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Rodgers and his teammates drops

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by ivo610, Nov 21, 2012.

  1. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    • Informative Informative x 2
  2. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Really? Why?

    Look at the QBs immediately behind Rodgers on the list: Brees, Luck, Manning, Brady.

    I'm not sure that the stats alone tell the story. Do all of these top QBs just have bad receivers? Do they all zip tight spirals into small windows?

    Of course we'd like less drops but not if that means that Rodgers (and these other QBs) are no longer able to make the big plays because they are laying the ball in there instead of shooting bullets.
     
  3. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Lets redo some of the earlier math.

    PFF only occasionally publishes individual receiver drop stats for free consumption, but we do have STATS, Inc. numbers, which may be more lenient, admittedly:

    http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=nfl&type=receiving&rank=232

    ESPN.com gives us target numbers:

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/gb/green-bay-packers

    For the sake of argument, lets assume STATS, Inc. drop counts equate to PFF's:

    Finley: 50/5 = 10.0% drop rate
    Nelson: 63/6 = 9.5% drop rate
    Team: 8.8% drop rate (per the OP link)

    Finley's drop rate equates to less than one additional drop over the team average over an entire season.

    Finley's hands have been about average for the team this year. This is further evidence that fans' opinion that Finley "sucks" on the field is colored by their opinion of what he says off the field. He's just kind of average.
     
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  4. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    ^
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    Winner chicken dinner.
     
  5. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It's certainly an interesting question, with a lot of variables that would be impossible to pin down statistically. Besides receivers having good hands or bad hands, here are a few other factors:

    1. Some QBs throw the ball harder.
    2. Some QBs throw a "heavier" ball...a ball that arrives with the nose slightly down from optimal. It's a bit more difficult to get your hands under a heavy ball. A heavy ball does not decelerate as much as a light ball as it reaches the receiver, and it tends to dive a bit rather than float like a light ball.
    3. Some QBs throw more balls into situations where the ball is harder to catch. You mentioned one...throwing into a tight window where the receiver may not have a clean look at the ball all the way to his hands.
    4. Some QBs make a better effort at protecting receivers. If you throw guys enough balls into situations where they take unprotected shots, you're then going to start seeing them drop some balls over the middle even if there's no hit. Bracing for a hit or keeping one eye out for a defender will buy some drops.

    As you suggest, managing throws to minimize drops can have negative consequences. Throwing a bullet on a short route before or at the break has the ball coming up on the receiver in big hurry. That can be a tough ball to catch. But if you wait for the receiver to swivel his head and/or take something off the throw, you're going to have some balls knocked down and picked.

    In general, throwing balls in places where INTs are minimized, while being a little more difficult to catch, earns you more drops, but on balance is a more winning formula. This probably explains why some elite QBs are toward the top of the list. Those guys also tend to have lower INT% numbers.
     
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  6. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    I need to explain why this is a problem? really?

    See Giants playoff game.
     
  7. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    One additional point, for perspective.

    While Rodgers is at an 8.8% drop rate, the league median average is represented by Carson Palmer at 6.5%.

    The difference amounts to one additional drop per game, which should not be meaningful. It's equivalent to one no-gain run per game, after all.
     
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  8. Chicocheese

    Chicocheese Cheesehead

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    Except that those drops stats are total B.S.

    Listen, at the end of the day I am a Packers fan and I don't wish ill of any players and I don't want to talk negatively about our players. I want to see WINS and I would rather praise their good deeds that highlight their bad deeds....BUT...

    Finley has a lot more drops than 5. I am sure Nelson has more than 6 too. I actually like Finely as player. That being said his drops resonate more with me than anyone else because they are just so... obvious I guess. I don't know how this statisticians come up with a number of 5. They must have a very strict criteria for what counts as a drop because for multiple games in a row Finley dropped at least 2-3 passes. I mean the ball is coming in and he either misses it, or it hits him in the hands and falls incomplete or SOMETHING. I am thinking the real number of drops is somewhere around 8 or 9. If I could go back and rewatch all the games I would, then I would count all the drops for EVERYONE.

    As I mentioned earlier, these statisticians must be counting balls that came into the receiver, smacked his hands, and fell incomplete. I however, count balls that should have been caught that weren't. I am talking balls that hit the receiver and weren't caught, or balls that went THROUGH the hands, not off the hands.

    Also, I am not just picking on Finley, because I really like Finley as a player and his abilities and most of all his potential. I hope that he turns into a Tony Gonzalez or a Kellen Winslow Sr. type of Tight End for us. I am just using him as an example because he has the highest drop % and I remember yelling his name most of all.
     
  9. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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  10. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    You're partly right and partly wrong, I think.

    STATS, LLC probably uses a lenient criteria...something you might call an incontestable drop. They probably don't count anything where there is defender contact, a tipped ball, a fingertip miss...something like not making a routine catch for an average NFL receiver. PFF seems to be a tougher grader, though they don't publish for free stats on a weekly basis for us to compare. I would not be surprised if they counted 8 or 9 as you say.

    Here's the thing. I don't think STATS, LLC is cutting Finley any special breaks. They would use the same measure for Finley and Nelson, or Jimmy Graham for the matter who leads the league in drops by their count and has a higher drop rate than Finley.

    Maybe I'm biased having played WR (but I don't think so since I also played some QB and DB), but there have been several Finley "drops" roundly b*tched about on this board that I would never count as drops...defender contact or laid out with ground contact. I recall one that drew particular ire...a laid out attempt that was a difficult catch. Driver hasn't laid out for a ball since 2009...can't blame him...he's old...but the fact remains.

    If you see a ball, if caught, that gets you to say "great catch", then if he misses it you shouldn't call it a drop.

    Here's the problem. Everybody wants Finley to shut up about how great he is/will be. But then they go ahead and apply Finley's standard to what they see, even though they didn't want to hear it in the first place!? I can understand why that happens, but it doesn't have anything to do with what actually happens on the field.

    Has Finley dropped too many balls? Sure. But he doesn't "suck". Overpaid? Yes, if he doesn't turn it around and MM and Rodgers keep him buried deep in the progressions.

    One thing you can be sure of...if they don't throw Finley the ball more, he will be gone regardless of any drops or great catches. You just don't pay a guy that kind of money and keep him on diminished targets. Right now, I'd say Finley's 100% correct in saying that Cobb is getting his routes. I don't see what might change that, but with defenses taking away the wideouts with cover 2, maybe something could be done.
     
  11. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    We really have ANOTHER Finley sucks---doesnt suck thread?
     
  12. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    That was never the intention. It was where Rodgers ranks in terms of drops in comparison to the league. People just zero in on a player and it gets off track
     
  13. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    Cobb's a wideout. Finley's supposed to be a tight end, except he can't block. I'd prefer a true tight end playing tight end. Finley would look good next to no. 88 in Dallas. Both head cases.
     
  14. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    IMO this particularly applies to Rodgers. Listen to him on his Tuesday shows and you'll hear him talk about minimizing INTs a lot. He also talks about protecting WRs. For example he’s got a fantastic memory and on occasion relates particular plays from years ago where receivers got hammered because he screwed up the pass. IOW, there's more going on in his head than we sometimes think.
    I think this is an illustration of how preconceived ideas affect our observations. Cobb or Nelson could drop the exact same pass Finley does and some fans don’t place as much blame on them as they do Finley because they believe Finley’s drop rate is way out of line.

    BTW, I’ve seen Finley deliver some great blocks and IMO he’s improved in that regard lately. But as some of us have posted, Finley is being paid to be a difference-maker. He's got to do more than being a decoy and blocking well to justify his salary.
     
  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It doesn't need to be an either/or proposition. Brady threw for 5000 yds. with a TE, an H-back and slot receiver. His top 2 wideouts were Branch and Chad Johnson with 51 and 15 catches respectively.
     
  16. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    The two best posters on this site are HRE and Jack. Quality from both. :tup:
     
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  17. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    That's awfully kind of you to say, 13TC. I also like Jack's posts quite a bit.
     

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