Pick #30, Who are your favorite prospects?

[Dantés]

Exactly my point. Production is the ultimate goal.. athleticism is just one method from many of getting there. Production ultimately shows the being able to use the tools (Athleticism, Mental capacity, internal Drive, Confidence, instincts.. among others).

It’s OK to gamble on athleticism occasionally if there are flashes of production (See Gary, Spriggs, etc..) but in no way should we use a college player with lower production to scold a high production player, which is what was ultimately used as his argument.

If this is true, then explain to me why we shouldn't just target the most productive players at each position and draft them.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think there are receivers that could turn into good pros after the first couple tiers, I just think that if you're looking for help THIS year, then only the first or second tier of guys is really going to make a difference.

I view all draft picks as 1-5 year investments that may not pay off until Year 2 and beyond. The offense would most definitely benefit from a rookie WR that could jump right in and be a heavy contributor in year 1, but I think a RT or an ILB doing the same, might be more of an overall benefit to the team in 2020.

 

[OldSchool101]

College production does not equal NFL production.

Time and Time again we've seen high production at the college level with below average athleticism flame out in the NFL.

Who's the below average athletically WR doing well in the NFL?

You’re sidestepping your position of using athleticism (D.K. Was your example) to minimize
T Higgins as another posters viable, end of round 1, interest. I was simply agreeing with said poster (not you) that he was a fine prospect. You don’t have to agree with us or you can even think Higgins is awful like you said, but you saying a player can’t be successful without being the most athletic in his class isn’t consistent with the draft history. Plenty of players who were successful in college and sneaked into a late day 1 #30 type pick don’t have that flashy athleticism you seem to think is imperative, yet their high college production translated.

 

[OldSchool101]

If this is true, then explain to me why we shouldn't just target the most productive players at each position and draft them.

Explain to me first why we should ignore the performance of athletes that excelled (1st team Division 1 types) draft day?? Are you insinuating we should ignore a 1st team D1 WR selection altogether.. Just because you don’t like a particular player or don’t like another posters opinion?

Wait. Don’t answer that. This is a ridiculous thing to have to defend an ALL consensus top #40 selection. You obviously know more than the experts.

 

[Dantés]

Explain to me first why we should ignore the performance of athletes that excelled (1st team Division 1 types) draft day?? Are you insinuating we should ignore a 1st team D1 WR selection altogether.. Just because you don’t like a particular player or don’t like another posters opinion?

Wait. Don’t answer that. This is a ridiculous thing to have to defend an ALL consensus top #40 selection. You obviously know more than the experts.

I'm saying that as fans, if we want to develop opinions, we should assess the things we have access to: tape and metrics, and make a judgement based on those things. I don't care about production or accolades without context. I want to know what prospects can do, not just what they produced at the previous level.

If you want us all to just agree with the consensus, then we're in luck! Arif Hasan scours the major draft media outlets and creates an aggregate every year. The latest dropped today. Higgins is #35. So we can all log in to our Athletic accounts, read the consensus board and just agree that it's correct and no one can deviate or else they're arrogant and ridiculous and claiming to know more than the experts. Sounds exciting!

Why are you getting snarky anyways, OldSchool? We were just talking.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I view all draft picks as 1-5 year investments that may not pay off until Year 2 and beyond. The offense would most definitely benefit from a rookie WR that could jump right in and be a heavy contributor in year 1, but I think a RT or an ILB doing the same, might be more of an overall benefit to the team in 2020.

ILBs aren't really that important in their impact unless you get someone like Kuechly, who doesn't really exist in this draft. Sure, it's not great when your team has a bad ILB, but on the hierarchy, there's a reason they don't get paid like corners, safeties, and pass rushers (overall, there are exceptions for the truly elite at every position). RT would be nice but great QBs can improve their olines through recognizing the rush, moving in the pocket, and getting rid of the ball. I wouldn't object to a RT but I think a receiver is a much bigger need for this offense right now (and going forward since there aren't really any young guys that have shown potential to develop into very good NFL receivers).

 

[GleefulGary]

You’re sidestepping your position of using athleticism (D.K. Was your example) to minimize
T Higgins as another posters viable, end of round 1, interest. I was simply agreeing with said poster (not you) that he was a fine prospect. You don’t have to agree with us or you can even think Higgins is awful like you said, but you saying a player can’t be successful without being the most athletic in his class isn’t consistent with the draft history. Plenty of players who were successful in college and sneaked into a late day 1 #30 type pick don’t have that flashy athleticism you seem to think is imperative, yet their high college production translated.

1) You were the poster who initially brought up DK Metcalf. I was just highlighting why he and Higgins aren't comparable situations.

2) Never said a player has to be the most athletic. Try to find it, please.

3) Never said Higgins is awful.

4) I asked for an example of a high caliber WR who is a below average athlete like Higgins in recent times. I'm waiting...

5) When you are quoting me, and have the ability to look up prior posts on the same page, there's no excuse for you to butcher an argument so much. Please try to get your facts straight.

 

[GleefulGary]

Explain to me first why we should ignore the performance of athletes that excelled (1st team Division 1 types) draft day?? Are you insinuating we should ignore a 1st team D1 WR selection altogether.. Just because you don’t like a particular player or don’t like another posters opinion?

Wait. Don’t answer that. This is a ridiculous thing to have to defend an ALL consensus top #40 selection. You obviously know more than the experts.

Okay.

Eric Crouch won the Heisman. Clearly a great draft prospect, right?

There are other similar examples, but I think that will do.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm saying that as fans, if we want to develop opinions, we should assess the things we have access to: tape and metrics, and make a judgement based on those things. I don't care about production or accolades without context. I want to know what prospects can do, not just what they produced at the previous level.
If you want us all to just agree with the consensus, then we're in luck!
Why are you getting snarky anyways, OldSchool? We were just talking.

True that.
Anyway, At least now you’re agreeing you are definitely NOT with the consensus or myself on Higgins!

 

[OldSchool101]

Okay.

Eric Crouch won the Heisman. Clearly a great draft prospect, right?

There are other similar examples, but I think that will do.

oh yeah! I just remembered last year I had this exact debate because I liked Devin Singleterry day 2. The other posted (on another forum.. discus??) said he’s terrible because he has an awful combine. I mean a RB who runs a 4.68!!! Are you kidding me!
That poster said he was a terrible pick before deep into day 3. Maybe a 6th? Excuse me?? How’d that workout for a mid 3rd rounder? Why do you think he was a top #75 overall draftee? I got one word... his freaking college production!

btw. These are just off the top of my head. No research whatsoever went into either player. beaucoup players with pedestrian measurable do well in the NFL every year and multiples at every player position. Again, you put too much weight on Tee’s (and maybe in general) 40 time. His 1st gear is pedestrian but you best not give him a yard in stride (reminds me of Jordy). He ain’t little either at 6’4”X216 and room to grow without even playing his Sr season. As a Sophomore he nearly clipped 1000 with 12 TDs! They said he’d likely drop off because he wasn’t polished and Clemson spread it around too much. How’d that workout his Junior year?? I’ll answer that. Nearly 1,200 yards 13TD and 20.1 per touch!!!’ That’s a dropoff?!? Yikes!

 

[GleefulGary]

Calvin Ridley. Terrible Combine. Who’s better out of college? Calvin Ridley or Tee Higgins?
1. Measurables?
2. Stats?

oh yeah! I just remembered last year I had this exact debate because I liked Devin Singleterry day 2. The other posted (on another forum.. discus??) said he’s terrible because he has an awful combine. I mean a RB who runs a 4.68!!! Are you kidding me!
That poster said he was a terrible pick before deep into day 3. Maybe a 6th? Excuse me?? How’d that workout for a mid 3rd rounder? Why do you think he was a top #75 overall draftee? I got one word... his freaking college production!

btw. These are just off the top of my head. No research whatsoever went into either player. beaucoup players with pedestrian measurable do well in the NFL every year and multiples at every player position. Again, you put too much weight on Tee’s (and maybe in general) 40 time. His 1st gear is pedestrian but you best not give him a yard in stride (reminds me of Jordy). He ain’t little either at 6’4”X216 and room to grow without even playing his Sr season. As a Sophomore he nearly clipped 1000 with 12 TDs! They said he’d likely drop off because he wasn’t polished and Clemson spread it around too much. How’d that workout his Junior year?? I’ll answer that. Nearly 1,200 yards 13TD and 20.1 per touch!!!’ That’s a dropoff?!? Yikes!

Lol. I loved Ridley. He's a far different type of player than Higgins. Higgins is a below average athlete in every single test. Sprints, jumps, shuttles, he's below average. It matters. Ignore it at your own peril.

You're not really responding to anything, so it doesn't appear as if you want a discussion. If you wanna talk, by all means, continue.

 

[OldSchool101]

Lol. I loved Ridley. He's a far different type of player than Higgins. Higgins is a below average athlete in every single test. Sprints, jumps, shuttles, he's below average. It matters. Ignore it at your own peril.

You're not really responding to anything, so it doesn't appear as if you want a discussion. If you wanna talk, by all means, continue.

apologize I’m babysitting! Lol.

Here’s a related article that states my argument clearly. Just happen to be reading it today and it’s so true.

1. “Never say the NFL combine doesn't matter. It certainly does.
   
   Ask Dalvin Cook, DK Metcalf and Orlando Brown Jr. Each of them heard their name called a round or two later than expected after concerning performances within the confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.
   
   The combine shouldn't be the determining factor behind an individual's draft standing. What they put on film says more about their capabilities than what occurs in spandex on field turf in front of hundreds of NFL scouts and decision-makers.
   
   With that said, a disastrous performance in Indianapolis will affect a prospect's stock.
   
   Cook and Metcalf displayed poor change-of-direction times. They both fell a round lower than their play and previous standing dictated. Both should have been first-round picks, and they've proved as much during their professional careers. Brown looked sloppy, slow and unathletic.
   
   "I'm here to tell you to pay attention to his film..." Brown said in a series of tweets arguing how an individual plays the position should matter more than his performance at the combine.
   
   All of this now applies to Iowa's A.J. Epenesa. His draft stock took a hit after an uninspiring combine performance. The edge-rusher didn't look explosive or all that athletic during his performance. The 6'5", 275-pound defensive end posted a 5.04-second 40-yard dash and average-to-poor change-of-direction times.
   
   This will have an effect and likely drop him into the second round, even in a weak edge class.
   
   But Epenesa is a two-time All-Big Ten performer with very good power and an all-around game. Like those before him who tested poorly, the 21-year-old prospect can prove everyone wrong once he's in the NFL”
   Ironically I was reading this recent article from Bleacher Report and went ahead and copied the whole link also to give them credit. They know that they’re talking about too and it pertains to our debate.
   
   
   https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2885142-2020-nfl-draft-25-predictions-with-under-a-month-to-go
   
   
   
2. btw, I’d be all over Epenesa round 2 and it’s not a priority. But if he makes it anywhere near mid-round 2? I’d trade up.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Who's the below average athletically WR doing well in the NFL?

As a crude measure of athleticism, I recon we can say an average starting NFL WR would be around 4.50 in the 40, with 35" vertical and a 7.00 3-cone.

[Note: Upon review of this post, I get all the nfl.com links routing to the NFL Game Pass page. If a reader has the same problem with those links and wants to challenge this assessment, then look 'em up for your own d*mn self. ]

Among last seasons 1,000 yard WRs, here are the guys with sub-par or average Combine measureables by that standard:

• Michael Thomas, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/michael-thomas?id=2555347
• De'Andre Hopkins, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/deandre-hopkins?id=2540165
• Kenny Golladay, around average http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/kenny-golladay?id=2558052
• Jarvis Landry, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jarvis-landry?id=2543488
• Cooper Kupp, sub par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/cooper-kupp?id=2557898
• Mike Evans, around average http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/mike-evans?id=2543468
• Allen Robinson, sub par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/allen-robinson?id=2543509
• Robert Woods sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/robert-woods?id=2540169
  
• Stefon Diggs, around average https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/stat/receiving/table/receiving/sort/receivingYards/dir/desc
• Michael Gallup, around average https://www.nfl.com/prospects/michael-gallup?id=32194741-4c77-9981-95e1-30b1c57c6002
• A.J. Brown, around average https://www.nfl.com/prospects/a.j.-brown?id=32194252-4f41-3223-e4c5-1e30dffa87f8
• Tyler Boyd, sub-par http:http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000793407/article/
• Mike Williams, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/mike-williams?id=2557966 & http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000793407/article/mike-williams-clocks-official-40-in-45-range-at-pro-day

So, of the 25 WR with 1,000 yards last season, I count 7 that measure below average (including 2 of the 3 first team All Pros) and 6 that measured around average, about half of those 1,000 yarders.

While I would not go so far as some who say the Combine drills don't matter and it's all about the tape, you do get an idea of what those guys are getting at. I find myself leaning that way as the years tick by.

 

[HardRightEdge]

As for the poll, none of them.

 

[Dantés]

As a crude measure of athleticism, I recon we can say an average starting NFL WR would be around 4.50 in the 40, with 35" vertical and a 7.00 3-cone.

[Note: Upon review of this post, I get all the nfl.com links routing to the NFL Game Pass page. If a reader has the same problem with those links and wants to challenge this assessment, then look 'em up for your own d*mn self. ]

Among last seasons 1,000 yard WRs, here are the guys with sub-par or average Combine measureables by that standard:

• Michael Thomas, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/michael-thomas?id=2555347
• De'Andre Hopkins, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/deandre-hopkins?id=2540165
• Kenny Golladay, around average http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/kenny-golladay?id=2558052
• Jarvis Landry, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jarvis-landry?id=2543488
• Cooper Kupp, sub par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/cooper-kupp?id=2557898
• Mike Evans, around average http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/mike-evans?id=2543468
• Allen Robinson, sub par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/allen-robinson?id=2543509
• Robert Woods sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/robert-woods?id=2540169
  
• Stefon Diggs, around average https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/stat/receiving/table/receiving/sort/receivingYards/dir/desc
• Michael Gallup, around average https://www.nfl.com/prospects/michael-gallup?id=32194741-4c77-9981-95e1-30b1c57c6002
• A.J. Brown, around average https://www.nfl.com/prospects/a.j.-brown?id=32194252-4f41-3223-e4c5-1e30dffa87f8
• Tyler Boyd, sub-par http:http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000793407/article/
• Mike Williams, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/mike-williams?id=2557966 & http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000793407/article/mike-williams-clocks-official-40-in-45-range-at-pro-day

So, of the 25 WR with 1,000 yards last season, I count 7 that measure below average (including 2 of the 3 first team All Pros) and 6 that measured around average, about half of those 1,000 yarders.

While I would not go so far as some who say the Combine drills don't matter and it's all about the tape, you do get an idea of what those guys are getting at. I find myself leaning that way as the years tick by.

I strongly disagree with a lot of these takes on the quality of their athleticism. Measures like sparq and RAS that aggregate various metrics and adjust for size help reveal this.

Michael Thomas is a very good athlete-- 83% sparq, 9.12 RAS

Kenny Golladay is definitely an above athlete-- 66% sparq, 8.93 RAS

Mike Evans is an above average athlete-- 72% sparq, 6.98 RAS

Allen Robinson is an elite athlete-- 99.7% sparq, 8.86 RAS

A.J. Brown is a really good athlete-- 76% sparq, 8.6 RAS

Mike Williams was dealing with a back injury during the pre-draft process.

Even among these other WR's that aren't great athletes, you're not going to find a 1.66 10 yd split, 4.53 SS, or got disqualified from the 3 cone drill...

 

[HardRightEdge]

I strongly disagree with a lot of these takes on the quality of their athleticism. Measures like sparq and RAS that aggregate various metrics and adjust for size help reveal this.

Michael Thomas is a very good athlete-- 83% sparq, 9.12 RAS

Kenny Golladay is definitely an above athlete-- 66% sparq, 8.93 RAS

Mike Evans is an above average athlete-- 72% sparq, 6.98 RAS

Allen Robinson is an elite athlete-- 99.7% sparq, 8.86 RAS

A.J. Brown is a really good athlete-- 76% sparq, 8.6 RAS

Mike Williams was dealing with a back injury during the pre-draft process.

Even among these other WR's that aren't great athletes, you're not going to find a 1.66 10 yd split, 4.53 SS, or got disqualified from the 3 cone drill...

Ok, then don't quote 40 times, verticals or 3-cone times as athletic benchmarks.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Even among these other WR's that aren't great athletes, you're not going to find a 1.66 10 yd split, 4.53 SS, or got disqualified from the 3 cone drill...

I'll bite. Who is he? Oh, wait...you forgot the 31" vertical. I'm surprised you were paying that close attention.

 

[Dantés]

Ok, then don't quote 40 times, verticals or 3-cone times as athletic benchmarks.

I cite benchmarks as they relate to what has emerged over the years as Packer tendencies.

 

[GleefulGary]

As a crude measure of athleticism, I recon we can say an average starting NFL WR would be around 4.50 in the 40, with 35" vertical and a 7.00 3-cone.

[Note: Upon review of this post, I get all the nfl.com links routing to the NFL Game Pass page. If a reader has the same problem with those links and wants to challenge this assessment, then look 'em up for your own d*mn self. ]

Among last seasons 1,000 yard WRs, here are the guys with sub-par or average Combine measureables by that standard:

• Michael Thomas, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/michael-thomas?id=2555347
• De'Andre Hopkins, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/deandre-hopkins?id=2540165
• Kenny Golladay, around average http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/kenny-golladay?id=2558052
• Jarvis Landry, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jarvis-landry?id=2543488
• Cooper Kupp, sub par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/cooper-kupp?id=2557898
• Mike Evans, around average http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/mike-evans?id=2543468
• Allen Robinson, sub par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/allen-robinson?id=2543509
• Robert Woods sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/robert-woods?id=2540169
  
• Stefon Diggs, around average https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/stat/receiving/table/receiving/sort/receivingYards/dir/desc
• Michael Gallup, around average https://www.nfl.com/prospects/michael-gallup?id=32194741-4c77-9981-95e1-30b1c57c6002
• A.J. Brown, around average https://www.nfl.com/prospects/a.j.-brown?id=32194252-4f41-3223-e4c5-1e30dffa87f8
• Tyler Boyd, sub-par http:http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000793407/article/
• Mike Williams, sub-par http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/mike-williams?id=2557966 & http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000793407/article/mike-williams-clocks-official-40-in-45-range-at-pro-day

So, of the 25 WR with 1,000 yards last season, I count 7 that measure below average (including 2 of the 3 first team All Pros) and 6 that measured around average, about half of those 1,000 yarders.

While I would not go so far as some who say the Combine drills don't matter and it's all about the tape, you do get an idea of what those guys are getting at. I find myself leaning that way as the years tick by.

Which is why I used RAS to explain why Pittman and Higgins aren't comparable athletes.

It should be fairly obvious that athleticism is relative to size, I didn't think I would have to point it out.

 

[Dantés]

Speaking of RAS...

Gutekunst has made 19 picks as the GM of the Packers. Two of them were specialists (Scott and Bradley), so we will consider the total to be 17 for our purposes here.

15 of them had a RAS of 8.00 or better. I believe 12 of them had a RAS of 9.00 or better.

If you're mocking picks to GB and you want to be accurate, then make sure you're picking high end athletes.

Although I will add that what makes this year tricky is a lack of data or reliable data, generally. Pro days largely did not happen, and combine metrics were skewed by the schedule.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I cite benchmarks as they relate to what has emerged over the years as Packer tendencies.

You are right. From the "will they or won't they" perspective Higgens is a poor choice. Off the list he goes.
[QUOTE="GleefulGary, post: 871867, member: 12583"Higgins is a below average athlete in every single test. Sprints, jumps, shuttles, he's below average.[/QUOTE]
He did have an above average broad jump.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

what makes this year tricky is a lack of data or reliable data, generally. Pro days largely did not happen, and combine metrics were skewed by the schedule.

Gute even came out yesterday and said that he really isn't trusting or putting much into the videos that draft prospects are circulating. This is going to be a very interesting draft and season. I think there are going to be more than the usual whiffs and some steals. In past seasons we have seen a lot of guys sliding up and down the draft boards based on Pro Days, team visits and medical exams. This year teams are really going to have to rely heavily on early scouting, film, the combine and phone interviews.

The other part of this that we may potentially see play out, how will cancelled team workouts, practices, scrimmages effect the play of Rookies in 2020, if there is a 2020 season?

 

[Dantés]

Gute even came out yesterday and said that he really isn't trusting or putting much into the videos that draft prospects are circulating. This is going to be a very interesting draft and season. I think there are going to be more than the usual whiffs and some steals. In past seasons we have seen a lot of guys sliding up and down the draft boards based on Pro Days, team visits and medical exams. This year teams are really going to have to rely heavily on early scouting, film, the combine and phone interviews.

The other part of this that we may potentially see play out, how will cancelled team workouts, practices, scrimmages effect the play of Rookies in 2020, if there is a 2020 season?

I would say that what we've seen in the past is more the media catching on to who teams like at pro days and visits, rather than guys actually moving up team boards. But the lack of data on the athletic testing is certainly unique.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I could see a trade down into the upper 2nd. round and then using that extra pick to trade up in the 2nd.

For example, using the Jimmy Johnson chart, a trade down to 35 is worth 70 points.

The current 2nd. (284 points) + the current 3rd. (124 points) + 70 points in the trade down = 478 points, which gets you to #35 + #42.

Given the backing and filling in free agency, Gutekunst has positioned to take the best player available at a variety of positions from a one or two year perspective: WR, OT, DT, CB, ILB, though a 2nd. round ILB is somewhat improbable. It's impossible to know where Gutekunst sees the value cluster or whether he'd trade up for a guy he loves as with Savage or stands pat for one he loves that is falling to 30, but it does seem there's a cluster of good prospects in the 35 - 45 range where the differentiation from 25 - 35 is in team fits, preferences and needs.

 

[Dantés]

I could see a trade down into the upper 2nd. round and then using that extra pick to trade up in the 2nd.

For example, using the Jimmy Johnson chart, a trade down to 35 is worth 70 points.

The current 2nd. (284 points) + the current 3rd. (124 points) + 70 points in the trade down = 478 points, which gets you to #35 + #42.

Given the backing and filling in free agency, Gutekunst has positioned to take the best player available at a variety of positions from a one or two year perspective: WR, OT, DT, CB, ILB, though a 2nd. round ILB is somewhat improbable. It's impossible to know where Gutekunst sees the value cluster or whether he'd trade up for a guy he loves as with Savage or stands pat for one he loves that is falling to 30, but it does seem there's a cluster of good prospects in the 35 - 45 range where the differentiation from 25 - 35 is in team fits, preferences and needs.

Yeah, that scenario would not surprise me.