returning punts. However, given that he is injured, 3 preseason games left and probably the desire to keep a younger WR on the roster, I can totally see his job security not being that solid.

I agreed to both. Hypothetically speaking, if Davis is not currently injured he would definitely be the best option right now. However, Like pokerbrat said, Davis being hurt has allowed other players to step up. With the way the WR are playing and looking right now, Davis's chances of making the roster is dwindling.

 

[PackFan2]

I would disagree that they’ve shown nothing. Moore had a tough game with drops, but there’s a lot of ability there that he’s demonstrated at other times. He just needs to get his confidence back. You certainly wouldn’t want to give up on a guy with his talent.

Davis was making some plays in camp and is a good punt returner. He’s certainly worthy of an NFL roster.

The position is just crowded.

I remember when everyone was call to cut Davante Adams.. Not saying Moore is the next Adams but he definitely has that body control. Moore also had tough games in college where he dropped very easy passes. I do hope he keeps his head held high and performs well. His locker room interviewer he was quite down on himself, but that's IMO what makes a good football player- gotta learn from it and grow. Hope this week the QBs throws his way (how Rodgers kept throwing to Adams to boost confidence).

 

[PackFan2]

This years roster was the hardest for me. It went down to the wire and wanting to send a bunch of young guys to PS but no room. Still too early but here Version 1.0

Offense
QB: Rodgers, Hundley, Kizer(3).

• Packers usually carries two backups.

RB: Williams, Montgomery, Ripkowski, Bougnon* (4)

• Jones suspended two games. Not high on Devante Mays. Either Bouagnon or Kerridge makes it then gets stash on PS once Jones comes back.

TE: Graham, Lewis, Kendricks(3)

• Expect to run two TE sets. Will see both Lewis and Graham on field. Graham is basically a WR. Lewis's catching ability is underrated.

WR: Adams, Cobb, Allison, Moore, St. Brown, MVS (6)

• Davis couldn't make the cut. It was hard cutting Kumerow but could win a spot with the way hes currently playing.

OT: Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Spriggs, Murphy (4)

• Horrid backups... HORRID... Spriggs and Murphy really need to step up their game. PLZ help

OG: Taylor, McCray, Pankey (3)

• Pankey is holdover from last year ps. played across o-line except Center. active week 2 but really took a redshirt. Rather have Pankey than Bell but could go the other way around.

OC: Linsley, Patrick (2)

• Patrick is someone who has played across the line. Versatile. I think he could start for a team. Glad hes on our team. Dillon Day could be someone who finds himself on the roster too.

Defense
DL: Daniels, Clark, Wilkerson, Lowry, Adams (5)

• Stud DL.

ILB: Martinez, Burks, Thomas, Martini (4)

• Martinez is solid. Tackling machine. Creating turnovers and hes in pro bowl talks.
• Burks will be right behind Martinez, clean up role with his athletic ability. Burks speed will allow him to stay with some RB and TE. Finally some speed.

OLB: Matthews, Perry, Gilbert, Odom, Biegel(5)

• OLB needs to step up. Hope Pettine finds ways for them to wreck havoc.

CB: Williams, King, Alexander, House, Jackson, Pipkins (6)

• Williams still got it.

S: Clinton-Dix, Brice, Jones, Evans, Whitehead (5)

• Expecting Jones and Evans to play dime linebackers packages

ST: Crosby, Scott, Bradley (3)

• Scott seems to be the real deal thus far. Keep it going. Stay healthy Bradley.

Suspended: Jones
Retired/DNR: Cole Madison

Practice Squad:
WR Kumerow, QB Boyle, EDGE Donnerson, RB Mays, DL Looney, OL Light, CB Waters, TE Byrd, *two more from free agent cuts

 

[OldSchool101]

I think we’re putting too much emphasis on 1 preseason game. While I’m not high on Davis, I don’t think EQ necessarily bumps him off the Depth chart completely.
Right now I’m watching MVS closely to see if he can string a few together, he’s the most exciting rookie receiver this far. I think J’mon Moore will wake up during these next few games. I havnt seen enough of EQ to be pencilling him as our #6 or whatever just yet.

I’ve enjoyed the roster guesses in here. I know that takes a lot of work and definitely makes you rack your brain on who to cut or keep.

 

[PackFan2]

I think we’re putting too much emphasis on 1 preseason game. While I’m not high on Davis, I don’t think EQ necessarily bumps him off the Depth chart completely.
Right now I’m watching MVS closely to see if he can string a few together, he’s the most exciting rookie receiver this far. I think J’mon Moore will wake up during these next few games. I havnt seen enough of EQ to be pencilling him as our #6 or whatever just yet.

Davis not practicing, not sure if he will suit up. This doesnt help his case. Hope Moore gets his confidence back this game.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I would disagree that they’ve shown nothing. Moore had a tough game with drops, but there’s a lot of ability there that he’s demonstrated at other times. He just needs to get his confidence back. You certainly wouldn’t want to give up on a guy with his talent.

Moore hasn't proven that he belongs on an NFL roster since the Packers drafted him in April. That might change over the next three weeks though.

It’s funny to me that the Packers drafted Madison to be a swing OG/OT, then signed Bell for that role when Madison didn’t show, and now it looks like Pankey is going to step up and be that guy. Good for him.

The Packers already signed Bell at the end of May.

You seem to be under the false impression that he would be the first player to have never returned a punt until joining the NFL. Either way, I don't really care who returns punts as long as they can catch the ball.

Can you name a successful punt returner at the pro level who never returned a single one in college as well??? It's definitely not smart to not care about the punt returner but about the #6 or #7 receiver on the roster who will most likely be inactive for all games.

I'd much rather deal with that issue than to lose a quality WR to another team while trying to hide him on the PS. Remember Taysom Hill?

Hill hasn't done anything at the pro level that makes me feel bad about losing him to the Saints last season.

That's my problem too, sacrificing a roster spot for someone with a lot more potential than Davis has shown at WR, just because he may be just a bit better than the next best guy at returning punts. I'm not down playing the importance of having a solid return guy, but as you point out, that is a position that a guy can learn and learn a lot easier than playing wide receiver well.

It seems a lot of fans underestimated the importance of special teams. The Packers played a total of 424 snaps on ST last season which is approximately 40% of the offensive or defensive snaps and definitely a lot more than the sixth or seventh receiver on the depth chart will ever play. Therefore it's fine to have some players only excelling in this phase of the game on the roster.

Currently, yes I would agree with you, but that can change pretty quickly. There is no doubt in my mind that right now, Davis is the guy with his name written down at the top of the depth chart for returning punts. However, given that he is injured, 3 preseason games left and probably the desire to keep a younger WR on the roster, I can totally see his job security not being that solid.

There hasn't been any other player taking advantage as a punt returner of Davis not being able to practice.

I agreed to both. Hypothetically speaking, if Davis is not currently injured he would definitely be the best option right now. However, Like pokerbrat said, Davis being hurt has allowed other players to step up.

Unfortunately there hasn't another player stepped up as a punt returner. Davis will make the roster because of it.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It seems a lot of fans underestimated the importance of special teams. The Packers played a total of 424 snaps on ST last season which is approximately 40% of the offensive or defensive snaps and definitely a lot more than the sixth or seventh receiver on the depth chart will ever play. Therefore it's fine to have some players only excelling in this phase of the game on the roster.

That # of 424 snaps might be a bit deceiving when talking about Davis and punt returns, since I assume it includes all plays by both offensive and defensive units for FG and Xtra Points, Kickoffs and Punts. Davis only returned 24 punts last year.

While I agree with you that it is an important position, if I have the choice between 2 guys, one with a possible future as a starter and one who doesn't, I would choose the guy with the potential as long as he showed that he can be a guy that is close to the level of Davis at returning punts.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That # of 424 snaps might be a bit deceiving when talking about Davis and punt returns, since I assume it includes all plays by both offensive and defensive units for FG and Xtra Points, Kickoffs and Punts. Davis only returned 24 punts last year.

True, Davis played a total of 172 snaps on special teams though.

While I agree with you that it is an important position, if I have the choice between 2 guys, one with a possible future as a starter and one who doesn't, I would choose the guy with the potential as long as he showed that he can be a guy that is close to the level of Davis at returning punts.

I agree with that but unfortunately it seems the Packers don't have an adequate replacement for Davis as a returner.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Can you name a successful punt returner at the pro level who never returned a single one in college as well??? It's definitely not smart to not care about the punt returner but about the #6 or #7 receiver on the roster who will most likely be inactive for all games.

Definitely, you say? That's debatable. If you have a great offense, you don't need a great punt returner. They are a luxury. All you need is a guy who can reliably field the ball and let the offense do it's job. Hell, give the job back to Cobb. He's by far the most experience returner on the team. I'd rather do that than keep Davis over any of our three rookies unless one of them just completely bombs over the next 2 weeks.

Now let's dispel with the myth that Davis is one of the elite returners in the NFL. Being a great returner entails FAR more than just yards per return. He has to be fearless and make solid split-second decisions. How many times did we watch Davis field punts not only inside the 10 yard line, but even inside the 5 yard line? How many times did we watch him call for fair catches with nobody within 10 yards? How many times did he let the ball go over his head when he shouldn't have? Let's do some objective analysis on Davis's value as a punt returner. Obviously he was 3rd in the NFL in yards per return at 12.0. But let's look at how many yards he averaged every time he fielded a punt and compare him to the other guys in the top half of the league in yards per return.

The format here will be: Name: <punts returned>-<punts fielded>-<yards>-<percentage of punts returned>-<yards per punt fielded>

1. Agnew: 29 - 45 - 447 - 64.4% - 9.9
2. Cooper: 32 - 40 - 399 - 80% - 10.0
3. Davis: 24 - 46 - 289 - 52% - 6.3
4. Campanaro: 26 - 47- 291 - 57.8% - 6.5
5. Mickens: 27 - 46- 287 - 58.7% - 6.3
6. Tate: 20 - 26 - 193 - 76.9% - 7.4
7. Sherels: 39 - 63 - 372 - 61.9% - 5.9
8. Benjamin: 27 - 52 - 257 - 52% - 4.9
9. Cohen: 29 - 44 - 272 - 66% - 6.3
10. Taylor: 30 - 46 - 281 - 65.2% - 6.1
11. Barner: 27 - 42 - 240 - 64.1% - 5.7
12. Switzer: 29 - 39 - 256 - 74.3% - 6.5
13. McKenzie: 21 - 39 - 183 - 53% - 4.7
14. Amendola: 27 - 45 - 231 - 60% - 5.1
15. Jackson: 32 - 43 - 290 - 74.4% - 6.7
16. Hill: 25 - 32 - 204 - 78% - 6.4

Davis fielded 46 punts last year. He returned the ball 24 times total. That's 52% of his touches, which was one of the lowest percentages in the league. That tells me two things: First, he's not a natural at the position. Two, he is either afraid to take a hit or he cherry picks his returns when the blocking looks good. Either way, his yards per return does not equate to his value on the field as a punt returner. He left a lot of yards on the field. Even though his YPR is right behind Cooper, it's clear he's not even close to being in the same league as the top two guys. The only guys on this list I would place him ahead of would be Travis Benjamin, Danny Amendola and Isaiah McKenzie. Sherels, Barner and Taylor also averaged less, but they returned a much higher percentage which indicates to me that they left fewer yards on the field and made fewer ill-advised fair catches. Don't think the Packers aren't well aware of this too.

The bottom line is this: Davis was only about 12th best in terms of overall production. As a returner, with everything the position entails, he's only marginally above average and not worth exposing any of our high-upside rookies to the waiver wire or PS.

 

[Mondio]

Davis had some really nice returns, they were balanced out to a degree with bad decisions. He does not look natural back there to me. Find someone that can field it cleanly and replacing him is half over. The only other part would be for one of those young guys at WR to show something and Davis is gone.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Definitely, you say? That's debatable. If you have a great offense, you don't need a great punt returner. They are a luxury. All you need is a guy who can reliably field the ball and let the offense do it's job. Hell, give the job back to Cobb. He's by FAR the most experience returner on the team. I'd rather do that than keep Davis over any of our three rookies unless one of them just completely bombs over the next 2 weeks.

Now let's dispel with the myth that Davis is one of the elite returners in the NFL. Being a great returner entails FAR more than just yards per return. He has to be fearless and make solid split-second decisions. How many times did we watch Davis field punts not only inside the 10 yard line, but even inside the 5 yard line? How many times did we watch him call for fair catches with nobody within 10 yards? Let's do some objective analysis on Davis's value as a punt returner. Obviously he was 3rd in the NFL in yards per return at 12.0. But let's look at how many yards he averaged every time he took the field as a punt returner and compare him to the other guys in the top half of the league in yards per return.

The format here will be: Name: <returns>-<appearances as a returner>-<yards>-<percentage of punts returned>-<yards per appearance>

1. Agnew: 29 - 45 - 447 - 64.4% - 9.9
2. Cooper: 32 - 40 - 399 - 80% - 10.0
3. Davis: 24 - 46 - 289 - 52% - 6.3
4. Campanaro: 26 - 47- 291 - 57.8% - 6.5
5. Mickens: 27 - 46- 287 - 58.7% - 6.3
6. Tate: 20 - 26 - 193 - 76.9% - 7.4
7. Sherels: 39 - 63 - 372 - 61.9% - 5.9
8. Benjamin: 27 - 52 - 257 - 52% - 4.9
9. Cohen: 29 - 44 - 272 - 66% - 6.3
10. Taylor: 30 - 46 - 281 - 65.2% - 6.1
11. Barner: 27 - 42 - 240 - 64.1% - 5.7
12. Switzer: 29 - 39 - 256 - 74.3% - 6.5
13. McKenzie: 21 - 39 - 183 - 53% - 4.7
14. Amendola: 27 - 45 - 231 - 60% - 5.1
15. Jackson: 32 - 43 - 290 - 74.4% - 6.7
16. Hill: 25 - 32 - 204 - 78% - 6.4

Davis lined up to return punts 46 times last year. He returned the ball 24 times total. That's 52%, which was one of the lowest percentages in the league. That tells me two things: First, he's not a natural at the position. Two, he is either afraid to take a hit or he cherry picks his returns when the blocking looks good. Either way, his yards per return does not equate to his value on the field as a punt returner. He left a lot of yards on the field. Even though his YPR is right behind Cooper, it's clear he's not even close to being in the same league as the top two guys. The only guys on this list I would place him ahead of would be Travis Benjamin, Danny Amendola and Isaiah McKenzie. Sherels, Barner and Taylor also averaged less, but they returned a much higher percentage which indicates to me that they left fewer yards on the field and made fewer ill-advised fair catches. Don't think the Packers aren't well aware of this too.

The bottom line is this: Davis was only about 12th best in terms of overall production. As a returner, with everything the position entails, he's only marginally above average and not worth exposing any of our high-upside rookies to the waiver wire or PS.

I'm not interested in double checking your numbers for the entire league but it seems they're at least off for the Packers and Davis as the Packers forced a total of 67 punts last season with him being on the field for the majority of it.

There's no doubt he has to make better decisions on which punts to return or field though.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Moore and Davis haven't shown anything worth of keeping on the roster so far. Unfortunately it seems the Packers will be forced to keep the latter making things complicated though.

While Moore showed terrible drops, the simple fact that he had that many targets seems to imply that he was REALLY good at getting open. Now, catching the ball is SUPER important. But getting open is also kinda necessary. People seem to be ignoring the getting open part. Hopefully he can correct the issue with his hands but the guy deserves at least some credit for earning that many targets. I'm certainly not trying to imply that he was excellent or anything during the game, he wasn't, but there were some positives at least.

 

[BrokenArrow]

I'm not interested in double checking your numbers for the entire league but it seems they're at least off for the Packers and Davis as the Packers forced a total of 67 punts last season with him being on the field for the majority of it.

Hmm, you're right. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. I used the play finder on pro-football-reference.com. Apparently, the website only returns a result for the returner if he either returns the punt or calls a fair catch. If he doesn't field it at all, it doesn't find a result. So I will change "appearances as a returner" to "punts fielded." It still shows his propensity to not want to return the ball unless he has a big cushion.

There's no doubt he has to make better decisions on which punts to return or field though.

I think if he returned closer to 65% of his opportunities as seems to be the average, then his YPR would probably be more in the 9-10 yard range.