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Rodgers Contract Situation

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Shawnsta3, Feb 4, 2013.

  1. Shawnsta3

    Shawnsta3 Cheesehead

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    On the brink of Joe Flacco earning his big money payday which could be in the range of $20m+ per year with up to $40m in guarantees it got me thinking.

    Rodgers > Flacco

    Rodgers is likely to bargain he is better than Flacco and only one year older so he should be paid as such. A lot of you argue he will take a hometown discount with the Pack, but I don't agree. Players very rarely take discounts.

    So let's say Rodgers and his agent David Dunn walk up to the bargaining table and demand a 5 year 115 million dollar contract with 50 million guaranteed. Do we pay him that? What is the max number you think Thompson would pay him? Are we actually really willing to let Aaron Rodgers walk?

    Rodgers contract runs out after 2014 so this is all coming up really quick. This year would typically be the bargaining year to get an extension done. The Quarterback franchise tag would be about $15 million then, while the "Exclusive" tag could be up to $22 million.

    Let me know what you guys think what could happen with Rodgers and his contract.
     
  2. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    You pay him. You want a 10 year contract so you can handle the cap number. Its going to be historic.
     
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  3. Shawnsta3

    Shawnsta3 Cheesehead

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    So whatever he asks for, you give to him? No matter the number? You don't think there's a "max" to this deal for GB.
     
  4. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Well of couse, but its more about structure than total $ in the headlines. I could draw up a 20 year 400 million dollar contract for Rodgers that he only would see 30 million of. Its completely about structure in todays salary cap era.
     
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  5. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    If we tag (we'll re-sign him way before that) it'll be exclusive. Teams will GLADLY give 2-3 1's for him.
     
  6. Chicocheese

    Chicocheese Cheesehead

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    I would say "yes" to just about whatever number he says. Then I would add contract years to his $ to even out the deal.
     
  7. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    No, they will not let Rodgers walk. If it really came down to it, they would tag him. He has 2 years left on his deal and they could actually tag him for an additional 3. Assume the QB tag is around $18M when Rodgers' deal runs out (it's $16.4 right now). He would get $18M in his first tagged year, $21.6M in his second, and $25.92M in his 3rd year (total value: 3 years/ $65.52M)

    It will never get that ugly, but I'm just laying out a hypothetical. Right this minute, they can control Rodgers until he's 35 if they really want to, and there would not be much he could do about it.

    Rodgers knows that, and he also knows he holds tremendous value to the team as their franchise QB. So a deal will get done, I would guess somewhere between $20-$22M a year, and it will be stretched out into a very long term deal.

    10 years/$200M still sounds about right to me.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  8. Quientus

    Quientus Oenophile

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    I agree with most of your sentiment, however ... - I don't see TT shelling out a contract like the one Brees got (and the one I think Flacco will get) ... - Even 10 years / $200M I think perhaps will be a little too much for TT ...

    I even see a scenario where the Packers might let Rodgers walk (after a few years under the franchise tag) if he gets "too greedy" ...
     
  9. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    2 years of the franchise tag would be more damaging to the team than a 10 year contract
     
  10. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Your franchise tag numbers are off. They would exclusive tag him. You are looking at around $23 mil the first year.
     
  11. Shawnsta3

    Shawnsta3 Cheesehead

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    Is that spaced out evenly?

    You're either paying Rodgers around 30 million a year in the heart of that contract or 20 million a year when he's 39/40?
     
  12. mayo44

    mayo44 Guest

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    You have to remember one thing. Rodgers has said many times that the most important thing to him is winning. If that is, in fact, true, then he will not insist on a contract that hamstrings the organization and causes it to not be able to field a competitive team. We'll find out soon enough.
     
  13. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    I think Rogers will be signed before the draft, and get about the same numbers as Brees, maybe a few million (pocket change) more. No way TT will franchise him.
     
  14. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Structure is so important. You can win with a big contract. The packers gave Favre the first $100 mil contract but that never seemed to prevent them from winning.
     
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  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Brees vs. Rodgers - Part I

    The signing bonus and guaranteed $'s are critical in these things. Years and total $ can be misleading, with performance incentives and option year gimmicks (see Vick). The devil is in the details.

    As best I can tell, the richest, cleanest deal in the league right now is Brees 2012 contract. The only richer deal ever written might be Manning's last one with the Colts, but I don't have those details.

    Brees last deal, from rotoworld:

    "7/13/2012: Signed a five-year, $100 million contract. The deal contains $40 million guaranteed -- a $37 million signing bonus and Brees' first-year base salary. Brees is eligible for annual $250,000 workout bonuses in years two through five. 2013: $9.75 million, 2014: $10.75 million, 2015: $18.75 million, 2016: $19.75 million, 2017: Free Agent"

    rotworld has rolled off the 2012 base, but it's clear from these numbers it was $3 mil.

    With the large signing bonus prorated over the 5 years for cap purposes, it's what they call "cap friendly". What this actually means is that it's cap friendly in the early years, and cap nasty in the out year. Here's the cap breakdown by year:

    2012: $3.0 mil base + $7.4 mil signing bonus = $10.4 mil
    2013: $9.75 mil base + $7.4 mil signing bonus + $0.25 mil workout bonus = $17.4 mil
    2014: $10.75 mil base + $7.4 mil signing bonus + $0.25 mil workout bonus = $18.4 mil
    2015: $18.75 mil base + $7.4 mil signing bonus + $0.25 mil workout bonus = $26.4 mil
    2016: $19.75 mil base + $7.4 mil signing bonus + $0.25 mil workout bonus = $27.4 mil

    The conventional wisdom on these kinds of deals is the last year will never be paid; perhaps not the last two years.

    All the guaranteed money was already paid in 2012. There is no cash money to be paid out if he is released at any time going forward. However, un-prorated signing bonus $ hit the cap immediately in the year the player is release.

    Brees just turned 34 years old. By the time he gets to 2015 he'll be 36. If his performance has dropped off, the Saint's will have 3 choices...(1) keep him and take the $26.4 mil cap hit (and pay $19 mil in cash money), (2) release him at take a $14.8 mil hit against the cap in 2015 or (3) renegotiate. This was roughly the kind of choice the Colts had with Manning, which they tried their hardest to not to make the no-brainer it was, given his age, injury status and holding the #1 pick.

    Even if Brees is still playing lights out in 2015, it will have become increasingly hard to put enough decent players around him to get to the playoffs with that cap hit in 2016. The cap hit incurred by releasing him drops to $7.4 mil in 2016. That's better leverage for a renegotiation if he's still playing at a high level.

    If the team sucks in any year in the 2013 - 2015 period, they get a high pick, and a franchise-potential QB is on the board, expect them to take him in preparation for 2015 or 2016.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  16. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Where are you getting those figures?

    Brees' tag figure was $14.4M last year, and that was for exclusive rights. It's an average of the top 5 the first year. Brees hit $20M. No one has touched $23M, let alone have that be the average for the top 5. Any estimate is speculation right now, but $23M is out there. In 2 years it'll go up no doubt, but I'd be shocked if it got that high.
     
  17. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Well like you said you take the avg of the top 5, so lets do that for 2013

    Tom Brady - $21.55 million
    Matt stafford - $20.82 million
    eli manning - $20.35 million
    Peyton manning - $20 million
    Big Ben - $19.6 million

    Avg of $20.46 mil. So I don't think it's a jump to see reach 23 mil in 2 years. Either way $20 mil is crazy
     
  18. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    http://nflsfuture.com/2012/03/28/team-by-team-offensivedefensive-schemes/
    Under the new CBA, it's the average of the top 5 over the last 5 years.

    I found this after about 10 seconds of googling:

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...ag-numbers-tentatively-set-2013-cap-near-121m

    And I'm not sure where you got those player numbers from...they look awfully high. For example, Brady's deal in 2010 was for 5 years, $78.5 mil. That might seem low until you look at the $48.5 mil guaranteed, which is the significant number.
     
  19. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Brees vs. Rodgers - Part II

    First, a note on Flaco. He might be looking for a clean, $20 mil per year deal, but he won't get it. He's not elite tier, despite the SB win...more like rising to second tier with Eli and Ben. $14 mil per year would be the top end I'd think, and that is probably generous. The agents need check their spreadsheets and tell these guys the cap has gone down since 2008, and there are 52 other players to pay. If he's stubborn about it, they can franchise him.

    As for Rodgers, $20 mil per year is in line with Brees, and looks about right. It will probably be longer, maybe 7 years, taking Rodgers out to age 36.

    The real issue is how it will be structured. As noted in Part I, a Rodger's deal structured like Brees' with the big signing bonus and low first year base salary would result in little or no increase in cap hit in 2013. It's a riskier, "win now" strategy because that big signing bonus prorated for cap purposes would make releasing an injured or declining Rodgers in the middle years of the contract prohibitive.

    Since Packer management tends to be risk averse and longish term thinkers, a deal like Brady's last contract might be the way they'll try to go, if Rodgers will have it. Brady got a huge guarantee ($48.5 mil) but a relatively small signing bonus ($16 mil). The cap hit is fairly evenly spread across the contract, without a big prorated signing bonus overhang. If he fell down the stairs tomorrow and broke his neck they could release him with only a $6.4 mil cap hit...not trivial, but not a cap disaster. If it were Brees, it would be a $22.2 mil cap hit to release him...a different kettle of fish.
     
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  20. mayo44

    mayo44 Guest

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    They didn't win many playoff games after that.
     
  21. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    That's bc Brett liked to throw multiple INTs in playoff games.
     
  22. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Sigh...those aren't exclusive tags those are regular tags. We went over this already. Sometimes you have to actually know what you are googling to get the right answer bud.

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...han-20-million-under-exclusive-franchise-tag/
     
  23. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    If the Ravens are smart, they'll use the non-exclusive tag on Flacco.

    2 first rounders for Flacco? That's a pretty nice prize for being reluctant to give top 3 QB money to a QB that you know damn well isn't top 3.
     
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  24. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    None of the QB in this years draft could replace Flacco. That's the rub
     
  25. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Yeah true...it's a tough sell to say you're going to have a rebuilding year in the year after you win the Super Bowl.

    Long-term it would be in their best interests, but they're pretty much stuck with Flacco, which is tough for them because he's still not even a top 10 QB IMO. He just played well in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl at the exact right time.
     

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