Playoff Shakeup

[Deleted member 6794]

We will likely start at least 3 rookies this season.

I guess Savage is the only rookie that will definitely start in week 1.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

Every season, the playoff picture churns a little bit.

From 2013 to 2014, five teams switched over (4 WC teams and 1 Division Winner).

From 2014 to 2015, four teams (2 WC and 2 DW).

From 2015 to 2016, six teams (0 WC and 6 DW).

From 2016 to 2017, seven teams (4 WC and 3 DW).

From 2017 to 2018, eight teams (4 WC and 4 DW).

So over the last five years, we've seen an average of six teams switching out per season. Wildcard teams are highly volatile, and division winners less so-- 70% of WC teams failed to make it back the following season, while 40% of division winners failed to make the playoffs the following year.

Here are last year's teams:

AFC:

1. Kansas City
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Baltimore
5. Los Angeles (WC)
6. Indianapolis (WC)

NFC:

1. New Orleans
2. Los Angeles
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. Seattle (WC)
6. Philadelphia (WC)

Some factors that often prove to be predictive in terms of progression and regression: scoring differential, turnover margin, one score game record, injury luck.

So given all of that, who's in and who's out? At a minimum, we should count on four spots switching out, and it could be more.

From what I've seen TOO MUCH would have to break right for Green Bay to be a playoff team this year. Can't agree there as much as I'd love to.

 

[Dantés]

From what I've seen TOO MUCH would have to break right for Green Bay to be a playoff team this year. Can't agree there as much as I'd love to.

What you've seen is two preseason games.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

What you've seen is two preseason games.

I might add without the starting quarterback having taken a single snap.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

What you've seen is two preseason games.

Yes. If it isn't fixed by next week we're in trouble because you know week 4 no starter is playing. ALSO I NEED Aaron to play 1 half this week. I need 30 minutes in this new offense with live fire before I'm comfortable with him in the new offense.

Tackling is abysmal from EVERYONE. So yes we can't be a lousy tackling team AND having our QB learning the system in week 1 of regular season and even be a 6 seed.

 

[Dantés]

Yes. If it isn't fixed by next week we're in trouble because you know week 4 no starter is playing. ALSO I NEED Aaron to play 1 half this week. I need 30 minutes in this new offense with live fire before I'm comfortable with him in the new offense.

Tackling is abysmal from EVERYONE. So yes we can't be a lousy tackling team AND having our QB learning the system in week 1 of regular season and even be a 6 seed.

Trash take, Ric. If they haven't hit a groove by October, then we're talking.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Trash take, Ric. If they haven't hit a groove by October, then we're talking.

It’s too hard to tell how things will play out after two PS games, both in vanilla formations and w/o the starting QB. I agree, let’s see where the team is in October before rendering a call on playoffs. My biggest concern right now is lack of tackling. That’s fixable.

 

[PackAttack12]

If the playoffs started today, it would be a 5 team turnover.

New teams: Packers, Vikings, 49ers, Titans, Bills.

Replacing: Bears, Eagles, Rams, Colts, Chargers.

 

[Dantés]

Speaking of shakeups, let's check in on the hot seats around the league:

Totally Safe:

• Bill Belichick, NE
• Sean Payton, NO
• Kyle Shanahan, SF
• John Harbaugh, BAL
• Pete Carroll, SEA
• Sean McDermott, BUF
• Matt LaFleur, GB
• Andy Reid, KC
• Sean McVay, LAR
• Frank *****, IND
• Brian Flores, MIA
• Jon Gruden, OAK
• Zac Taylor, CIN

Probably Safe:

• Mike Zimmer, MIN
• Mike Tomlin, PIT
• Doug Pederson, PHI
• Mike Vrabel, TEN
• Bill O'Brien, HOU
• Vic Fangio, DEN
• Kliff Kingsbury, ARI

Borderline:

• Matt Nagy, CHI
• Pat Shurmer, NYG
• Adam Gase, NYJ
• Bruce Arians, TB
• Anthony Lynn, LAC
• Freddie Kitchens, CLE

Probably Gone:

• Matt Patricia, DET
• Ron Rivera, CAR
• Jason Garrett, DAL
• Doug Marrone, JAC
• Dan Quinn, ATL

Already Gone:

• Jay Gruden, WAS

I would put the over/under line for fired coaches right at 9.5 this year.

 

[longtimefan]

I'd say Shurmur is gone

 

[PackAttack12]

Speaking of shakeups, let's check in on the hot seats around the league:

Totally Safe:

• Bill Belichick, NE
• Sean Payton, NO
• Kyle Shanahan, SF
• John Harbaugh, BAL
• Pete Carroll, SEA
• Sean McDermott, BUF
• Matt LaFleur, GB
• Andy Reid, KC
• Sean McVay, LAR
• Frank *****, IND
• Brian Flores, MIA
• Jon Gruden, OAK
• Zac Taylor, CIN

Probably Safe:

• Mike Zimmer, MIN
• Mike Tomlin, PIT
• Doug Pederson, PHI
• Mike Vrabel, TEN
• Bill O'Brien, HOU
• Vic Fangio, DEN
• Kliff Kingsbury, ARI

Borderline:

• Mike Nagy, CHI
• Pat Shurmer, NYG
• Adam Gase, NYJ
• Bruce Arians, TB
• Anthony Lynn, LAC
• Freddie Kitchens, CLE

Probably Gone:

• Matt Patricia, DET
• Ron Rivera, CAR
• Jason Garrett, DAL
• Doug Marrone, JAC
• Dan Quinn, ATL

Already Gone:

• Jay Gruden, WAS

I would put the over/under line for fired coaches right at 9.5 this year.

Nice list. I would swap Kitchens and Patricia though. Cleveland is a complete circus, don't see how that's salvageable. With Detroit, the results haven't been great, but they were 3-4-1 and were sort of trending on an improvement over 6-10 in year 1 before losing Stafford. They've also lost just 1 game by more than a single score. I feel like he'll get another year, but I could be wrong.

 

[Dantés]

I'd say Shurmur is gone

It's certainly possible, but Gettleman might also decide to give his first hire a 3rd season, especially since this was Jones' rookie season.

If Gettleman liked working with Ron Rivera in Carolina, he might be interested in a reunion.

 

[Dantés]

Nice list. I would swap Kitchens and Patricia though. Cleveland is a complete circus, don't see how that's salvageable. With Detroit, the results haven't been great, but they were 3-4-1 and were sort of trending on an improvement over 6-10 in year 1 before losing Stafford. They've also lost just 1 game by more than a single score. I feel like he'll get another year, but I could be wrong.

Could be. I just wonder how much the Stafford injury will help Patricia's odds. He's the "defensive genius" and his defense has been horrendous all season.

I agree that Cleveland has been a circus. The question, to me, is whether Kitchens gets blamed for them, or the FO realizes that such a situation was basically inevitable once they stuffed that locker room chuck full of divas, clowns, and thugs.

But if someone made a list with those two swapped, I wouldn't argue.

 

[PackAttack12]

Could be. I just wonder how much the Stafford injury will help Patricia's odds. He's the "defensive genius" and his defense has been horrendous all season.

I agree that Cleveland has been a circus. The question, to me, is whether Kitchens gets blamed for them, or the FO realizes that such a situation was basically inevitable once they stuffed that locker room chuck full of divas, clowns, and thugs.

But if someone made a list with those two swapped, I wouldn't argue.

Yeah. Interestingly, as you allude to, Patricia's defense hasn't been good at all while Stafford was on pace to have one of his best years ever.

Kitchens shouldn't necessarily get blamed for all of it, but I don't see him holding anyone accountable either. He's fed into it a little too much and enabled a lot of the behavior. If they're going to double down on the talent they have accumulated, I could see them going after a stronger ****** head coach to reign that situation in.

It'll certainly be interesting to see it all play out.

 

[El Guapo]

Kitchens could handle things better for sure, but that team would be tough for anyone to control. It's a put-together team with a lot of egos and expectations. It's also Freddie's first year. They'll give him another year to sort things out.

I believe in the notion that Patricia is building a better culture in Detroit. To me, that is a situation where the record isn't as important as the intangibles. We'll see how Mrs. Ford thinks about it though.

I think that Arians will get a pass as well, but he should start showing something more in the next few weeks if he doesn't want to be one and done.

 

[Stanger37]

If Kitchens were to stay and not get let go, which could happen, it would be the most Cleveland thing ever. A guy that shows up in the "Pittsburgh Started It" shirt because "my daughters thought it was funny"

The guy isn't adult enough to not throw gas on the fire, and now we expect him to be a coach of a team full of that many egos? It fits Cleveland and how we all know and expect from Cleveland.

IMO, anyone that thinks coaching doesn't matter...Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Cleveland are prime examples on why it DOES matter. You can even though Green Bay in that with how much chemistry the players have with each other this year.

 

[Stanger37]

Speaking of shakeups, let's check in on the hot seats around the league:

Totally Safe:

• Bill Belichick, NE
• Sean Payton, NO
• Kyle Shanahan, SF
• John Harbaugh, BAL
• Pete Carroll, SEA
• Sean McDermott, BUF
• Matt LaFleur, GB
• Andy Reid, KC
• Sean McVay, LAR
• Frank *****, IND
• Brian Flores, MIA
• Jon Gruden, OAK
• Zac Taylor, CIN

Probably Safe:

• Mike Zimmer, MIN
• Mike Tomlin, PIT
• Doug Pederson, PHI
• Mike Vrabel, TEN
• Bill O'Brien, HOU
• Vic Fangio, DEN
• Kliff Kingsbury, ARI

Borderline:

• Matt Nagy, CHI
• Pat Shurmer, NYG
• Adam Gase, NYJ
• Bruce Arians, TB
• Anthony Lynn, LAC
• Freddie Kitchens, CLE

Probably Gone:

• Matt Patricia, DET
• Ron Rivera, CAR
• Jason Garrett, DAL
• Doug Marrone, JAC
• Dan Quinn, ATL

Already Gone:

• Jay Gruden, WAS

I would put the over/under line for fired coaches right at 9.5 this year.

Rivera gone per Adam Schefter

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[Dantés]

Rivera is a darn good coach. I would happily see him on a Packers staff in some capacity.

 

[XPack]

Jason Garrett, DAL

Despite being awful, they might win the division and make playoff's. If the win at least 1 game in playoff's, then Jason might be safe for one more season....but then this years playoff teams are all tougher than Dallas.

 

[PackAttack12]

Rivera is a darn good coach. I would happily see him on a Packers staff in some capacity.

Agreed. He'll get another head coaching gig at some point. Probably in 2020.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Rivera is a darn good coach. I would happily see him on a Packers staff in some capacity.

I highly doubt Rivera is interested in being an assistant though.

 

[swhitset]

I highly doubt Rivera is interested in being an assistant though.

It certainly wouldn’t be unprecedented.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It certainly wouldn’t be unprecedented.

True, but I expect him to be offered a head coaching job somewhere else though with the Giants being a possibility next offseason.

 

[PackAttack12]

Speaking of shakeups, let's check in on the hot seats around the league:

Totally Safe:

• Bill Belichick, NE
• Sean Payton, NO
• Kyle Shanahan, SF
• John Harbaugh, BAL
• Pete Carroll, SEA
• Sean McDermott, BUF
• Matt LaFleur, GB
• Andy Reid, KC
• Sean McVay, LAR
• Frank *****, IND
• Brian Flores, MIA
• Jon Gruden, OAK
• Zac Taylor, CIN

Probably Safe:

• Mike Zimmer, MIN
• Mike Tomlin, PIT
• Doug Pederson, PHI
• Mike Vrabel, TEN
• Bill O'Brien, HOU
• Vic Fangio, DEN
• Kliff Kingsbury, ARI

Borderline:

• Matt Nagy, CHI
• Pat Shurmer, NYG
• Adam Gase, NYJ
• Bruce Arians, TB
• Anthony Lynn, LAC
• Freddie Kitchens, CLE

Probably Gone:

• Matt Patricia, DET
• Ron Rivera, CAR
• Jason Garrett, DAL
• Doug Marrone, JAC
• Dan Quinn, ATL

Already Gone:

• Jay Gruden, WAS

I would put the over/under line for fired coaches right at 9.5 this year.

Coaches that will return in 2020:

• Adam Gase, NYJ
• Matt Patricia, DET
• Dan Quinn, ATL
• Doug Marrone, JAC

Coaches that have been relieved:

• Jay Gruden, WAS
• Ron Rivera, CAR
• Pat Shurmer, NYG
• Freddie Kitchens, CLE

Pending:

• Jason Garrett, DAL

All others seem to be safe.