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Remaining cap after today's moves

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by GreenNGold_81, Mar 12, 2019.

  1. GreenNGold_81

    GreenNGold_81 Cheesehead

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    Financial Implications
    With Nick Perry released, the Packers will either add $3.3 million in cap space immediately or will gain $10.7 million in extra space on June 2nd (if he is designated as a post-June 1st release).

    However, the team still needs to make a decision on restricted free agent Geronimo Allison. The low RFA tender is just over $2 million, but it is reasonable to think that the team would tender him at the second-round level, which is just over $3 million. Doing so still leaves the Packers with just $4 million to play with through the rest of free agency if they June 1st-cut Perry, or around $7 million and change if they release him outright.

    source: https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...y-cap-hits-zadarius-preston-smith-amos-turner

    Apologies if already a similar thread.
     
  2. Stanger37

    Stanger37 Cheesehead

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    So it is fair to think that more cuts would be coming? Seems like it would be more financially beneficial to cut him outright?

    Separate financial question...

    With how the Bears and Mack just messed around with their money, is it possible for the Packers to do that?

    I'd imagine there are a lot more twists and turns in doing what they did otherwise, why wouldn't more teams do that with their high paid players to create room?
     
  3. Ace

    Ace Cheesehead

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    Because it just creates future problems. Packers haven't really ever done business that way.
     
  4. GreenNGold_81

    GreenNGold_81 Cheesehead

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    Someone estimated the costs of signing our draft picks will be around 10 mill. I'm no cap wizard but that would obviously mean either restructuring or cuts looming.
     
  5. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    If you go to the following link and scroll down you'll see a $10.3 million estimate of the first year cap cost for the Packers 2019 draft picks.

    https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/

    There is some variability in that estimate but not a lot. Leeway in rookie contract structures are pretty tight.

    But that $10.3 million is not the actual cap subtraction.

    Until we get to opening day the cap expenditure is calculated based on the "Top 51" players. Once the draftees are signed, most of them are going to move into the Top 51, but they will also bump some lower cost guys out of the top 51.

    So, a crude example would be to put all these draftees in the top 51 resulting in $10.3 mil taken out of cap space but if the 10 guys they replace in the Top 51 are at rookie minimum salaries (around $5 mil total, $495,000 each), then the net cap hit that has to be planned for is $5 mil for the draft class. In fact, at this moment, some of those guys in the Top 51 are at the 2nd. year minimum of $570,000 each, so the planned cap subtraction would be something less than $5 mil pending more roster changes.

    At the start of the season, though, the 52nd and 53rd players and the practice squad then get counted against the cap, so you have to plan for that. And you need something in reserve for PUP and IR replacements. Guys on PUP and IR count fully against the cap as do their replacements. I put a $3 mil number on that cap "reserve".

    Where we are precisely in terms of cap space cannot be determined with any precision until the FA contact details are available and we see what transpires with potential roster bonus casualties.

    I think it is sufficient to say at this juncture that 2019 cap space is "damn little" and it is probably in negative territory when accounting for those draft costs and other considerations.

    Those roster bonus cut or cuts in the next few days, or some other cap savings cut now or later, would pad the current cap space number while getting it into positive territory when taking into account the future considerations that come into play by opening day.
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2019
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  6. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    The only messing around with Mack's money was by virtue of the fact they inherited that one year's worth of his Oakland contract, 5th. year option money I believe it was, and then pushed the cap hit of his monster extension to 2019 and beyond via the signing bonus and salaries in the new years in his deal.

    2018 was a one year reprieve. Mack's cap cost for each of the next 6 years is $22 - $25 million. There's no magic here. Free lunches are only temporary.

    The Packers have pushed the cap hit on these free agents out past 2019 to one degree or another through singing bonuses, that degree to be determined when verified details are available. But there's one thing you can take to the bank: every single dollar of signing bonus money counts against the cap sooner or later.
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2019
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  7. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    So potentially we may not make that many picks and may resort to trading them off for next year picks? Maybe trade up or give up picks for a higher pick next year and such...
     
  8. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    won't know for sure until the contract's structures are officially reported in a day or two but i'm guessing there's not much after rookies and whatnot are figured in...that's why i mentioned this morning (at 10:47) that a surprise cut may be coming. i could be wrong.
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2019
  9. Firethorn1001

    Firethorn1001 Cheesehead

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    They took the full hit now on Perry per Demovsky
     
  10. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    but created $3.3m in cap space...so a plus. it's just sad that Perry didn't pan out.
     
  11. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    While I would not rule out trading picks one way or the other, I do not see trading high picks to avoid their 2019 cap costs as a motivation for doing so. The first year cap cost of the #12 pick is only about $2.4 mil more than a UDFA. I'm pretty sure Gutekunst will be positioned to take that guy if he loves him, or trade the pick away if the value proposition presents itself, just as in any other year.
     
  12. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    As stated elsewhere, it fits the evident Gutekunst blueprint of working toward a multi-year window of opportunity. You don't spend $4.8 mil in cap for the mere priviledge of moving $7.3 mil in cap space from 2020 to 2019 unless you are in "win now" at all costs mode. This is not that.
     
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  13. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Bulaga, Tramon Williams, and maybe even Mason Crosby will all be cut.
     
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  14. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Win now but preserve the ability to functional in the future. It's things like this that make me optimistic about Gute.
     
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  15. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    Sorta like the NFLs version of American Idol then, Hometown Finale visits n the like. These contracts have gotten completely out of hand! :whistling:
     
  16. Firethorn1001

    Firethorn1001 Cheesehead

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    It makes sense. I'm sure some of the guys signed today will have roster bonuses in 2020 so that 7M will help out.
     
  17. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    cap space left? Tom Silverstein says about $17m... doesn't include rookies etc.
    so...not as bad as we thought.
     
  18. bigbubbatd

    bigbubbatd Cheesehead

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    Well looks like we can land bell then :) or at least fill in the rest of the roster
     
  19. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

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    Breeland and possibly Ingram would be good enough for me thank you :) Honestly, I see no way how we can still have 17m in cap space
     
  20. GreenNGold_81

    GreenNGold_81 Cheesehead

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    Ya, that definitely seems off.
     
  21. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Actually, it could be around $17 mil. Overthecap is posting numbers now.

    P. Smith has a $6 mil 2019 cap number, then his cap numbers blow out in subsequent years:

    https://overthecap.com/player/preston-smith/3886/

    Amos has a $5.9 mil cap 2019 cap number, and his cap numbers escalate sharply after that:

    https://overthecap.com/player/adrian-amos/3990/

    Turner has a $4.25 mil 2019 cap number with his numbers also doubling as he goes along:

    https://overthecap.com/player/billy-turner/3006/

    With Perry's cap savings accounted for and Z. Smith's numbers not yet posted, Overthecap shows current cap space at $23 mil. Getting to $17 mil would imply a massive backload for Z. Smith.

    I would not have anticipated this much cap back loading in the contracts, but it is what it is.
     
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  22. gopkrs

    gopkrs Cheesehead

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    Well the owners and player's union have an agreement. Do you think that the owners are losing money? Possible. But I doubt it. If you want out of control; then don't have any agreements. The whole cap thing is actually interesting and I think, makes for the best coached and best managed teams to win. Of course, having a couple of star players helps.
     
  23. PackAttack12

    PackAttack12 R-E-L-A-X

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    What do you make of this? Seems like a bunch of backloaded cap hits, particularly when Rodgers' big(ger) hits take effect.
     
  24. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Overthecap shows cap commitments of $143 mil for only 29 players currently under contract for 2020. Here are the following 2020 free agents:

    https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2020/all/green-bay-packers/

    Z. Smith is not posted yet so he will take a bite out of that 2020 cap space; Kenny Clark as well whether on a 5th. year option or extension. Clearly there are other players in that list who need to be resigned, replaced or upgraded.

    A mulit-year window of opportunity with this roster still requires development out of the last draft and a good draft this year to get cheap, productive starting players. Since there isn't any way around that, I suppose Gutekunst is banking on it. Might as well.

    He also has to plow a difficult middle ground. Backloading these contracts means he can sign more free agents than otherwise. Another losing season would intolerable. Somebody would shoot somebody's dog.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2019
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  25. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    Regardless of how one evaluates (number of players above a certain cap number, number above a certain cap percentage), the gap between the haves and have-nots over the next couple of years is close to extreme.
     

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