Randall Cobb Statline?

[DFlo]

How has Randall Cobb looked in training camp so far? Are we expecting a bounce back to the Randall Cobb of old (i.e., his 92/1,287/12TD season)?

What have the beat writers been saying about his role/expectations this year?

How many targets do you see him getting this year? What kind of a stat line do you see him putting up?

 

[Mondio]

I don't predict stats, but I think he'll play a big role. Even reduced last year, again with some injury, he came up with some big catches, not always big stats. I don't think he's fallen off as much as some others. If he's healthy he'll have respectable numbers, but I don't know if he'll be at 92 catches again. If he is, we have problems. Jordy, ascending Adams, 2 big pass catching and blocking TE's added, there are a lot of targets and game plans that will spread that ball around over the course of the season. There's only one ball, so I see it affecting his number of opportunities, but I also see it keeping him more healthy all season and giving him more productive opportunities as well with how they can scheme matchups to get people open. Put Jordy, Adams, Allison out there with Bennett and cobb somewhere on the field and they're going to have to to commit to covering those big guys near the endzone. Cobb could be shifty and wide open somewhere and if he's not, some big guy is in a great match up. Rodgers will find the guy.

 

[armand34]

His season should definitely be better than last season. Arrow is pointing up regardless.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

His season should definitely be better than last season. Arrow is pointing up regardless.

While I don't expect Cobb to get significantly more receptions (60) in 2017 the Packers would definitely benefit from his average yards per catch (10.2) to increase this season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I don't think it is reasonable to expect Cobb to reattain 2014 levels.

Nelson and Cobb received 52% of the targets that year. Adams was finding his way in his rookie year: 66 targets. Lacy, Quarless and Rodgers combined for 131 targets, about the same as Cobb's 126. Boykin, the #4 WR, had only 12 targets.

Considering Adams progression; that all the current RBs can all catch the ball with YAC potential, particularly Montgomery; an upgraded TE crew, and an upgraded #4 WR in Allison who should get some targets in 4 wide and light rotation, Rodgers has a lot more to choose from.

Much depends on run/pass balance. Rodgers threw the ball 610 times (team total of 620) last season, his high water mark, compared to 520 (team total of 536) in 2014. Also, much depends on Cobb's health and that of the other receivers.

Assuming a typical 14-15 games played average across the receiving crew, and a bit more run orientation than last year, say 570 throws, I think Cobb's upside would be comparable to his 2015 numbers: 79/829/6.

Nelson, Adams and Bennett are all good short route runners and can make the "possession" catch inside. One of those guys is in the other slot a lot of the time if we see a repeat of last year's 4-wide on roughly 40% of snaps, which I would expect.

Now, if the Packers go crazy with West Coast ball control passing, throwing 40+ times per game (see Rodgers' first possession in preseason, for example), Cobb could get enough targets to go a bit higher than the 2015 catch count. I don't expect that.

If the Packers stick with the short pass setting up the deep ball approach, the more likely approach, it's possible Cobb racks up more yards on extended plays on fewer catches.

The most notable thing about Cobb's 2014 season was the number of catches (and first downs) he put up on extended play ad libs.

 

[Dantés]

When everyone is healthy, Cobb should be the 3rd to the 5th read depending on gameplan. This first game could be a good one for him as the Hawks' corners are suspect after Sherman, but they have some personnel to deal with Bennett and Montgomery.

I don't see him getting a much different target share compared to last season and I don't know why his YPR would suddenly recover from its recent decline and plateau. The passing attempts should be down overall compared to 2016, as they generally like to run more than they did with the decimated backfield. I could see a few more touchdowns going his way, as those are more volatile.

So I would expect 55-65 receptions, 550-650 yards, and 5-6 touchdowns as a clear #3.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

When everyone is healthy, Cobb should be the 3rd to the 5th read depending on gameplan. This first game could be a good one for him as the Hawks' corners are suspect after Sherman, but they have some personnel to deal with Bennett and Montgomery.

I don't see him getting a much different target share compared to last season and I don't know why his YPR would suddenly recover from its recent decline and plateau. The passing attempts should be down overall compared to 2016, as they generally like to run more than they did with the decimated backfield. I could see a few more touchdowns going his way, as those are more volatile.

I guess that Cobb will definitely be a featured receiver in some games based on opposing personnel. In addition I'm not convinced the Packers truly want to run the ball more often than last season.

 

[Dantés]

I guess that Cobb will definitely be a featured receiver in some games based on opposing personnel. In addition I'm not convinced the Packers truly want to run the ball more often than last season.

Yes, I think there are specific match ups where he will be higher on the pecking order, but on balance I think he will be the 3rd guy in the offense at best and the 4th or 5th at times. Barring, of course, guys ahead of him missing major time with injury.

I feel very confident that the Packers want to run the ball more. The offense will always run through Rodgers as long a he's around, but last season the injuries at RB took things to an extreme. They only ran the ball 374 times in total, despite Rodgers having a career high in attempts himself. In the years prior, it was 436, 435, 459, 433, etc.

So this season I imagine that, unless faced with another terrible situation at RB, they will return to that 430 range, which would mean 55-60 snaps going from pass attempts to rush attempts. That coupled with the presence of Montgomery as a pass catcher and the big upgrade at tight end will mean fewer targets for wide receivers, Cobb included. And given that he works out of the slot, and Bennett/Montgomery are often going to be working the middle of the field, Cobb could easily be the most effected of the starting wideouts. 12 personnel likely takes him off the field as well.

I like Cobb. I think he's a major asset as a 3rd receiver. But without injuries in front of him, I don't see his situation lending itself to a big stat line. And aside from the situation, I don't believe he's the same guy he was in 2014. I believe nagging injuries have robbed him of some of his ability, which wasn't all that remarkable to start with by NFL standards.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yes, I think there are specific match ups where he will be higher on the pecking order, but on balance I think he will be the 3rd guy in the offense at best and the 4th or 5th at times. Barring, of course, guys ahead of him missing major time with injury.

I feel very confident that the Packers want to run the ball more. The offense will always run through Rodgers as long a he's around, but last season the injuries at RB took things to an extreme. They only ran the ball 374 times in total, despite Rodgers having a career high in attempts himself. In the years prior, it was 436, 435, 459, 433, etc.

So this season I imagine that, unless faced with another terrible situation at RB, they will return to that 430 range, which would mean 55-60 snaps going from pass attempts to rush attempts. That coupled with the presence of Montgomery as a pass catcher and the big upgrade at tight end will mean fewer targets for wide receivers, Cobb included. And given that he works out of the slot, and Bennett/Montgomery are often going to be working the middle of the field, Cobb could easily be the most effected of the starting wideouts. 12 personnel likely takes him off the field as well.

I like Cobb. I think he's a major asset as a 3rd receiver. But without injuries in front of him, I don't see his situation lending itself to a big stat line. And aside from the situation, I don't believe he's the same guy he was in 2014. I believe nagging injuries have robbed him of some of his ability, which wasn't all that remarkable to start with by NFL standards.

The Packers don't need to run the ball more often to have an elite offense but have to be effective when doing it to keep defenses honest. In addition I'm not absolutely convinced the team will use as many two tight ends sets as a lot of fans expect entering this season. I agree that it's likely Cobb won't put up numbers like in 2014 though.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Yes, I think there are specific match ups where he will be higher on the pecking order, but on balance I think he will be the 3rd guy in the offense at best and the 4th or 5th at times. Barring, of course, guys ahead of him missing major time with injury.

I feel very confident that the Packers want to run the ball more. The offense will always run through Rodgers as long a he's around, but last season the injuries at RB took things to an extreme. They only ran the ball 374 times in total, despite Rodgers having a career high in attempts himself. In the years prior, it was 436, 435, 459, 433, etc.

So this season I imagine that, unless faced with another terrible situation at RB, they will return to that 430 range, which would mean 55-60 snaps going from pass attempts to rush attempts. That coupled with the presence of Montgomery as a pass catcher and the big upgrade at tight end will mean fewer targets for wide receivers, Cobb included. And given that he works out of the slot, and Bennett/Montgomery are often going to be working the middle of the field, Cobb could easily be the most effected of the starting wideouts. 12 personnel likely takes him off the field as well.

I like Cobb. I think he's a major asset as a 3rd receiver. But without injuries in front of him, I don't see his situation lending itself to a big stat line. And aside from the situation, I don't believe he's the same guy he was in 2014. I believe nagging injuries have robbed him of some of his ability, which wasn't all that remarkable to start with by NFL standards.

Yes, I do believe McCarthy will try to get back to a more balanced attack even if the old objective of a 40/60 run/pass mix is probably in the rear view mirror. Drafting 2 RBs and keeping 4 on the roster is one indication. Whether that works or not is to be seen.

 

[OldSchool101]

Cobb needs to perform and perform valiantly. Randall solely has approximately a 12.7M cap hit this year in 2017.
As a receiving group..Jordy, Davante, Jeff, Geronimo and Trevor count for about 14.6M combined
Add the TE and WR group together and Randall's salary single handily accounts for 36% of the 9 man crew.
By my calculation.. he needs to be somewhere in the 1,500 yards and 14 TD range to earn his keep unless he throws in a few punt return TD's

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yes, I do believe McCarthy will try to get back to a more balanced attack even if the old objective of a 40/60 run/pass mix is probably in the rear view mirror. Drafting 2 RBs and keeping 4 on the roster is one indication. Whether that works or not is to be seen.

In my opinion the Packers kept four running backs on the roster based on the coaching staff being uncertain about the impact of every single one of them entering this season.

Cobb needs to perform and perform valiantly. Randall solely has approximately a 12.7M cap hit this year in 2017.
As a receiving group..Jordy, Davante, Jeff, Geronimo and Trevor count for about 14.6M combined
Add the TE and WR group together and Randall's salary single handily accounts for 36% of the 9 man crew

There's no doubt Cobb hasn't performed up to the contract he signed two years ago but he's still a talented slot receiver capable of putting up decent numbers.

 

[Dantés]

The Packers don't need to run the ball more often to have an elite offense but have to be effective when doing it to keep defenses honest. In addition I'm not absolutely convinced the team will use as many two tight ends sets as a lot of fans expect entering this season. I agree that it's likely Cobb won't put up numbers like in 2014 though.

Regardless of how much we think the Packers need to run, the bottom line for me is that McCarthy's track record makes it clear that he'd rather run quite a bit more than he did in 2016.

 

[OldSchool101]

There's no doubt Cobb hasn't performed up to the contract he signed two years ago but he's still a talented slot receiver capable of putting up decent numbers.

I'm in agreement with that, and he's a good kid, I sincerely hope he earns that contract though. We need some of these big money guys like Clay and Randall to step it up a notch this year

 

[OldSchool101]

Regardless of how much we think the Packers need to run, the bottom line for me is that McCarthy's track record makes it clear that he'd rather run quite a bit more than he did in 2016.

Yes. I think maybe reading between the lines of keeping all 3 RB's from this draft speaks to that also.
I still believe we need to utilize the RB's more in the short passing game, similar to what we were successful at with the tandem of Lacy and Starks a few years back. This is a very fast Defense in todays game, using the leverage of Aaron's throwing to RB's to keep the pass rush honest is also important.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Regardless of how much we think the Packers need to run, the bottom line for me is that McCarthy's track record makes it clear that he'd rather run quite a bit more than he did in 2016.

I beliebe that McCarthy doesn't care about the sheer volume of rushing attempts but the offense being effective while running the ball. There's no doubt the unit is more dangerous with Rodgers throwing the ball though.

I'm in agreement with that, and he's a good kid, I sincerely hope he earns that contract though. We need some of these big money guys like Clay and Randall to step it up a notch this year

Unfortunately I highly doubt Cobb and Matthews will end up having performed up to their respective contracts once the deals expire.

 

[Dantés]

I beliebe that McCarthy doesn't care about the sheer volume of rushing attempts but the offense being effective while running the ball. There's no doubt the unit is more dangerous with Rodgers throwing the ball though.



Unfortunately I highly doubt Cobb and Matthews will end up having performed up to their respective contracts once the deals expire.

I believe that the outlier season probably isn't the new normal.

 

[gbgary]

the o is more talented this year so his stats will suffer some. don't see this as important unless you're into fantasy fb.

 

[Sanguine camper]

With Bulaga not playing hurt the Packers will have to go double TE and try to run even if they get themselves in third and long often. Murphy is outmatched and needs a lot of help. Don't expect much of a vertical passing game today. The wr's will need to block.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

the o is more talented this year so his stats will suffer some. don't see this as important unless you're into fantasy fb.

It's kind of important that Cobb has an impact though as the Packers could have used the cap space allocated to him otherwise if he doesn't.

With Bulaga not playing hurt the Packers will have to go double TE and try to run even if they get themselves in third and long often. Murphy is outmatched and needs a lot of help. Don't expect much of a vertical passing game today. The wr's will need to block.

If Bulaga can't play I fully expect the Packers to line up a tight end next to Murphy to contain Bennett.

 

[rodell330]

Cobb is making a ton of money. I expect him to be st lest the BEST slot wr in the NFL ...by a lot.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Cobb is making a ton of money. I expect him to be st lest the BEST slot wr in the NFL ...by a lot.

Unfortunately that means you'll most likely be disappointed this season once again.

 

[rodell330]

Unfortunately that means you'll most likely be disappointed this season once again.

Yesterday he had a few nice plays. Imo they need to just let Cobb return kicks and punts as well as play the slot. You have ta get your money's worth out of him.

 

[gbgary]

played a real good game against a great d. the guys on the outside didn't do much but cobb made up for them. he was o mvp of the game. with the o-line being weaker than last year Rodgers may be going to him more actually. we'll see. every game is going to be different.

 

[kevans74]

he has a Welker type of role...

He got all those cheap little screens and crosses, he will be good though

If he gets 60-80 for 600-800 yards.. a ton of first downs and like 8 touchdowns that's fine