Player(s) Likeliest to Regress Next Season

[BorderRivals.com]

The opposite of Ivo's thread. We might as well call it the AJ Hawk thread - who's the likeliest to regress this coming season?

Casey Hayward. Trust me, I don't want this to happen. But he was simply unreal this season. Sophomore slump. And it'll be hard to replicate his season. Maybe? Hopefully not!

Desmond Bishop (Frank's going to hate me). He's coming off a nasty injury. Even with a full season to rehab, it may take him more time to fully regain his prior form.

James Jones - He had a hell of year. No way he duplicates the TD receptions again, and he had just a small handfull of drops.

 

[rodell330]

I think if Casy Hayward stays healthy he will have season similar to this one. He's got a nose for the football and that's a trait you can't teach or take away from a guy. Guy's like Woodson, Ed Reed, etc have that makeup and Haywayrd is next in line.

Bishop is a question mark. In fact both inside backers are question marks in my book so who knows. I look at both he and Hawk and i don't see all pro on either guy like you see on guy's like Patrick Willis, or Brian Cushing.

 

[ivo610]

I remember people got upset when I said Rodgers would regress a bit after his MVP season. Lol

Besides jones it's hard to see anyone that will decline as alot of players were Mediocre this season. Raji, bulaga, hawk, Nelson, ect

Cobb will get more touches so I won't predict him. Rodgers is elite even with a bad season by his standards. Nelson was hurt so he should get better. Jones will have less TDs but could still be a major player in the offense.

Shields maybe if he is resigned?

 

[HyponGrey]

Wilson and Hawk are the most likely in my mind to take a step back. Bishop, Smith, and Worthy are coming off injury which could hurt, but Smith and Worthy probably aren't going to see much field time anyway. Moses is a possibility, but he's another guy I don't expect to see much. Raji, Shields, Hayward, Pickett are also possibilities to fall back. Tramon is already slumped, and Burnett is pointing up. Neal is finally healthy, so he's pointing up, Daniels has only upside, McMillian has only upside.

I really don't know about offense though, Jones Finley Harris and Sitton were about the only guys who ended on a high note, Green is pointing up, Boykin is pointing up, Barclay would be my pick, but he (hopefully) won't see the field next year, and it seems everybody else on O (who isn't FA) had at least a little slump or is a relative unknown.

On ST I can see Lattimore regressing. Masthay is the only other guy I could foresee, he had a bit of trouble at the end there. Bush and Crosby already in a bit of slump, and Goode has always been... well, good.

 

[El Guapo]

I'm not understanding the Hawk thoughts. He's been the most consistent player (except for his above average 2010 season). He doesn't wow, he doesn't make big mistakes, he just continues doing his thing.

I also don't see any way that James Jones will go backwards. He stepped forwards because Jennings and Nelson were hurt so much. Nelson will be our #1 receiver with Jones and Cobb handling the #2 and #3 roles. Jones will continue to get lots of touches, and I think that most agree that he has more potential.

Since I've only skewered, I should put my thoughts out there for dissecting. I think that DuJuan Harris will not be much of a factor in the running game, just a glimmer of hope in all of our eyes. I also don't think that Dezman Moses will step forward as much as we'd like. I also think that Jerron McMillian will regress. . .and for my biggest prediction, A-Rod will regress meaning that he will not perform as well in 2013 and he did in 2012. I'm not predicting a meltdown, but just less production.

 

[BorderRivals.com]

I'm not understanding the Hawk thoughts. He's been the most consistent player (except for his above average 2010 season). He doesn't wow, he doesn't make big mistakes, he just continues doing his thing.

I also don't see any way that James Jones will go backwards. He stepped forwards because Jennings and Nelson were hurt so much. Nelson will be our #1 receiver with Jones and Cobb handling the #2 and #3 roles. Jones will continue to get lots of touches, and I think that most agree that he has more potential.

Since I've only skewered, I should put my thoughts out there for dissecting. I think that DuJuan Harris will not be much of a factor in the running game, just a glimmer of hope in all of our eyes. I also don't think that Dezman Moses will step forward as much as we'd like. I also think that Jerron McMillian will regress. . .and for my biggest prediction, A-Rod will regress meaning that he will not perform as well in 2013 and he did in 2012. I'm not predicting a meltdown, but just less production.

Hawk has been consistently below average. He racks up tackles, but there always 4-5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He also hasn't been part of a turnover play in TWO seasons - meaning no FF, FR, or INT! That's just terrible for a MLB. Heck, they kept Brad Jones - who just transitioned to MLB this season - in on passing downs over Hawk. If ever there was a sign that Hawk is below-average, I'm not sure what else will signal it.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Hawk has been consistently below average. He racks up tackles, but there always 4-5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He also hasn't been part of a turnover play in TWO seasons - meaning no FF, FR, or INT! That's just terrible for a MLB

That really is unbelievable for an ILB... but it's been said about him for a long time.
It's such a shame we had a chance to draft a special specimen, who also is a Packer Player Type, in Haloti Ngata at that pick.
He's what we dream Raji could be like.

For regressing, I will say Mike Neal.
I predict we just got the best stuff he'll ever give us.
Either he gets hurt again and is out, or gets hurt and can't do anything.

 

[BorderRivals.com]

That really is unbelievable for an ILB... but it's been said about him for a long time.
It's such a shame we had a chance to draft a special specimen, who also is a Packer Player Type, in Haloti Ngata at that pick.
He's what we dream Raji could be like.

For regressing, I will say Mike Neal.
I predict we just got the best stuff he'll ever give us.
Either he gets hurt again and is out, or gets hurt and can't do anything.

I really wish I didn't just learn we could have had Ngata instead of Hawk! That is depressing. I was always ok with the fact we passed on VD since he was a mutt for most of his career. But, Ngata has always been a beast and would be unreal to have on this team! Plus, we wouldn't have had to draft Raji with the 9th selection. Orakpo was taken 4 picks later. The trickle-down effect.

 

[FrankRizzo]

I really wish I didn't just learn we could have had Ngata instead of Hawk! That is depressing. I was always ok with the fact we passed on VD since he was a mutt for most of his career. But, Ngata has always been a beast and would be unreal to have on this team! Plus, we wouldn't have had to draft Raji with the 9th selection. Orakpo was taken 4 picks later. The trickle-down effect.

Well..... to make you feel not as depressed, on the trickle-down effect: had that all happened, we wouldn't have gotten Clay Matthews had we taken Orakpo then..... and Orakpo was out this whole year......

Also available when we took Hawk were Chad Greenway and Tamba Hali.
Could have been worse though: Vince Young, Ernie Sims, and Matt Leinart were top 10 picks that draft as well, all taken before Ngata!

 

[HyponGrey]

I'm not understanding the Hawk thoughts. He's been the most consistent player (except for his above average 2010 season). He doesn't wow, he doesn't make big mistakes, he just continues doing his thing.

I also don't see any way that James Jones will go backwards. He stepped forwards because Jennings and Nelson were hurt so much. Nelson will be our #1 receiver with Jones and Cobb handling the #2 and #3 roles. Jones will continue to get lots of touches, and I think that most agree that he has more potential.

Since I've only skewered, I should put my thoughts out there for dissecting. I think that DuJuan Harris will not be much of a factor in the running game, just a glimmer of hope in all of our eyes. I also don't think that Dezman Moses will step forward as much as we'd like. I also think that Jerron McMillian will regress. . .and for my biggest prediction, A-Rod will regress meaning that he will not perform as well in 2013 and he did in 2012. I'm not predicting a meltdown, but just less production.

Because Hawk had one of his better years (eye test). If he's been so solid for so long he's due for a down year.

Jones had a big year, it's normal to expect him to regress a bit.

I don't understand your McMillian regression. He played well this year even though he just started learning the system, and next year, having spent a year in the system with the instincts and athleticism he displayed I don't see how he doesn't take a step forward. I fully expect him to take the starting role, else he'll keep doing what he did this year, sit on the bench.

 

[ivo610]

I'd kill to see an old draft board. How close we were to drafting so n so

 

[FrankRizzo]

I'd kill to see an old draft board. How close we were to drafting so n so

The only one I know for sure was back in Ray Lewis' draft, Ron Wolf was about to take him.... just one pick before him, the Ravens stole him. He would have been a rookie Packer in 1996. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/the-architect-speaks-je5f47h-153333975.html

Q. Ron Wolf talked about missing out on certain guys in a draft, the most notable being Ray Lewis by one pick in 1996. He then went with John Michels instead. Is there a guy or two you just missed out on and it still bugs you today?
A. I'm sure there are, but I try not to dwell on that. I also don't have the memory that Ron has. But I do remember that particular draft.

 

[ivo610]

The only one I know for sure was back in Ray Lewis' draft, Ron Wolf was about to take him.... just one pick before him, the Ravens stole him. He would have been a rookie Packer in 1996. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/the-architect-speaks-je5f47h-153333975.html

Yeah I first heard that when I read John feinstein's book Next man up. It's an author following the ravens for a season and he talks about Lewis coming to the team and how the packers had him on the phone and were waiting for Baltimore to finish picking.

Man, ray Lewis as a rookie on the 96 team?!? Yikes

 

[BorderRivals.com]

I don't understand your McMillian regression. He played well this year even though he just started learning the system, and next year, having spent a year in the system with the instincts and athleticism he displayed I don't see how he doesn't take a step forward. I fully expect him to take the starting role, else he'll keep doing what he did this year, sit on the bench.

I'm not sure you can say that McMillian played well this season. He started out decent enough and saw a lot of action. But, around the mid-point of the year, he ceased playing much of any role in the defense. He was primarily special teams and an occasional snap in the goal line packages. I don't understand why, because I generally had the same impression as you (I distinctly recall him having a heck of a game at Seattle). Maybe it was the rookie wall, or maybe it just never clicked. Either way, I'm hesitant to jump aboard without seeing more from him. Because he obviously didn't earn the coaches trust last season.

 

[HyponGrey]

I'm not sure you can say that McMillian played well this season. He started out decent enough and saw a lot of action. But, around the mid-point of the year, he ceased playing much of any role in the defense. He was primarily special teams and an occasional snap in the goal line packages. I don't understand why, because I generally had the same impression as you (I distinctly recall him having a heck of a game at Seattle). Maybe it was the rookie wall, or maybe it just never clicked. Either way, I'm hesitant to jump aboard without seeing more from him. Because he obviously didn't earn the coaches trust last season.

He played better than Jennings IMO, but he had trouble lining up and staying in position, which is why Jennings got the nod mid season. All that is fixed by knowing the system better. He's generally a box S, the closer to the LOS, the more you like him, but has potential in coverage, as evidenced by his snaps as deep middle S in our 3S looks. If you remember he also saw looks at CB, specifically Seattle on the hail marys (Burnett Woodson and Jennings were the 3 deep S, but he also was plugged at Dime CB every now again)

 

[El Guapo]

Sometimes you just go with a gut feeling that you can't describe, and that's how I feel about McMillan. I wish and hope that he will improve, but have a feeling he will regress.

Missing out on picking Ray Lewis isn't terrible compared to missing out on these guys because you picked Tony Mandarich at #2:

#3 Barry Sanders
#4 Derrick Thomas
#5 Deion Sanders
#6 Broderick Thomas
#12 Trace Armstrong
#13 Eric Metcalf
#20 Steve Atwater
#22 Andre Rison

and then further down in the draft:
2nd Round - Steve Wisniewski
2nd Round - Moose Johnson
2nd Round - Wes Walls
4th Round - Ray Crockett
10th Round - Mark Schlereth

 

[TJV]

IMO it's likely Hayward's stats will regress but I also think it's likely he will progress but his INTs per snap can decline as opponents test him less than they did this season.

Strictly speaking Bishop can't regress since he didn't play a snap in the regular season, but I get what you mean. He's had a lot of time to heal but every injury and how a player's body and mind reacts to it is unique.

James Jones is probably the easiest call at least regarding TD numbers. He could have a very good season and still "regress" in that category.

IMO if McMillian regresses he'll be waived. McGinn gave him a D-plus and says the reason he wasn't on the field later in the season was coverage/recognition issues. That could improve with a year in the league and in the system. He does hit but if he doesn't have the necessary instincts for a safety, that's almost impossible to teach IMO. Don't get me wrong, he could take the big leap McCarthy often talks about for players in their second year.

MD Jennings got a C-minus on McGinn's scorecard. He's fast and can cover but those who want to see the D get more physical should want to see him replaced as a starter.

As I've previously posted, I think finding a starting safety is second only to improving the pass rush on D. I hope they don't go into next season counting on either McMillian or Jennings. It'll be great if either improves enough to qualify for the other list, I just don't want to have to count on it. Unfortunately I don't think Woodson can be counted on either because of injuries and his age.

 

[FrankRizzo]

McGinn gave McMillian a D+ and says the reason he wasn't on the field later in the season was coverage/recognition issues. That could improve with a year in the league and in the system. He does hit but if he doesn't have the necessary instincts for a safety, that's almost impossible to teach IMO. Don't get me wrong, he could take the big leap McCarthy often talks about for players in their second year.

MD Jennings got a C- on McGinn's scorecard. He's fast and can cover but those who want to see the D get more physical should want to see him replaced as a starter.

As I've previously posted, I think finding a starting safety is second only to improving the pass rush on D. I hope they don't go into next season counting on either McMillian or Jennings. It'll be great if either improves enough to qualify for the other list, I just don't want to have to count on it. Unfortunately I don't think Woodson can be counted on either because of injuries and his age.

What grade did the wizard McGinn give Morgan Burnett?
What grade on Woodson?

I'm beginning to think that the problem back there starts with the safeties coach.
Nick Collins covered up a lot of issues back there.

 

[BorderRivals.com]

What grade did the wizard McGinn give Morgan Burnett?
What grade on Woodson?

I'm beginning to think that the problem back there starts with the safeties coach.
Nick Collins covered up a lot of issues back there.

I disagree. I think it's a matter of talent. Burnett and Jennings weren't huge liability back there - on the premise that I don't recall too many plays where they got embarrassed in pass coverage. As a result, the coaching appears to be doing what it can with the talent provided. To put it another way, I don't see anything about Burnett, Jennings, or McMillian that makes me think they are being underutilized. They just aren't elite safeties - which is not to say they aren't capable and good starters.

 

[TJV]

Burnett got a B-minus and Woodson got a C. His evaluation of Burnett is a mixed bag but he bluntly writes Woodson shouldn't be back. Check out the grades for the defenders here:
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/individual-report-card-defense-2b8e22q-187608681.html
(I recommend all the "grading" articles.)

I wonder if Woodson would play for DD numbers: About $2.3M? They'll probably pay him more but I hope not much more. McGinn has a point: Woodson can't cover outside and struggles covering inside. And his gambling undermines the D at times because his body can't seem to keep up with what his vast experience and study "tell" him.

Based on their 2012 play, I don't think either MD Jennings or McMillian are "good". Both are young and both gained a ton of experience but IMO they have to get a safety as good or better than Burnett. I hope one of the youngsters is that player but I am in no way certain of it.

 

[rodell330]

Burnett got a B-minus and Woodson got a C. His evaluation of Burnett is a mixed bag but he bluntly writes Woodson shouldn't be back. Check out the grades for the defenders here:
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/individual-report-card-defense-2b8e22q-187608681.html
(I recommend all the "grading" articles.)

I wonder if Woodson would play for DD numbers: About $2.3M? They'll probably pay him more but I hope not much more. McGinn has a point: Woodson can't cover outside and struggles covering inside. And his gambling undermines the D at times because his body can't seem to keep up with what his vast experience and study "tell" him.

Based on their 2012 play, I don't think either MD Jennings or McMillian are "good". Both are young and both gained a ton of experience but IMO they have to get a safety as good or better than Burnett. I hope one of the youngsters is that player but I am in no way certain of it.

We shoulda took the kid from Notre Dame who went to Minnesota instead of Nick Perry if that's the case.

 

[rodell330]

We shoulda took the Smith dude from Notre Dame who went to Minnesota instead of Nick Perry if that's the case.

 

[TJV]

We shoulda took the kid from Notre Dame who went to Minnesota instead of Nick Perry if that's the case.

shoulda.. woulda… coulda… you can drive yourself nuts with that. It used to bother me that the Packers could have had Ronnie Lott and instead picked Rich Campbell because they "needed" a (bad) QB. But what's done is done and rehashing that doesn't do anyone any good.

Going into last year's draft an OLB opposite Clay was a major need IMO and allowing Clay to return to the weak side was a great idea. Whether or not Perry fulfills his potential is obviously an open question. From everything I've read and seen, I think the critical element of how Perry's NFL career turns out will be his desire/motivation. IMO the good news is he has all the physical attributes necessary: If he can get and stay relatively healthy and had Clay's instincts and desire he could be a star. Lot's of ifs but even so, I think the first need on D is DL, then safety…

 

[El Guapo]

Side-tracking a bit, last year was the best draft that I've seen out of the Minnesota Vikings in years. They eliminated their "triangle of power" and put Spielman in charge of the draft. What happened? The guy drafts their LT of the future in Matt Kahlil, a real scrapper at safety in Harrison Smith, and a phenomenal PK in Blair Walsh. Minnesota could be an interesting team in the next year or two if they continue to draft well