1. Welcome to Green Bay Packers NFL Football Forum & Community!

    Packer Forum is one of the largest online communities for the Green Bay Packers. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Sign Up or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

PROOF of how lucky the Bears have been so far in 2010

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by FrankRizzo, Dec 30, 2010.

  1. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2010
    Messages:
    5,889
    Ratings:
    +1,679
    (LOL, the similar thread search found one thread titled 'Those Lucky Bears', and it was from 2005. And it is in the NFL News forum.)

    This from ESPN.com today, KC Joyner (and this doesn't even mention the luck part of the refs letting the Bears blocker illegally block Hawk in the back on Hester's punt return TD, or the refs calling 18 penalties on us, or Jones fumble with 2 minutes to go magically hitting an invisible forcefield 1/4th of an inch from the sideline. And it doesn't count for the fact that the refs started the season stealing the win from the Lions by saying Megatron didn't catch that game-winning TD pass. And it doesn't count for all the backup QBs, and backup RBs (No Adrian Peterson) the Bears were able to face this year.

    The luck of the 2010 Chicago Bears

    This team has improved, yes, but luck is on its side on both sides of the ball



    [​IMG] By KC Joyner
    ESPN Insider
    Archive
    [​IMG]With a win Sunday, the Bears will improve five games over 2009 -- but from a metric standpoint, a good portion of that improvement is actually the result of luck.


    Over the years, Bill James came up with a ton of innovative ways to gauge and analyze player and team performance, but he recognized that there was one uncontrollable factor that likely would always escape any attempts to gauge it: luck. At one point, James estimated that luck could account for 30 percent of what happens on a baseball field.


    This rule almost certainly applies to the world of pro football, too. A good example of this can be found in the supposed improvement of the Chicago Bears' defense this year.


    While there is no doubt this unit has made progress in some of its statistics, after taking a closer look at the numbers, it became clear that good fortune has as much to do with this group's improvement as anything.
    To help illustrate the specifics behind the meaning of that last sentence, let's do a closer inspection of Chicago's interceptions.


    There are generally three ways a defense comes up with interceptions: by forcing the other team's quarterback into making an error, by winning a one-on-one coverage situation with a receiver, or by getting a lucky bounce (e.g., a pass tipped at the line or tipped in the secondary that ends up in the hands of a defender).


    Last season, Chicago picked off 13 passes. By my count, four of these came as a result of a quarterback's mistake. Three were the result of a lucky bounce. Two came because of a wide receiver's mistake (e.g., a poorly run route or a miscommunication with the quarterback). That leaves four that were picked off in a one-on-one coverage situation.


    This season, the Bears' D has 20 interceptions. Six of these have been a direct result of a quarterback's error. Two occurred because of a receiver's error. Nine occurred after a tipped pass, and three came in a one-on-one coverage situation.


    To sum up:
    INTs from QB mistakes: Four in 2009, six in 2010
    INTs in one-on-one situations: Four in 2009, three in 2010
    INTs from WR mistakes: Two in 2009, two in 2010
    INTs resulting from a tipped pass: Three in 2009, nine in 2010



    The first three categories are nearly equal in volume, but the last category leans heavily in favor of the 2010 Bears. It can be said that picking off tipped passes is a skill -- but the truth is that the old adage about the football taking funny bounces applies here.

    Luck is a significant factor in where those tipped passes land, and since the 2010 Bears' ball hawks are composed mostly of players who were on the team in 2009, it is quite likely that this was simply a case of the weight of circumstances (i.e., luck) being on their side this year.


    Chicago also had plenty of that same kind luck on the offensive side of the ball. In 2009, Jay Cutler threw 26 interceptions. Fourteen of those were a result of quarterback/receiver mistakes (10 of which fell directly onto Cutler, two of which were on both Cutler and the receiver). Five occurred after a tipped pass, leaving seven for one-on-one situations.



    Now contrast that to 2010. Cutler has 14 picks. Seven were a result of mistakes on his part and one was the fault of a miscommunication between Cutler and a receiver. Those are controllable errors, and to see a drop-off of six from one year to the next is a significant improvement.


    Having noted that, it is also worth noting that the Bears have had only one pass picked off via a tip and five via one-on-one situations. The one-on-one total is close to the 2009 level, but the tipped passes account for a four-interception drop in '10, largely because of luck.
    Add those four lucky non-picks to the six-interception increase in the luck column on the defensive side of the ledger, and it totals 10 additional lucky turnovers.



    Many football statisticians say that a turnover is worth 40-50 yards and that every 100 yards generally equals seven points.



    Using that math here adds up to about 400-500 yards, or four to five touchdowns. Since the Bears have seen about a 100-point turnaround in their points scored/points allowed differential, it can be said that luck accounts for somewhere in the range of one-quarter to one-third of the improvement. Cutler's reduction in bad-decision interceptions accounts for a significant portion of the rest, thus leaving little for the defense to hang its hat on.


    This isn't to say that the 2010 Bears' defense is having anything less than a good year. It is rather to say that if last year's D had been on the receiving end of better ball protection from Cutler and a better set of lucky bounces, the '09 team could easily have performed just as well.


    KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website.
     
  2. red4tribe

    red4tribe Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2009
    Messages:
    944
    Ratings:
    +437
    I'm not going to say that the Bears haven't had some lucky breaks, because they have. But there is no way this article is going to convince me that luck is the reason the Bears went from 7-9 to 11-5 or 12-4. Sure, they have had a few breaks here and there. Maybe we didn't get as many. But Cutler has dropped his INT total from 26 to 14 and Devin Hester has returned to his elite status with seemingly impossible returns.

    Please, people, maybe the Bears aren't as good as 12-4 or 11-5, but can we at least acknowledge that they have made some large improvements that may have contributed to their improved record as much or more than "luck"?
     
    • Like Like x 4
  3. 98Redbird

    98Redbird Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2010
    Messages:
    806
    Ratings:
    +240
    Good article I guess, but 10 years from now all that's going to be remembered is that the 2010 Bears went 12-4 or 11-5 and won the North.

    I hate the Bears as much as the next guy, but we are looking up at them in the division right now. They secured a 1st round bye and have a great shot at going to the Super Bowl. Gotta give them credit for that, luck or no luck. You don't achieve a record like that based soley on luck. They are a good team.

    If we start denying credit to them and pulling out every excuse in the book as to why they won games other than the simple fact that they were simply better than their opponents, then we are no better off than those Bears and Vikings fans we hate so much.

    Just my opinion.
     
  4. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2010
    Messages:
    5,889
    Ratings:
    +1,679
    Obviously they have made some improvements, and I can tell you 3 simple areas where they have.
    #1- Julius Peppers. Adding him was bigger than the Lions adding Ndamakong Suh.

    #2- Urlacher played 16 games this year, vs a half-game last year.

    #3- Mike Martz. He knows what he's doing running an offense.

    Now, you also cannot dismiss luck. We know first-hand how much impact luck can have. Just look at the one flukey lucky play in Detroit where Jennings had the easy TD early in the game on the bomb, and it bounced off his hands, helmet, and then was picked off. That's one play, and I bet anyone if that had not happened, we'd have won that game.

    Washington game, we're in control, until Matthews comes up lame. They come back then and tie it. Still, Crosby has a kick to win it on the final play, he starts it right down the middle, but a gust of wind comes from right to left, it helps the kick hook just enough to hit the post.

    Don't forget about James Jones fumble in Chicago somehow stopping before it hit the sideline. Or about the fumble this week vs the Giants that Matthews popped out of Jacobs hands along the sideline. Some positive luck there as well. We also had some good luck in the first Viking game.

    It's no excuse to realize or admit that, as the article uncovers, luck can be a significant variable in who wins and loses ball games in today's NFL, where many games are decided by one score or less. We know that with all 6 of our damn losses.
     
  5. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2004
    Messages:
    3,158
    Ratings:
    +1,312
    If you're interested in statistical analysis of the importance of "luck" in the NFL, go to

    Advanced NFL Stats: The Randomness of Win-Loss Records

    Their research says that 42% of NFL game outcomes are due to randomness, or "luck". This is primarily due to the short season.

    The Bears are "lucky" by their analysis by about 3 games this year.
     
  6. 3irty1

    3irty1 Fear the Dreads!

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2009
    Messages:
    895
    Ratings:
    +115
    Eh, this article just shows turnover luck. Not a fair judgement in my opinion. Tipped passes can happen to everyone. What kills me is that they seem to always play a team when its at rock bottom or by a bad call. Example: Lions (bad call), Cowboys (Bad Call), Dolphins (3rd QB), Eagles (2 Starting CB's out).

    They deserved to beat us because we shot ourselves in the foot. No excuses there, but a lot of the games they won through a call like the Lion's one, the other team missing key personnel, etc.
     
  7. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2004
    Messages:
    3,158
    Ratings:
    +1,312
    No, their "GWP" (generic win probability) takes into account offensive and defensive "efficiencies"(which is another article) as well as "randomness" or luck.

    It's just a way of measuring what everyone is calling "luck", which is a huge factor in any team's overall record, given the short season.
     
  8. erik_m_vos

    erik_m_vos Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2010
    Messages:
    88
    Ratings:
    +8
    I don't think they have a great shot at winning the superbowl or even getting close. They have to contend with a hot Philly, the Falcons, the Saints, a revamped Green Bay.... the only one they have a chance at beating soundly is the Rams and I think, honestly, the Rams MIGHT be able to beat the Bears.....
     
  9. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2010
    Messages:
    5,889
    Ratings:
    +1,679
    You forgot another lucky one.
    Week 4, they got killed at home by the Giants, Cutler got sacked a ton of times and late in the game suffered a concussion.
    So the next week he was out, as Rodgers was for us when we had to play at NEW ENGLAND.

    Who did the Bears play that game that Cutler was out?

    The worst team in football this year the Carolina Panthers, who were forced to start their rookie QB Jim Clausen.

    The Bears QB that day was horrible, threw for like 60 yards with 2 or 3 Ints, but because Carolina is no New England, or Atlanta, hell or even Detroit or Buffalo, the Bears still got a win missing Cutler. Had that been the Eagles or 49ers even, they'd probably have lost. But it was the worst team in the NFL. How fortunate.

    They won't get those breaks in the playoffs, but getting the bye, they only have to get 2 more lucky gifts and they can be in the Super Bowl. Who knows. They might make it.
     
  10. 98Redbird

    98Redbird Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2010
    Messages:
    806
    Ratings:
    +240
    Bears are better than you believe.

    None of those teams you mentioned look great to me. The Eagles looked like garbage against the Vikings, Falcons have had a favorable schedule for the most part and haven't really been blowing teams out, just doing enough to win, Saints are looking better but are beatable, Green Bay, I don't know what they are yet and the Rams... Yeah, I don't see the Rams doing squat in the playoffs.

    Point being, any of the teams currently in the NFC playoff picture can beat any other team currently in the NFC playoff picture. It could be the Bears, it could be the Packers. But none of the teams suck, with the exception of the West team.
     
  11. Forget Favre

    Forget Favre Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2009
    Messages:
    8,169
    Ratings:
    +2,803
    For me, it's hard to think of a winning team as mostly due to luck.
    You could say that any game the Browns have won against good teams, such as the Patsies, was lucky.
    Or that the Lions got lucky in any of their wins against teams with better records.

    IMO any Packers fan that will admit a rival team as being lucky first is nothing but sour grapes.
    Not too many Packers fans will want to face reality and admit, that at this point, the Bears are just simply better than the Packers. They are the winning team of the division.

    I really want to see the Packers win on Sunday.
    The outcome of that game will then show us who is the better team between the two, this year.
     
  12. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2004
    Messages:
    3,158
    Ratings:
    +1,312
    We haven't played a single team this year that I thought was better than us, especially the Bears. We're our own worst enemy. But if the o-line continues to play well, I don't see a loss in the foreseeable future. A big if, I'll admit.
     
  13. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2008
    Messages:
    2,697
    Ratings:
    +850
    They have gotten A LOT of breaks this year... Called back TD against Detroit... 18 penalties on the part of GB... "Unnecessary Roughness" penalty vs. Detroit...
     
  14. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2010
    Messages:
    5,889
    Ratings:
    +1,679
    The Bears got just crushed by the Patriots, in Chicago, earlier this month. That was a blowout city.
    They also got blown out by the Giants, also in Chicago.

    They got to play Carolina from the NFC South, we had to play at Atlanta from the NFC South.

    Look, the record counts for that, the record. The best team doesn't always win the game. If it did, then there would never be upsets, and why even play the games on the field then, just play em on grass.

    However, the Vikings last year were better than the Saints in that NFC Title game, but the Saints are the ones who won, so sometimes luck is more important than performance.
     
  15. The Drew

    The Drew #packergang

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2009
    Messages:
    1,266
    Ratings:
    +490
    As much as I hate the Bears... luck or not... they are 11-4 and NFC North Champs... sh*t sucks and if we could have pulled out the easy ones against the Skins, Lions, Fins and Bears we would be sitting at 13-2 right now... Cant knock them for winning... but we can knock their f**kin blocks off this weekend and maybe in the playoffs!!! Go Pack!!!
     
  16. 98Redbird

    98Redbird Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2010
    Messages:
    806
    Ratings:
    +240
    Lol, while I agree that the Unnecessary Roughness call was BS, I doubt it really would have mattered. They still would have won that game.

    Actually the Giants game was in New York, but they did get crushed. I doubt however that if they played them again in New York, that the Giants would get to Cutler nearly as much. Bears O-Line is playing much better.

    And I have A LOT of Bears fans around me just by virtue of living in central Illinois, I tell them all the time that I wouldn't worry about people giving them **** for being "Lucky" this year... If any other fanbase had a team that was catching breaks like the Bears were they'd be perfectly happy. The ones who blame the Bears' record on "Luck" are just haters in my opinion... If it was the Packers who were crazy lucky and were 14-1 or something right now, we'd all be ecstatic. It's no different.
     
  17. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2010
    Messages:
    5,889
    Ratings:
    +1,679
    If I admit that the Packers were lucky to come way with the 'W' in the first Vikings game, can it not be true that the Bears also were lucky to get a 'W' or few, without it being hating?

    Luck is a factor, and it doesn't go 50-50 usually. That includes refs flags.
     
  18. Wood Chipper

    Wood Chipper Fantasy Football Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2010
    Messages:
    4,169
    Ratings:
    +1,422
    yes but refs are supposed to alwaya be equally fair
     
  19. 98Redbird

    98Redbird Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2010
    Messages:
    806
    Ratings:
    +240
    ^^^ Sig pic is awesome! LOL... Let's hope we get to see that Jay for the rest of the season/postseason.
     
  20. Number1joker

    Number1joker Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2010
    Messages:
    16
    Ratings:
    +3
    I hate the bears I wish them nothing but the worst of luck for all eternity :chisux:
     

Share This Page