PFF Best and Worst vs Steelers

[tynimiller]

As always 10 snap minimums to be here on the lists:

BEST OFFENSE
Tucker Kraft - 93.6
Jordan Morgan - 83.5
Jordan Love - 81.2
Zach Tom - 80.9
Christian Watson - 79.6
(above 70s - Heath 78.0 | Doubs 75.2 | Savion 72.5)

WORST OFFENSE
Josh Jacobs - 45.2 (very VERY clear he isn't healthy)
Emanuel Wilson - 45.4 (ran well but he SUCKS at pass pro sometimes and did this night)
Luke Musgrave - 47.2
Matthew Golden - 52.1
John Fitzpatrick - 56.5

BEST DEFENSE
Rashan Gary - 83.2
Kingsley Enagbare - 80.9
Edgerrin Cooper - 80.8
Xavier McKinney - 72.1
Javon Bullard - 69.0

WORST DEFENSE
Colby Wooden - 41.3
Keisean Nixon - 42.7 (shocked it wasn't in the 30s...)
Quay Walker - 56.3
Barryn Sorrell - 57.9
Micah Parsons - 58.6

 

[Curly Calhoun]

As always 10 snap minimums to be here on the lists:

BEST OFFENSE
Tucker Kraft - 93.6
Jordan Morgan - 83.5
Jordan Love - 81.2
Zach Tom - 80.9
Christian Watson - 79.6
(above 70s - Heath 78.0 | Doubs 75.2 | Savion 72.5)

WORST OFFENSE
Josh Jacobs - 45.2 (very VERY clear he isn't healthy)
Emanuel Wilson - 45.4 (ran well but he SUCKS at pass pro sometimes and did this night)
Luke Musgrave - 47.2
Matthew Golden - 52.1
John Fitzpatrick - 56.5

BEST DEFENSE
Rashan Gary - 83.2
Kingsley Enagbare - 80.9
Edgerrin Cooper - 80.8
Xavier McKinney - 72.1
Javon Bullard - 69.0

WORST DEFENSE
Colby Wooden - 41.3
Keisean Nixon - 42.7 (shocked it wasn't in the 30s...)
Quay Walker - 56.3
Barryn Sorrell - 57.9
Micah Parsons - 58.6

I enjoy watching both Heath and Watson block downfield. Tucker Kraft might want to take them out to dinner sometime; his YAC has benefitted from their work ethic.

 

[shockerx]

Shout out to Heath, he is a good role player, just never hurts you. I wonder if he could just safely field a punt. That would put us in plus territory.

 

[gopkrs]

Shout out to Heath, he is a good role player, just never hurts you. I wonder if he could just safely field a punt. That would put us in plus territory.

I have to wonder if Biatchi is trying everyone. Seems like Melton would be good. But I'm sure he's been tried haha.

 

[shockerx]

Guess we should plan to call for fair catch everytime. upside is no holding calls and less chance of a muff. Just let Love cook!

 

[Pugger]

I don't understand the low grade/score for Golden. Did he have a drop? He can't help it if he gets no blocking or Love doesn't throw to him.

I don't get Parsons' either. Whenever he was in there he tormented AR and the Steelers' OL.

 

[mradtke66]

I don't understand the low grade/score for Golden. Did he have a drop?

A very legitimate complaint about PFF is the opacity of their grading. In particular when they just publish the final number, we don't even see the break down of running plays vs. passing plays.

He can't help it if he gets no blocking or Love doesn't throw to him.

Pff won't grade you negatively if you get 0 passes thrown your way--at least the claim they don't. A poorly run route, regardless of being targeted will get you dinged. Pretty sure penalties do too. Missing a block on a running play, etc etc.

Also remember that their numerical scale work exactly like school grading. Or perhaps it does, depending on your point of view. An averagely played game is a 60. A 52 and change grade is vaguely average, not necessarily low.

I don't get Parsons' either. Whenever he was in there he tormented AR and the Steelers' OL.

For defense, I believe they grade run plays, pass rush, and pass coverage as distinct categories. Without seeing those individual breakdowns, I'm guessing, but if he did poorly on some of those, dominating in the others won't offset the total grade. I will say I've seen some weirdly rated grades for individual players here and there.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't understand the low grade/score for Golden. Did he have a drop? He can't help it if he gets no blocking or Love doesn't throw to him.

I don't get Parsons' either. Whenever he was in there he tormented AR and the Steelers' OL.

WRs are not graded solely on stat lines. Even plays where they don’t get targeted are graded…run plays are graded for their blocking…

If stat production is all that mattered grading guys would be redundant

 

[gopkrs]

I don't understand the low grade/score for Golden. Did he have a drop? He can't help it if he gets no blocking or Love doesn't throw to him.

I don't get Parsons' either. Whenever he was in there he tormented AR and the Steelers' OL.

It's very subjective imho

 

[mradtke66]

It's very subjective imho

It is and isn’t at the same time.

Some plays and assignments are obvious. If the defense is in cover 0, the CB aligned across a single receiver almost certainly has that receiver in man. If the receiver puts a move on him 7 yards down field and the pass is completed, the CB lost the rep. Easy.

On offense, enough people can recognize a T-E stunt and can reasonably assign blame if the stunt isn’t passed off correctly. Easy, but slightly harder.

If the QB throws into double or triple coverage on 1st down, that’s a bad play. If one of those two players drops an interception that hits their hands, both of them made a bad play. The QB for gifting the pick, the CB for not making the catch.

Similarly, if the QB avoids the rush, puts a perfect pass over the linebacker and short of the safety for a 25 yard gain…but the WR drops it, the QB will still be positively graded and the WR will take the negative.

Where this gets weird is on running plays. It’s hard to tell if a pulling guard did his job or not. Which hole was he actually aiming for? On defense against a running QB, maybe the strategy is to hit him every time a read option is called to get them out of those play calls, even though the defense might give up 7 YPC early. That’s not a reflection on player, but rather a deliberate choice to hopefully win the war.

Zone defense can also be difficult tell who messed up.

Then the actual grades. Back when they published everything, a single play was on a -2 to +2 scale, with a 0 being you did your job. This caused a lot of nashing of teeth when a player would get a 0 for a game (or around that) and confuse people who assumed a 0 was bad, when it was fine.

The ratings are not perfect, you just have to accept what they are trying to do/measure and understand the limitations. They, PFF clearly call out what they are and are not.

 

[milani]

WRs are not graded solely on stat lines. Even plays where they don’t get targeted are graded…run plays are graded for their blocking…

If stat production is all that mattered grading guys would be redundant

All I know is that having Golden on there makes the defenses account for him in addition to Doubs, Heath, Kraft, and now Watson. Throw in Wicks and Love has some playmakers.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

All I know is that having Golden on there makes the defenses account for him in addition to Doubs, Heath, Kraft, and now Watson. Throw in Wicks and Love has some playmakers.

Is that necessarily true though? Golden was REALLY fast in his undies but even his college HC was quoted as saying he was surprised by that 40 time and that he thought Golden was more of a 4.4 guy (still really fast but not 4.2). Golden has very good hands and I think he could turn into a good receiver in time but I don't see it happening in year (something that many analysts who actually payed attention to his lack of college production agree with as well).

 

[milani]

Is that necessarily true though? Golden was REALLY fast in his undies but even his college HC was quoted as saying he was surprised by that 40 time and that he thought Golden was more of a 4.4 guy (still really fast but not 4.2). Golden has very good hands and I think he could turn into a good receiver in time but I don't see it happening in year (something that many analysts who actually payed attention to his lack of college production agree with as well).

They are nuts. His ability to stretch the field and find the open space has been his strength so far. Love has been very thankful for him. Some big catches versus the Bengals standout. No, he is not a tall receiver with Randy Moss wingspan. But he is likely the fastest player on the team. And with Watson coming back from the ACL I doubt he would want to race Golden.

 

[tynimiller]

Is that necessarily true though? Golden was REALLY fast in his undies but even his college HC was quoted as saying he was surprised by that 40 time and that he thought Golden was more of a 4.4 guy (still really fast but not 4.2). Golden has very good hands and I think he could turn into a good receiver in time but I don't see it happening in year (something that many analysts who actually payed attention to his lack of college production agree with as well).

I think in pads and in a route if you had him and Watson run it live in game Watson wins.

Now of course I want to wait and see if Watson now matches Watson before...but in game speed, I've not seen anything where a G that compares to Watson yet.

 

[Magooch]

I'm just curious with regards to PFF grades, I have never really dug in to much to how they arrive at their final numbers....I know that about 60 is considered "average" but is that also more or less their "starting point"?

Point of comparison... there are a lot of similar stats sites who offer similar "performance grades" in soccer on a match by match basis. But most of those are largely additive/subtractive. They all have their own twists and particular algorithms and whatnot, but broadly speaking you'll start a match with roughly a 6/10 rating. Positive actions throughout a match will push that upwards, negatives will ding it downwards.

now as I understand it I DO think PFF uses a similar system, they grade every player for every play with a -2 to +2 range and a neutral 0 as the "most likely" or "expected" outcome. But what is not clear to me is where their scoring's starting point is. If a player starts at a 60 and does everything he is "expected" to do, he finishes with a 60 give or take a few.

Anyhow, the tricky thing you have to keep in mind too is that while they are time-bound (or in this case snap counts I guess), my understanding is that these scores ARE cumulative...and so in that sense if you only play 10 snaps, even if all 10 are perfectly played, "above expectation" snaps, the best you could do is add +20 to your grading (and again, starting from...?) - on the flip side if you absolutely flop for 10 snaps the worst it does is -20. But as a secondary factor of this, if you don't get a ton of snaps, then you just don't get a ton of opportunity to help (or hurt) your score.

So, not sure where I was really going with that, but it's something to keep in mind at least.

If you start at zero and work your way up for instance...Kraft played 58 snaps. That means he earned on average +1.6 PFF "points" per snap he played. Which is basically to say every snap worked out to being WELL above average. By the same measure hypothetically speaking if you started at a baseline score of 60, it would be a per snap score of about +0.58

 

[RRyder]

They are nuts. His ability to stretch the field and find the open space has been his strength so far. Love has been very thankful for him. Some big catches versus the Bengals standout. No, he is not a tall receiver with Randy Moss wingspan. But he is likely the fastest player on the team. And with Watson coming back from the ACL I doubt he would want to race Golden.

No he isnt. Im not even sure how you can argue hes faster then Watson after seeing him Sunday night but whatever

Golden best comp imo is Greg Jennings.

Sure hes fast enough to get deep, especially with good route running, but that's not where hes going to his damage

And for clarification if he turns into prime Greg Jennings that's an absolute win

 

[tynimiller]

No he isnt. Im not even sure how you can argue hes faster then Watson after seeing him Sunday night but whatever

Golden best comp imo is Greg Jennings.

Sure hes fast enough to get deep, especially with good route running, but that's not where hes going to his damage

And for clarification if he turns into prime Greg Jennings that's an absolute win

Yup Jennings has always been my GB player comp for Golden and we don't have a historical guy IMO like Watson so DK Metcalf is the top shelf comp folks recognize for him.

If we get a Jennings' out of Golden that is an absolute HR!

 

[gopkrs]

Watson is very fast but doesn't get open only on speed. He seems to know when to break. And I am happy with Golden so far. Looking forward to the next few years with him and hopefully beyond. btw nice of Gute to sign Watson to that additional year.

 

[tynimiller]

Watson is very fast but doesn't get open only on speed. He seems to know when to break. And I am happy with Golden so far. Looking forward to the next few years with him and hopefully beyond. btw nice of Gute to sign Watson to that additional year.

Watsons' route advancement from rookie year to now is awesome growth really.

 

[gopkrs]

Watsons' route advancement from rookie year to now is awesome growth really.

And his catching of the ball

 

[tynimiller]

And his catching of the ball

That is massively overblown due to that first ball to him.

 

[gopkrs]

That is massively overblown due to that first ball to him.

Maybe. I'm not so sure. But he certainly catches the ball well now. I do hate to think of him as a number 1 though. I like the way we can spread it around. And him being a big chunk of the whole enchilada

 

[milani]

Watsons' route advancement from rookie year to now is awesome growth really.

Watson has been on the roster since Rodgers. We should hope he advances. Despite his speed when healthy he has the time now to show that he does not trip over his own feet, know when to step out of bounds, protect the football when contact is inevitable, and when to reverse field and when to avoid it.