Packers will have over $17 million post Draft, how to use it?

[Deleted member 6794]

He's not an exception so much as what really good guards will get now if they hit FA with the new, higher cap ceiling.

But my point is that when you compare comparable iOL and SS that hit the market, the former are consistently getting more money. That is due to scarcity and level of importance, which is driving value. I think the NFL is telling us how they stack these positions up with their $$$.

The numbers don't support your take on it though. On average strong safeties ($2.7 million) will count more against the cap than guards ($2.2M) and centers ($2.0M) in 2017.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

I'm talking about what they get paid once they hit FA and their market value is set.

Guards have been coming in consistently higher.

For example, the Titans brought in Johnathan Cyprien for 4 years, 25M while the Broncos paid 4/36 for Ronald Leary.

Tony Jefferson, the premier SS of this last FA class, got a very healthy 4/34 from the Ravens. Kevin Zeitler, however, did significantly better at 5/60.

The Titans are doing things in a way that I imagine TT would do if he didn't all but ignore the need to plug holes via FA. Super team friendly contracts on guys who provide a lot of bang for the buck (Rishard Matthews, Ben Jones, Cyprien, not to mention we really could have used and afforded Logan Ryan)

 

[Ogsponge]

It's the most important and thus in 12 years, they've invested three mid round picks and a one veteran contract in the position? That hardly adds up to me.

Burnett is very good at what he does, but as he ages and becomes less capable in coverage his value will diminish. I would be fine with bringing him back if the price is right, but he shouldn't be the priority.

My point was mainly that after the loss of Collins and Woodson this defense was as bad as it has ever been. All I am saying is that in DC's scheme a knowledgeable and capable strong safety is extremely valuable

 

[Dantés]

The numbers don't support your take on it though. On average strong safeties ($2.7 million) will count more against the cap than guards ($2.2M) and centers ($2.0M) in 2017.

The total numbers aren't going to tell us how the NFL values these positions as rookie deals are slotted. FA's demonstrate the value.

Why wouldn't we look at what teams are choosing to pay comparable players at these positions when they are free to do so?

 

[PikeBadger]

To be fair, at that point Taylor was considered an unproven backup. I admit being wrong about Thompson overpaying for him though.

To the fans yes. Apparently people on the inside felt he was close to being ready to start.

 

[Dantés]

My point was mainly that after the loss of Collins and Woodson this defense was as bad as it has ever been. All I am saying is that in DC's scheme a knowledgeable and capable strong safety is extremely valuable

Collins and Woodson were much more adept in coverage than Burnett. That's a different position.

It's hard to label because so many teams use their safeties interchangeably, but safeties that can cover in single high looks are of high value, and those who cannot are much lower on my list. Collins and Woodson could both cover up on the back end. Burnett needs to play much closer to the LOS.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The total numbers aren't going to tell us how the NFL values these positions as rookie deals are slotted. FA's demonstrate the value.

Why wouldn't we look at what teams are choosing to pay comparable players at these positions when they are free to do so?

Feel free to conduct a thorough analysis of it. Listing four examples doesn't present a meaningful sample size though.

To the fans yes. Apparently people on the inside felt he was close to being ready to start.

It's true that Taylor was an unproven backup at the time the Packers signed him to a contract though. As mentioned above Thompson was right about him being able to turn into a decent starter though.

 

[Dantés]

Feel free to conduct a thorough analysis of it. Listing four examples doesn't present a meaningful sample size though.



It's true that Taylor was an unproven backup at the time the Packers signed him to a contract though. As mentioned above Thompson was right about him being able to turn into a decent starter though.

It's public record Captain.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It's public record Captain.

Well, then posting a link to it shouldn't be a difficult assignment.

 

[Dantés]

Well, then posting a link to it shouldn't be a difficult assignment.

Sorry, I mean the contract numbers are public record. I can collect more examples if you want as I have time, but what I'm saying is that this is a pretty self evident point in recent offseasons.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Sorry, I mean the contract numbers are public record. I can collect more examples if you want as I have time, but what I'm saying is that this is a pretty self evident point in recent offseasons.

Well, I took a look at the numbers from this offseason. Free agents that signed after the start of the new league year averaged approximately the same annual salary at those positions as interior offensive linemen received $5.15 million per season while strong safeties got $5.1 million.

 

[Dantés]

2017 Strong Safeties:

• Tony Jefferson: 4/34
• Barry Church: 4/26
• Johnathan Cyprien: 4/25
• Jahleel Addae: 4/22.5

2017 iOL:

• Kevin Zeitler: 5/60
• T.J. Lang: 3/28.5
• Ronald Leary: 4/36
• Larry Warford: 4/34

2016 Strong Safeties:

• George Iloka: 5/30
• Andrew Sendejo: 4/16
• Isa Abdul-Quddes: 3/12.75

2016 iOL:

• Kelechi Osemele: 5/58.5
• Alex Mack: 5/45
• Brandon Brooks: 5/40
• Jeff Allen: 4/28
• Alex Boone: 5/26.8

2015 Strong Safeties:

• Da'Norris Searcy: 4/23.75
• Nate Allen: 4/23
• Marcus Gilchrist: 4/22
• Tyvon Branch: 1/2

2015 iOL:

• Rodney Hudson: 5/44.5
• Mike Iupati: 5/40
• Orlando Franklin: 5/35.5
• Clint Boling: 5/26

I think the trend is pretty clear. Now if you can cover on the back end in single high, that's a different story for safeties. "Strong" and "Free" can be a bit murky semantically, but when I talk about a strong safety, I'm talking about a guy who can't play single high and needs to be closer to the LOS. There are some players that occasionally get listed as SS who can really cover on the back end (e.g. Eric Weddle).

But recent FA classes have pretty well demonstrated that NFL teams value interior OL quite a bit more than "strong" safeties.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

2017 Strong Safeties:

• Tony Jefferson: 4/34
• Barry Church: 4/26
• Johnathan Cyprien: 4/25
• Jahleel Addae: 4/22.5

2017 iOL:

• Kevin Zeitler: 5/60
• T.J. Lang: 3/28.5
• Ronald Leary: 4/36
• Larry Warford: 4/34

2016 Strong Safeties:

• George Iloka: 5/30
• Andrew Sendejo: 4/16
• Isa Abdul-Quddes: 3/12.75

2016 iOL:

• Kelechi Osemele: 5/58.5
• Alex Mack: 5/45
• Brandon Brooks: 5/40
• Jeff Allen: 4/28
• Alex Boone: 5/26.8

2015 Strong Safeties:

• Da'Norris Searcy: 4/23.75
• Nate Allen: 4/23
• Marcus Gilchrist: 4/22
• Tyvon Branch: 1/2

2015 iOL:

• Rodney Hudson: 5/44.5
• Mike Iupati: 5/40
• Orlando Franklin: 5/35.5
• Clint Boling: 5/26

I think the trend is pretty clear. Now if you can cover on the back end in single high, that's a different story for safeties. "Strong" and "Free" can be a bit murky semantically, but when I talk about a strong safety, I'm talking about a guy who can't play single high and needs to be closer to the LOS. There are some players that occasionally get listed as SS who can really cover on the back end (e.g. Eric Weddle).

But recent FA classes have pretty well demonstrated that NFL teams value interior OL quite a bit more than "strong" safeties.

Once again, you listing several examples doesn't result in a fair evaluation, especially if you keep the highest paid strong safety in Reshad Jones off the list who signed a four year, $48 million extension in March.

In my opinion the average salary of all players at the position is a better indicator of the overall value.

 

[Dantés]

Once again, you listing several examples doesn't result in a fair evaluation, especially if you keep the highest paid strong safety in Reshad Jones off the list who signed a four year, $48 million extension in March.

In my opinion the average salary of all players at the position is a better indicator of the overall value.

I didn't see him on the lists I was working from. Jones can cover in single high though. Add him if you like. He doesn't change much.

If you don't see the trend, it's whatever. I think it's pretty clear, but it's not all that important. I do think it's a pretty fair evaluation to look at what the most coveted players at each position are getting during FA period and compare them.

But in any case, I value interior offensive line over strong safety and I think the league does too. If you don't buy it, we can just watch it continuing to unfold as offseasons come and go.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I didn't see him on the lists I was working from. Jones can cover in single high though. Add him if you like. He doesn't change much.

If you don't see the trend, it's whatever. I think it's pretty clear, but it's not all that important. I do think it's a pretty fair evaluation to look at what the most coveted players at each position are getting during FA period and compare them.

But in any case, I value interior offensive line over strong safety and I think the league does too. If you don't buy it, we can just watch it continuing to unfold as offseasons come and go.

FWIW the annual average salary of the starters at strong safety ($2.75 million) last season was similar to the number of guards ($2.72 million) and a bit higher than centers ($2.39 million).

I agree it isn't that important though and we will figure out what the Packers think about it by next offseason.

 

[Dantés]

FWIW the annual average salary of the starters at strong safety ($2.75 million) last season was similar to the number of guards ($2.72 million) and a bit higher than centers ($2.39 million).

I agree it isn't that important though and we will figure out what the Packers think about it by next offseason.

Even if they keep one or both of the OL over Burnett, we might not really know from that one example. They could choose to let the latter player walk because of his age and/or mileage. TT is good about keeping key players on 2nd contracts, but he is pretty stingy with a 3rd. Thought I could see Lane Taylor being an exception if he has another decent season, just because his first extension was so short.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

While it's possible Brice might turn into a decent player the Packers currently don't have any depth at safety behind Burnett and Clinton-Dix. Therefore I would prefer to re-sign both of them.



I believe the safety position should be valued above the interior of the offensive line. While I agree that it is more essential for the Packers to retain Clinton-Dix and Adams ahead of Burnett I was only referring to the importance of the three players you listed in a previous post.

 

[Dantés]

One guy I really like as a potential value in this class is Delano Hill of Michigan. He could be a good investment in the 4th/5th round to provide depth for a season and be there in case of a Burnett departure. He's a pretty good athlete and was a better pure football player than Jabrill Peppers. Rayshawn Jenkins from Miami is another one to watch.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

TT is good about keeping key players on 2nd contracts, but he is pretty stingy with a 3rd.

I'm not so sure I would agree with that, at least with the last 3 2nd contract draft classes (2011, 2012 and 2013). TT retained what....4 out of 29 of them (Cobb, Daniels, Perry and Bahk) and reobtained House? That also might be a reflection on TT's draft skills and/or the Packers ability to develop skills as well.

 

[Dantés]

I'm not so sure I would agree with that, at least with the last 3 2nd contract draft classes (2011, 2012 and 2013). TT retained what....4 out of 29 of them (Cobb, Daniels, Perry and Bahk) and reobtained House? That also might be a reflection on TT's draft skills and/or the Packers ability to develop skills as well.

This last class FA threw a bit of a wrench in his record, but he has a long history of keeping his good players on 2nd contracts. The only good starter to walk after the rookie deal was up before this last offseason was Casey Hayward. Parenthetically, it would seem that he doesn't consider that slot corner role to be worth paying a hefty contract for (had they only seen Hayward's potential on the outside...).

I wouldn't hold the 2013 class against him too harshly. That was an epically bad draft class. Busts up and down that thing. I think any team's class from that season needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Bakhtiari was a homerun. Lacy was good until he got too fat. Tretter was also good, but injury prone, and you can't pay a guy starting center money when he's not your starting center. Hyde was also a nice find, though again it would seem that TT doesn't really value that position highly.

I don't want to seem like I'm making excuses. TT certainly didn't do well. But flip through some other teams' 2013 classes and I think you'll see that it wasn't really a banner year for the draft.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't want to seem like I'm making excuses. TT certainly didn't do well. But flip through some other teams' 2013 classes and I think you'll see that it wasn't really a banner year for the draft.

I also think it is still too early to fully judge the 2013 class (of all teams) to simply write it off for TT and say "it was a bad draft class for everyone". But TT excuses and apologies aside, it's pretty pathetic to me that only 1 of 11 in that draft class are still contributing to The Green Bay Packers. Those last 3 draft classes (2011, 2012, 2013) have given me a lot less confidence in TT being the "great draft guru" that many of us thought he was. Especially, when you factor in the main principle that the Ted Thompson run Packers are supposedly built on.....draft and develop.

 

[Dantés]

I also think it is still too early to fully judge the 2013 class (of all teams) to simply write it off for TT and say "it was a bad draft class for everyone". But TT excuses and apologies aside, it's pretty pathetic to me that only 1 of 11 in that draft class are still contributing to The Green Bay Packers. Those last 3 draft classes (2011, 2012, 2013) have given me a lot less confidence in TT being as great of a draft guru as most of us thought he was. Especially, when you factor in the main principle that the Ted Thompson run Packers are supposedly built on.....draft and develop.

He certainly needs to do better if his model is going to work. Hopefully that's a low water mark for him. Though if it is his low point and we come away with Bakhtiari, Perry, Daniels, and Cobb I think that's still doing pretty well.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

He certainly needs to do better if his model is going to work. Hopefully that's a low water mark for him. Though if it is his low point and we come away with Bakhtiari, Perry, Daniels, and Cobb I think that's still doing pretty well.

Maybe, but what I think is also suffering because of it, is depth. Way too much reliance on inexperienced and not so talented guys, especially once injuries began to set in. But that will get someone to post "every team suffers injuries and have to rely on younger guys". Maybe, I just haven't been that impressed by many of our younger guys the last few years.

 

[Dantés]

Maybe, but what I think is also suffering because of it, is depth. Way too much reliance on inexperienced and not so talented guys, especially once injuries began to set in. But that will get someone to post "every team suffers injuries and have to rely on younger guys". Maybe, I just haven't been that impressed by many of our younger guys the last few years.

Depth certainly is affected. In no way am I saying that the returns on that stretch are acceptable if that is the new normal. I'm just saying that most teams' "dry spells" don't yield great players at LT, EDGE, and DL.

 

[HardRightEdge]

FWIW the annual average salary of the starters at strong safety ($2.75 million) last season was similar to the number of guards ($2.72 million) and a bit higher than centers ($2.39 million).

I agree it isn't that important though and we will figure out what the Packers think about it by next offseason.

It may be sooner than next offseason.