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Rodgers Adjusted Comeback Efficiency

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by longtimefan, Aug 25, 2010.

  1. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    There has been a few people here and on other forums ( OBF) claiming that Rodger cant led a comeback...

    Well a web site actually looked into this and come up with criteria...

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Adjusted Comeback Efficiency

    There is a lot to read and understand....But dont be surprised at the results of who is top and who is at the bottom

    This does not mean that the to say the top q/b will ALWAYS make a comeback, or the worse ones never make a comeback..Just a way of seeing on AVERAGE what a q/b does
     
  2. Mushroom

    Mushroom Packer Owner/Shareholder

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    Interesting read there....not too shabby. Im not too fond of QB #1 though!
     
  3. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    The ACE rating calculates how efficient a quarterback is in potential comeback situations, taking into account the level of difficulty of the situation.

    Potential situations...thats the key
     
  4. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    GREAT find LT.

    I mean, every sane person knows just how incredibly talented Rodgers is, but it's nice to have factual comrpovation of how good he is.
     
  5. Raptorman

    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    This was discussed on another board and one factor that I brought up is this. Rodgers has 32 game winning drives in 32 games. Pretty damn good if you ask me. So he had multiple drives that qualified in one game. That is one of my problems with it. They also don't tell you what the cutoff is for game winning drives. Is it 5 minutes left in a game, the 4th quarter or is it the last drive in which the QB scored or attempted to score? In other words if the game winning drive happens to be the first drive of the 3rd quarter does it count? It raised more questions than it answered as far a I am concerned.

    Not that I am saying Rodgers isn't good, I am attacking the way they did the stats.
     
  6. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    You're right, that they don't fully disclosure how they analyse it. One can only assume they're being at least reasonable, not counting 3rd quarter drives.

    They do SAY that they adjust based on dificulty, though. They list starting field position, time remaining in the game, deficit and outcome as graders, so it's not that much abstract...

    They say that the percentage of comeback drives isn't as important as the ACE rating...
     
  7. chucknorris101

    chucknorris101 Cheesehead

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    Ant analyst who claims rodgers cant lead a comeback, or couldnt for that matter didn't bother to actually watch the games, rather assumed that he failed because of the final score. as far asi can tell, rodgers has led some kind of comeback drive in almost every game where they were behind in the 4th. However, the case in previous years, and the first half of 09, was that aaron would lead the go ahead scoring drive, then the defense would crumble and give up the lead again at which point there was no time left to re-up them. The gelling of the defense in the second half of 09 reflects this, as the only loss after that happened was the fluke last second TD in pitt.
     
  8. Raptorman

    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    Ok, this is what I wrote on the other board. Now again, I am not picking on Rodgers but questioning how they came up with his numbers. Because so far no one has been able to offer a real good explanation.

    Now, is it just me? Or is he really have that many multiple drives in one game?
     
  9. 21dmvp21

    21dmvp21 Cheesehead

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    he has brought us back in many games and put us in a position to win every single game. the defense really lets him down. he scores with 2 mins left (steelers) and the defense lets them walk down and score a touchdown. the fact of the matter is i have not seen a game yet with rodgers at the helm that we were not in a position to win. i dont think there has ever been a blow out with rodgers. the defense needs to really step up for us to win a championship.
     
  10. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    Against the Steelers I remember 2. The same against the Cardinals. He had comebacks against the bears 2 or 3 times, against Carolina, Atlanta if I'm not mistaken...

    But, like I said, it's not as important the number of comebacks, but how difficult they were. That's their ACE rating...
     

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