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Projecting Regression in the NFC North
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 876267" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p><strong>2019 Record: </strong>10-6</p><p></p><p><strong>7 Point Record: </strong>The Vikings were 2-4 in games decided by less than 7 points. </p><p></p><p><strong>Injury Luck: </strong>The 25.6 adjusted games lost ranked Minnesota 1st overall-- meaning that by FO's accounting, they were the healthiest team in the league.</p><p></p><p><strong>Fumble Statistics: </strong>The Vikings were +2 in this regard, recovering 14 and losing 12. </p><p></p><p><strong>Pythagorean Differential: </strong>This was very nearly spot on, as the Vikings' expected win by scoring differential was 10.2, and they won 10 games.</p><p></p><p><strong>Other Factors: </strong>Minnesota, more than any other team in the division, will be impacted heavily by real changes to their personnel. At this point in the off-season, they've lost Stefon Diggs, Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander, and Stephen Weatherly. The additions they were able to make to counter these losses have been minimal. </p><p></p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The Vikings have two metrics that stand out, but they work in different directions. They were fairly unlucky in close games, and could have reasonable ended up a 12 or 13 win team. On the other hand, they had incredible injury luck, which was so extreme that it's sure to see negative regression. Despite these seemingly equally counter-acting factors, I would argue that negative regression is far more likely given the personnel losses. </p><p></p><p><strong>2020 Prediction: </strong>Not seeing a really strong indicator towards positive or negative regression, I think the personnel losses with end up pushing the record down by 1-4 wins. <strong>I am going to go with 8-8 as my official prediction</strong>. While it wouldn't be a guarantee, an 8-8 finish could result in Zimmer and possibly Spielman being shown the door.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 876267, member: 12283"] [B]2019 Record: [/B]10-6 [B]7 Point Record: [/B]The Vikings were 2-4 in games decided by less than 7 points. [B]Injury Luck: [/B]The 25.6 adjusted games lost ranked Minnesota 1st overall-- meaning that by FO's accounting, they were the healthiest team in the league. [B]Fumble Statistics: [/B]The Vikings were +2 in this regard, recovering 14 and losing 12. [B]Pythagorean Differential: [/B]This was very nearly spot on, as the Vikings' expected win by scoring differential was 10.2, and they won 10 games. [B]Other Factors: [/B]Minnesota, more than any other team in the division, will be impacted heavily by real changes to their personnel. At this point in the off-season, they've lost Stefon Diggs, Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander, and Stephen Weatherly. The additions they were able to make to counter these losses have been minimal. [B]Conclusion: [/B]The Vikings have two metrics that stand out, but they work in different directions. They were fairly unlucky in close games, and could have reasonable ended up a 12 or 13 win team. On the other hand, they had incredible injury luck, which was so extreme that it's sure to see negative regression. Despite these seemingly equally counter-acting factors, I would argue that negative regression is far more likely given the personnel losses. [B]2020 Prediction: [/B]Not seeing a really strong indicator towards positive or negative regression, I think the personnel losses with end up pushing the record down by 1-4 wins. [B]I am going to go with 8-8 as my official prediction[/B]. While it wouldn't be a guarantee, an 8-8 finish could result in Zimmer and possibly Spielman being shown the door. [/QUOTE]
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