I'm not convinced either that Hayward will turn into a solid outside corner. He has played there on occasion and had four of his six interceptions during his rookie season on the outside.
It strikes me that Hayward made his picks reading the QB, anticipating the passing lane and/or jumping a route. In other words: "zone corner". I'll be interested to see him out there regularly in preseason (in the first half anyway) in man coverage.
I'll go out a limb and say Hayward will not be the starting cover corner by mid-season, if not earlier. Consider the following:
1. He did not displace House as the #3 cover corner.
2. He did not displace Hyde by taking over as the primary nickel corner.
3. The Packers lost 2 cover corners and then drafted two DBs in the 1st. and 2nd. rounds with purported cover corner potential.
4. The Packers are relatively strong at the safety position going 3-deep with Hyde and 4-deep with Richardson when a box safety match up is preferred, and Hyde/Hayward is a pretty decent nickel combo. The obvious need was and is on the perimeter (see 3. above).
5. Hayward will be a free agent after this season, and somebody will offer him decent coin, though not likely as rich as the House contract, to take 600 or 700 snaps at nickel corner. Why suffer through growing pains if the guy is not going to provide a payoff in future years? Better to take early season lumps with a guy who will be around for 4 years. Investing two high picks is not to be thought of as simply depth and insurance behind the other proven players with a couple of years or more left on their contracts.
Hayward was a starting guard on his HS basketball team, so maybe I should rethink this.
Seriously, though, shouldn't it seem odd that Hayward managed only 460 snaps (37.8%) last season, with a chuck of those at dime? His second year was injury plagued, but being healthy last year there was an opportunity for the team to leverage his very high interception/snap count ratio from his rookie year. But they didn't. Again, he had a high ratio with 3 picks on those 460 snaps again last season. Isn't it odd that a defensive coordinator who puts such a high premium on opponent passer rating and turnovers wouldn't want this player on the field more regularly?
Joe Witt said late last season, "Casey has played better than most people realize, and he deserves more reps than he has played." So why didn't he get more reps last season? Because he couldn't beat out House or Hyde for them? Or perhaps Capers has a different opinion.
There's some kind of undisclosed question mark. It is my opinion that it boils down to his man coverage skills. Or perhaps he's generated some of those picks when being out of position or taking what is perceived to be undue risks? I'm faintly reminded of Robert Francois in this latter regard.
So, it it Hayward's job to lose? Yeah, probably. But his grasp on it is highly tenuous in my opinion.