Projecting the Offense

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
9,530
Reaction score
2,310
While that argument may be absolutely true in a funnel, the Packers have quietly used resources from Offense and reapplied them to other areas. Imo. The Packers don’t need to produce Davante Production. They need only come in that general neighborhood (3800+) and the exchange is a Win. I’ll take 300 yards receiving for a top 3 type Defense. Especially an Offense that can run the ball well in January.

While everyone was circling (and still is) like vultures focusing on our WR1, we quietly retained every last D starter and went and added 2 of the Georgia Bulldogs’ top several defenders. This is the best D talent group since 2010 and possibly better overall. I think they already know it too and that makes them more dangerous.

We won’t need Davante, he was a nice luxury, but he wasn’t going to take us over the top, unless he had a 1800yard-20TD type season etc.. He’d have to surpass 1995 Jerry Rice numbers to justify keeping him at $30M and giving up a #22,#53

Also one point people forget about eggs in a basket. if he injured? You’re doomed

Put some respect on the addition of Reed along the front as well
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
9,399
Reaction score
2,458
Put some respect on the addition of Reed along the front as well
True. Reed is an understated guy and not only showing up in GB, he’s a chess piece that can play Castle, Knight or Horse 5-3-1 on the Defensive chessboard. He’s also a proven commodity.

Rodgers is going to do amazing Rodgers things. I actually thought we slightly underperformed last season and couldn’t get off that 26pt/gm hump, which is substandard relative to past seasons. Our OL was banged up, but we had more than the usual injuries also. If we have a more normal to low injury cycle we should see things loosen up and that frees up our TE room to play into our passing game.

I believe we can rely on our RB room some more, to the tune of
200-400 more all-purpose yards in increased and purposeful design.
I still don’t think AJ Dillon has peaked. He’s an absolute workhorse and he’s got amazing finishing ability. We’ve done a nice job keeping his mileage in check after a massive workload at Boston College. This year he needs to be relied upon more and possibly phase Aaron Jones out in the next couple seasons. If Hill can make a full recovery I think he could be a reliable, well rounded #2 RB in the mold of a Jamaal
 
Last edited:
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
9,399
Reaction score
2,458
As one other sidenote. While I think our WR might regress very slightly in passing yards. 3900-4000 area, I think our WR group are better blockers. Having Watson, Watkins and Lazard out there regular is a better blocking group than Adams, MVS and Lazard
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
9,530
Reaction score
2,310
As one other sidenote. While I think our WR might regress very slightly in passing yards. 3900-4000 area, I think our WR group are better blockers. Having Watson, Watkins and Lazard out there regular is a better blocking group than Adams, MVS and Lazard

Strongly disagree with the assumption either Watkins or Watson is as good or as willing of a blocker as MVS became especially last season.

Adams wasn’t the best blocker in all honesty
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
9,399
Reaction score
2,458
Strongly disagree with the assumption either Watkins or Watson is as good or as willing of a blocker as MVS became especially last season.

Adams wasn’t the best blocker in all honesty
Watson is as good if not better than MVS blocking out of the gate. That was something I’ve seen with my own eyes on off tape and in his film review it showed how he ran people into the dirt, literally. MVS became a willing blocker, but he’s not as strong or aggressive as Watson, Christian takes it personal and he was asked to do lots of it. See 7:30 on this tape and that isn’t even the best ones I’ve watched, it was one of many I’ve remembered that stood out.
You must be logged in to see this image or video!



Also Lazard will be on the field more and he’s one of the best blocking WR on our team, if not the best. Maybe one of the tops in our Division also.


Sammy Watkins isn’t initially a guy you think can block, because we always focused on his 4.33 burner speed. But he squats 405 for 8 and makes it look easy. He’s up around 6’1.5 and 220lb as we speak. Davante might out finesse him on receiving routes, but in no way is Adams a comparable blocker or as strong as Watkins.
 
Last edited:

captainWIMM

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 23, 2012
Messages
27,892
Reaction score
2,493
While that argument may be absolutely true in a funnel, the Packers have quietly used resources from Offense and reapplied them to other areas. Imo. The Packers don’t need to produce Davante Production. They need only come in that general neighborhood (3800+) and the exchange is a Win. I’ll take 300 yards receiving for a top 3 type Defense. Especially an Offense that can run the ball well in January.

While everyone was circling (and still is) like vultures focusing on our WR1, we quietly retained every last D starter and went and added 2 of the Georgia Bulldogs’ top several defenders. This is the best D talent group since 2010 and possibly better overall. I think they already know it too and that makes them more dangerous.

We won’t need Davante, he was a nice luxury, but he wasn’t going to take us over the top, unless he had a 1800yard-20TD type season etc.. He’d have to surpass 1995 Jerry Rice numbers to justify keeping him at $30M and giving up a #22,#53

Also one point people forget about eggs in a basket. if he injured? You’re doomed

I agree that it's great to have a defense possible capable of performing at an elite level. But there's no denying the Packers will somehow have to replace Adams' production for the passing offense to be successful. With no elite pass catcher on the roster they will need to get it done as a group.
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
9,530
Reaction score
2,310
Watson is as good if not better than MVS blocking out of the gate. That was something I’ve seen with my own eyes on off tape and in his film review it showed how he ran people into the dirt, literally. MVS became a willing blocker, but he’s not as strong or aggressive as Watson, Christian takes it personal and he was asked to do lots of it. See 7:30 on this tape and that isn’t even the best ones I’ve watched, it was one of many I’ve remembered that stood out.
You must be logged in to see this image or video!



Also Lazard will be on the field more and he’s one of the best blocking WR on our team, if not the best. Maybe one of the tops in our Division also.


Sammy Watkins isn’t initially a guy you think can block, because we always focused on his 4.33 burner speed. But he squats 405 for 8 and makes it look easy. He’s up around 6’1.5 and 220lb as we speak. Davante might out finesse him on receiving routes, but in no way is Adams a comparable blocker or as strong as Watkins.

Not arguing Watson isn’t a better college blocker than MVS, but I cannot get on board with just automatically christening him a better NFL blocker. Might he be? Possibly who knows.

Lazard is the steady here in the comparing and is a stud blocker.

Watkins and Davante is at best a wash I’d bet….this isn’t a portion of either of their games I’d say is a strength. Watkins might be more motivated to do it every play though fighting to salvage his career.
 

longtimefan

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Mar 7, 2005
Messages
23,408
Reaction score
2,761
Location
Milwaukee
It’s the top question mark in GB.
We have a couple positives emerging.

1. Doubs looks like what we’d expect from a 2nd year, Day 2 WR. It’s clear as day he was a steal there late Rd4.

2. Amari Rodgers is back. His weight loss and better conditioning and increased commitment to our team is already showing up.

3. The Full WR room is drawing out a highly competitive group. Nobody is 100% fully safe beyond our top couple WR and it’s bringing out an intense battle. We’ve got a battle on our hands inside that WR room.

4. Winfree is taking a step forward and his incredible athleticism is reminiscent of a young Adams.
He moves really smooth and it’s a battle for his career right now and it’s very clear he knows it.

5. Oddly. For myself anyway. I have a bigger question at TE if Bobbie isn’t back?. We do have Deguara looking consistent and a very stellar blocking TE in Lewis. Past that it’s a big ? ?
This WR looks room just has too much young talent not to have a couple early risers. Maybe not 1000 yard guys, but lots of 500 potential guys.
I say running game has more passing catching this year.

more screens

Im pretty sure Matt and his coaches have had this plan for a while
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
9,399
Reaction score
2,458
I say running game has more passing catching this year.

more screens

Im pretty sure Matt and his coaches have had this plan for a while
Thats what I'm thinking. I remember Coach McCarthy being confronted with an injured top WR and he couldn't seem to figure out how to rely on his veteran RB and TE group. He literally ignored Kendricks and Marcedes for the most part. I'm pretty sure MLF won't do that.

We have 2 RB's that are both starting caliber and we need to find ways to get them both involved more. Also, AJ Dillon has proved to be a very reliable pass catcher and its time to push him more, he's an athlete that was the primary feature on his BC Offense with a heavy workload and he wears well when relied upon. I'd get back to 2020 where we used our dual RB more (15%?) and I'd like to see us dial that up to 20% dual usage, especially early in while these young WR sort things out
 
Last edited:

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
9,530
Reaction score
2,310
Now that Pre-Season is done and we have more information than when I last projected (July 14th) I'm going to project the following below. I still think our WR room is just crazy hard to predict....I could easily see Lazard/Watkins and Cobb all combining for 2,000 yards of receiving if Watkins and Cobb stay healthy but truly history just says that won't be the case. Forgot how hard it is to keep your predictions matching up as far as QB totals and then Receiving and such...ugh.

AttemptsCompletionsYardsTDsINTs
Rodgers5303604025357
Love382734022
Projected Totals5683874365379
2021 Season5934024526397
CarriesYardsTDs
Dillon21511008
Jones1859007
Amari Rodgers201251
Aaron Rodgers301002
Others501501
Projected Totals500237519
2021 Season446190013
ReceptionsYardsTDs
Lazard708908
Jones584505
Watkins304203
Dillon403702
Deguara202002
Watson202802
Cobb344204
Tonyan505256
Doubs253502
Amari Rodgers202602
Lewis101001
Others10100
Projected Totals387436537
2021 Season402452639
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
9,399
Reaction score
2,458
Now that Pre-Season is done and we have more information than when I last projected (July 14th) I'm going to project the following below. I still think our WR room is just crazy hard to predict....I could easily see Lazard/Watkins and Cobb all combining for 2,000 yards of receiving if Watkins and Cobb stay healthy but truly history just says that won't be the case. Forgot how hard it is to keep your predictions matching up as far as QB totals and then Receiving and such...ugh.

AttemptsCompletionsYardsTDsINTs
Rodgers5303604025357
Love382734022
Projected Totals5683874365379
2021 Season5934024526397
CarriesYardsTDs
Dillon21511008
Jones1859007
Amari Rodgers201251
Aaron Rodgers301002
Others501501
Projected Totals500237519
2021 Season446190013
ReceptionsYardsTDs
Lazard708908
Jones584505
Watkins304203
Dillon403702
Deguara202002
Watson202802
Cobb344204
Tonyan505256
Doubs253502
Amari Rodgers202602
Lewis101001
Others10100
Projected Totals387436537
2021 Season402452639
Good stuff.

One thing I think we’ll see (going off day to day practice reports) is slightly more usage at TE and RB in targets (that might lead to a few less overall at WR) in that passing game.

Lewis has been used in practice in several screens and he floats in that 150+ range anyway, so I’m thinking 250+/30 targets for the old guy and I might be low on that if he’s healthy all year. I noticed, He’s been more involved in screens in practice recently. He beat Gary on a beautiful throw (screen) from Rodgers the other day just a moment after it looked like Gary won the rep. He’s very crafty at selling the block and rolling out.

My other guess (I noticed you also saw this) is RB’s are going to get leaned on in our passing game. But I’m thinking to the tune of 300+ Yards off their 2021 type group totals. I’m not sure if that will mean the a tick lower in the Run game though?

Anyway good predictions. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion one WR either exceeds 1,000 yards or just misses it. That’s my riskier prediction
 

jetfixer

Cheesehead
Joined
Feb 26, 2013
Messages
536
Reaction score
61
Location
Memphis, Tn./Pittsburg, Tx.
Watson is going to have to get on the field to block anyone. What is you guys guess to his playing time week one? I'm guessing about 8 plays, 2 targets. I hope he blows up big time though.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
9,399
Reaction score
2,458
Watson is going to have to get on the field to block anyone. What is you guys guess to his playing time week one? I'm guessing about 8 plays, 2 targets. I hope he blows up big time though.
My best guess is we slow roll him for a game or two. Just test the knee if you will. He might play 1/2 game etc
 

Pkrjones

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 3, 2014
Messages
2,663
Reaction score
795
Location
Northern IL
Watson is going to have to get on the field to block anyone. What is you guys guess to his playing time week one? I'm guessing about 8 plays, 2 targets. I hope he blows up big time though.
My guess is he'll give Watkins and/or Lazard a breather on occasion, your 8-10 plays first few games is close. Wouldn't shock me if a few are flat-out fly patterns deep to reduce the cutting/knee banging chances and AR will hit him on 1/game. Stat line: 2 targets, 1 catch, 70 yds & a TD. :)
 

SudsMcBucky

Cheesehead
Joined
May 17, 2022
Messages
53
Reaction score
31
That's quite the ju
So of the 53 they dress 46? I completely forgot that, was thinking 53 dressed.

Which is really a stupid rule I just never understood. You protect 53 on your roster, you pay them, but they can't play? WTF is that? And now even moreso as we eliminate PS games and the regular season gets longer.
 

Pkrjones

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 3, 2014
Messages
2,663
Reaction score
795
Location
Northern IL
"Active ("Gameday") list: If a team has a minimum of eight offensive linemen (primary position being center, guard or offensive tackle) on the active game day roster, the maximum roster size is 48 players. If a team has fewer than eight offensive linemen, the maximum drops to 47 players.
Active/inactive ("53-Man") list: The active/inactive list remains at 53 players for the regular season and playoffs. However, a team can increase its roster to 54 or 55 players only by using the standard elevation addendum (explained below) to bring one or two practice squad players to the active/inactive list.

Standard elevation addendum: Now included in all practice squad contracts, the standard elevation addendum allows teams to move a player from the practice squad to the active/inactive list for one week and then back to the practice squad without subjecting him to waivers. Under this addendum, a player reverts back to his team's practice squad on the first business day after the game in which he is elevated. These players receive the applicable minimum salary for a player with his number of credited seasons (prorated for one week of regular season pay or the applicable postseason amount). This clause can be used by a team for a maximum of two regular-season or postseason games per player per season. If the team elevates a player for a third time and the team wishes to move him back to the practice squad, it has to waive or terminate his player contract. If a player is released or clears waivers (whichever is applicable) and he signs a practice squad contract with a new team, he is once again eligible to be elevated for the aforementioned maximum of two games."

 

Poppa San

Love her or leave her. Either way is expensive.
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Aug 29, 2010
Messages
11,464
Reaction score
1,615
Location
Brown County Wisconsin
"Active ("Gameday") list: If a team has a minimum of eight offensive linemen (primary position being center, guard or offensive tackle) on the active game day roster, the maximum roster size is 48 players. If a team has fewer than eight offensive linemen, the maximum drops to 47 players.
Realistically I expect 1RB elevated and probably an injury replacement the first 3-4 weeks. Of the 55 I expect the inactives to come from Walker, Rhyan, Toure, Ford, Tipa, Garvin, Carpenter, & the injured dude. Question mark is Jenk & Bakh status. May keep Walker active to replace one of them. Rodgers or Watson may be expendable the first few weeks also.
 
Top