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Rodgers Contract

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Wi. Mike now in Florida, Mar 6, 2018.

  1. Wi. Mike now in Florida

    Wi. Mike now in Florida Cheesehead

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    Aaron Rodgers contract is at $94,000.000.
    Joe Flacco is comes in 1st. at $112,000.000, top earner.
    Matthew Stafford 2nd, at 111,008.969, top earner

    What do you think Rodgers will earn when his contract is signed?
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2018
  2. 502 to Right

    502 to Right Cheesehead

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    What most matters is what is guaranteed. The figures you have cited are for amusement purposes only since that's not the guaranteed amount.
     
  3. Ace

    Ace Cheesehead

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    He's got to be looking at 5-$155-160M with $95-100M guaranteed right?
     
  4. JanisJubilee

    JanisJubilee Cheesehead

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    How can you still not spell his name right?

    lol
     
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  5. 4Ever4Favre

    4Ever4Favre Cheesehead

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    Sorry........................it's Rodgers. And I am having a hard time understanding what the numbers you listed mean or where you got them from.

    Rodgers current contract I believe is at 5yr/$110M, not $94M. Also, Garoppolo and Stafford both just signed for $135M+ contracts.

    OK, now that that is out of the way, his contract will be higher than whatever Cousins signs for.
     
  6. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    What might apply to a RB entering a second contract is not particularly applicable to franchise QBs. With those QBs one expects the player to be on the roster for the duration of the contract, paid all of the money therein, with the cap absorbing the total value of contract by it's conclusion. If it is renegotiated up before it's conclusion as is being contemplated with Rodgers, then the value of the contract and the eventual payout will be more than the total contract value.

    The combination of signing bonus dead cap, the difficulty in finding a replacement, and rules that mitigate career ending QB injuries assures the player is retained even if there is a decline in performance. Has Joe Flacco lived up to that contract? No. But he's still there. Eli? Still there. Rivers? Costly, not delivering, still there year after year.

    With Aaron Rodgers the expectation should be that every $ of the contract will be paid assuming there is a new contract. The only question is how the cap hit is spread over the duration.

    5 years / $150 million would be the starting point assuming the desire and urgency exists on both sides of the bargaining table.
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2018
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  7. 502 to Right

    502 to Right Cheesehead

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    I disagree. Lot's of QB's have signed ridiculous contracts only to be released a year or two later.

    I would, however, agree with you that a top tier QB's are more likely than any other position to collect all of the contracted money.

    One of my favorite funny money QB contracts was in 2010 when the Redskins extended Donovan McNabb for 5 years and a max of $88.5 million. He was gone after the season.
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2018
  8. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Not all contracts are what meets the eye. McNabb's contract was essentially a one year deal with a team option to exercise the balance, which they did not.

    They paid him $3.75 million for the one year then released him with no further obligation:

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=5812371

    It could have been a franchise QB deal, but it was not. It was a one year rent-a-QB deal.

    I don't think Rodgers deal is going to have any easy outs for several years if any at all.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2018
  9. 502 to Right

    502 to Right Cheesehead

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    That's my point. There was virtually no guaranteed money and no huge up front bonus. But at the time the media reported it as a 5/$88.5 contract.

    All that said, I'm pretty sure Rodgers is going to earn his entire extension absent a career-ending injury. Which is your point.
     
  10. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    If Rodgers deal is guaranteed for injury then he would earn the entire extension regardless.
     
  11. Munch

    Munch NFL Owner

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    8C31698F-614A-4705-A1BB-3F19C88ECD97.gif
     
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  12. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    30 million at least huge signing bonus, where most of that guarantee is in future years.. plus a lifetime contract
     
  13. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I think you mean the cap hit should be concentrated in future years, not the guarantee. A signing bonus is guaranteed immediately and it is prorated evenly over the years of the contract.

    However, the proration of the signing bonus applies only to the first 5 years of a contract per the CBA if the contract happens to be longer than that.

    There is no such thing as a "lifetime contract". It is for a specified number of years with the cap hit for each year laid out in advance.

    A 6 year contract takes Rodgers out to age 40.

    I think we're looking at 5 years to age 39 if they actually get a deal done before the season starts, which i would not consider a lock. With a QB who relies so much on his mobility 6 years is really pushing it.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2018
  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Want the cap back loaded?

    Let's start with Stafford, the guy with the largest guarantee out there at $60.5 millon which escalates to $92 million on the third day of the league year which is about 10 days from now. It included a $40 million signing bonus with a total value of $135 million, or $27 million per year over 5 years.

    Lets try this:

    $75 million signing bonus, additional $25 million guaranteed, total value $160 million or $32 million per year over 5 years.

    2018

    signing bonus proration: $15 million
    salary: $o.01
    cap hit: $15 million

    2019

    signing bonus proration: $15 million
    salary: $0.01
    cap hit $15 million

    [Rodgers gets $75 mil cash money for playing 2018/2019; the Packers save about $6 million in cap in each of those years over Rodgers current deal, and Gutekunst uses the savings to sign Wilkerson to a 2 year deal, which is both a ;) and a "God forbid".]

    202o

    signing bonus proration: $15 million
    salary: $25 million (the balance of the guarantee)
    cap hit: $40 million

    2021

    signing bonus proration $15 million
    salary: $30 million
    cap hit: $45 million


    [Although the guarantees were exhausted after 2020, the dead cap going into 2021 is $30 million from the remaining signing bonus proration, or a cap savings of $15 million if released. Large signing bonuses create the "silent guarantee" of dead cap. Since you won't be able to buy much of a QB with that $15 million savings, even with some noticeable decline in performance, the dead cap all but guarantees retention simply because you won't be able to buy much more than a mediocre vet for $15 million cap.]

    2022

    signing bonus proration $15 million
    salary: $30 million
    cap hit: $45 million

    [Going into 2022, the dead cap drops to $15 million, the cap savings rises to $3o million. If performance has declined, now there's a choice to be made. Did Gutekunst draft a QB in the first round in 2020? :eek:]

    There's another way to go. You acknowledge this is not a championship roster. You stop overpaying underperforming and aging vets. You clear off their cap instead of throwing good cap after bad. You rebuild through the draft. When you acknowledge you are rebuilding, you are less inclined to reach in the draft to fill the immediate needs. You front load more cap in Rodgers contact than what is seen above so that by the time you get to legitimate contending status in 2019-2020, you have more cap to work with. Or if Rogers is in decline in 2021 or 2020, the front loading eases the dead cap providing a possible out.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2018
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  15. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    With Rodgers being a veteran who has 10+ accrued season in the league the Packers have to pay him a base salary of at least $1.015 million in 2018 and $1.03 million in '19.

    I haven't thought about it until reading your post but it might actually be a good idea to front load Rodgers' contract for the reason you mentioned that it will most likely take Gutekunst more than this offseason to rebuild the roster into a championship one.
     
  16. Curly Calhoun

    Curly Calhoun Cheesehead

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    We'll have a better idea when Cousins signs. Whatever he ends up making, it will (and should) be eclipsed by what Rodgers will make.

    I'm more interested in how it will be structured, and what his cap number will ultimately be. This will be a good test for Gutekunst & Co.
     
  17. PackerDNA

    PackerDNA Cheesehead

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  18. PackerDNA

    PackerDNA Cheesehead

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    Aaargh!!! Link doesn't work. Just go to cheeseheadtv.com and click on article.
     
  19. swhitset

    swhitset Cheesehead

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    It might be better if you mentioned what some of those things are that you found interesting.
     
  20. PackerDNA

    PackerDNA Cheesehead

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    Would be even better if you just went to the article and see what you find interesting.:)
     
  21. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Thanks for the info about minimum salary for 10+ accrued seasons. That's a pretty obscure provision. It doesn't change much in the equation I presented.

    As for putting more front load in the contract, it comes down to a realistic assessment of the roster and championship prospects in the immediate future.

    The Packers current situation reminds me of a couple of other draft and development teams, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, in the early part of this decade. Those defenses aged in place and were paid handsomely as the foundation for contending peaked and then eroded. Pittsburgh got to the SB in 2010, got one more season out of the guys, then slumped to 0.500 for a couple of years. Baltimore won a SB, followed by one 10 win season and one playoff appearance, but have have been essentially a 0.500 team since.

    Expecting aging Packer core players (Nelson, Cobb, Matthews, Bulaga) returning to impact form is entirely unrealistic. Getting them to take less money now while extending them just exacerbates and defers the fundamental problem. It's worth noting the team exhibited some fatal flaws even when those guys were at their peaks, there was a loaded O-Line and there were some pretty good corners.

    Too many things would need to go right to be a legitimate contender this season: the team maintains above average health into the postseason; Pettine finds untapped potential in the defensive youth; the above named players return to a reasonable facsimile of their former selves, the draft fills some key holes right now. I view this as magical thinking.

    It's worth considering that Gutekunst has heretofore been a senior scout, not a roster builder or immersed in the cap. I'm not sure if his initial comments about going into free agency with some aggressiveness was a case of saying what people want to hear, or inexperience and naivete, or internal pressure to keep the "win now" ball rolling. I'm somewhat encouraged by his recent comments that the vet retention/free agent considerations have a "who else we got?" consideration coming out of the draft.

    Murphy has expressed urgency in getting something done with Rodgers. This is your uber-GM talking, Gutekunst is your junior GM, for the time being. I do not entertain any argument that the Rodgers contract matter is not the elephant in the cap room. Until the matter of "win now" vs. rebuild reaches internal consensus (and maybe it has already, maybe it has not), you do not know how to structure that contract, how to handle the contract year vets, what cap is left over to do something in free agency, and who is targeted in the draft.

    I look at the eventual outcome of the Wilkerson interest as indicative of the direction and ask, "what does he add and what can the Packers afford for that?" He'd bring depth and rotation behind the incumbent tackles to keep their snap counts down, he'd be a starting backup in the event of injury, and a big body in short yardage. How much do you pay for that? That's not a core role. In what way does he add in that department vs. Lowry and Adams, assuming Adams foot issue is not some kind of permanent impairment? I wouldn't pay more than $4 million over 2 years for Wilkerson given available cap, the Rodgers extension looming, and the holes that need to be filled. Somebody who needs a starting DT with confidence they can work an attitude adjustment will pay more.

    I hope this is a situation where Petine said, "I know this guy, I could use this guy, and I can get more out of him that what he's shown in the last couple of years," with Gutekunst responding, "let's bring him in, kick the tires, and see what's what."

    Frankly, if you're going to assume you can work an attitude adjustment on a guy, you'd be better served packaging the second pick with other considerations, move up in the second round, and take Arden Key if he's still on the board. His snap timing and first step burst was elite when his head is on straight and he's not overweight, he can play up or hand in the dirt as a 4-3 weak side DE or 3-4 OLB. I'm not advocating that without having heard him tell his story of last season. Alternatively one can look at other hybrid DE/OLBs in the draft if Pettine's intent is to play a bunch of hybrid sets. DT depth at cost is not a good short term or long term use of that cap.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  22. swhitset

    swhitset Cheesehead

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    I guess my subtle point that you missed is that, at least to me ... when people post something in here that is nothing but a reference to going somewhere else I am not inclined to even look at it unless the poster references something about it. I'm not saying that you don't have a right to post it... just that it would be much more likely to stimulate conversation if you actually posted some of your own reactions to whatever you found interesting.
     
  23. PackerDNA

    PackerDNA Cheesehead

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    I see your points. I just have little time, hence most of my posts are quick hits, as things keep coming up.
    Anyways, I feel posting a link is good enough if someone wants to check it out.
     
  24. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    lifetime. after retires gets money for appearances
     
  25. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Ah, the old Brett-Favre-goes-to-the-PR-department for $10 million, like the no-show job some alderman got for somebody's brother-in-law?

    The thing about the Favre situation is they were going to do that if he retired. It was not going to be done in conjunction with a playing contract.

    You better check whether signing a playing contract along with a personal services contract paid out many years in the furture would pass league and CBA muster.

    It would blatently circumvent the rationalle behind the salary cap structure. It would be like a deferred signing bonus that never goes against the cap.

    If this was legal I think we would have seen it by now with somebody. It would be a cap free lunch. The cap structure has been honed and refined with every CBA over the years to eliminat all free lunches.

    Now, if you think there could be a double-secret verbal handshake deal that nobody knows about for pay after football, you'd best think hard about the implicatons of that. It would never happen.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2018

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