Packers Trade Candidates

[OldSchool101]

Be happy to! From best to sixth: Buffalo, Bucs, Baltimore, KC, Pitt, Cincinnati. Teams that draft well tend to perform well on the field. The draft isn’t the only thing though, coaching matters, free agency matters, and injuries matter. I realize you’re attempting to be snide with your comments so I’ll point out that I’m doing my best to back up my opinion with actual reasons. I’m perfectly willing to change my mind if someone gave me some factual data to the contrary. So far I’ve seen nothing from you to back up your opinion that he’s terrific at drafting elite players. Maybe you’ll give me your list of elite players he’s drafted in his time here? Cause I’d put the list at Alexander, potentially Love, Zach Tom (why does it feel like you have to use an olineman’s full name?) and (hopefully) Cooper.

Thank you for those. That’s a good list.

I’ll just offer that it obviously doesn’t have as much impact as we think if the youngest team in the NFL 2 years Running is being matched up with SF49ers and Eagles in the Postseason (who both went to the SB) and is battling them with a young 1st and 2nd year Starter at QB who played just 2.5 seasons as a starter at Utah State.
You don’t go Postseason bound consecutive seasons with a bunch of 1st, 2nd and 3rd year players unless you draft well or unless you are just the luckiest team to ever set field.

I will offer an answer to your question (again) Alexander imo was Elite and that pick was brilliant because it got us Savage using a 3rd Rounder from the previous season.

So
2018 was 1 Elite (JA)
2019 was 2-near Elite (Gary/Elgton)
2020 was 1-near Elite (Love) with chance to become Elite.
2021 Missed imo.
2022 was 1 Elite (Zach Tom)
2023 was 2 near-Elite (Reed, Kraft)
2024 Imo 1 near-Elite (with chance to flip to Elite;Cooper)
2025 nobody can rate this class yet for any team imo.
In totality this doesn’t sound bottom feeder like.

@Sunshinepacker now I’ve answered your question. You never answered my 1st question??…and this is Super important if we’re grading production.

TWO of our Round 1 selections (Jordan Love and Jordan Morgan) in that ranking missed a combined
4 seasons (less 2 starts). Did any of that list of top drafting teams above have 4 seasons of near ZERO production from 1st Rounders?
because if they did? Then it implies they submitted Jordan Loves Exam with 1 of 51 Questions answered
(his 1st K.C. Start, which does not accurately reflect his value) and the remainder incomplete.

 

[tynimiller]

Some only see drafts through the singular lens of did it provide an elite player or not - and by that they judge success or failure.

Those types of people will never hold seats inside of scouting departments.

 

[Voyageur]

Some only see drafts through the singular lens of did it provide an elite player or not - and by that they judge success or failure.

Those types of people will never hold seats inside of scouting departments.

Amen! The truth proof in the pudding is found within the season records year after year. You don't consistently win a lot of games if you don't draft well. The glitz players are fun to watch but no matter how good they are, it takes 11 guys out there on every play and they all contribute at one level or another. The better each one performs, the more games the team wins.

Adding to this, because of injuries, the players who are at the second level are equally important because they need to step up and play well enough in spurts to insure that the team still has the best opportunity possible to win games.

Give me a draft where nearly everyone on the list ends up contributing to success over that prima donna who someone gets early in the draft every time.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Some only see drafts through the singular lens of did it provide an elite player or not - and by that they judge success or failure.

Those types of people will never hold seats inside of scouting departments.

Some fans are just content with good and never strive for elite. I'm perfectly happy when Gute drafts good to very good players...just think he should be honestly judged on his ability to find elite players as well.

 

[tynimiller]

Some fans are just content with good and never strive for elite. I'm perfectly happy when Gute drafts good to very good players...just think he should be honestly judged on his ability to find elite players as well.

No issue here, but don't overreact in judgement purely because he didn't draft the next clear Canton candidate...those are INSANELY rare to find and if easy to do so the draft would be BORING after one or two picks and teams would Herschel Walker level type trade to get up there to get the obvious HOFer.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Thank you for those. That’s a good list.

I’ll just offer that it obviously doesn’t have as much impact as we think if the youngest team in the NFL 2 years Running is being matched up with SF49ers and Eagles in the Postseason (who both went to the SB) and is battling them with a young 1st and 2nd year Starter at QB who played just 2.5 seasons as a starter at Utah State.
You don’t go Postseason bound consecutive seasons with a bunch of 1st, 2nd and 3rd year players unless you draft well or unless you are just the luckiest team to ever set field.

I will offer an answer to your question (again) Alexander imo was Elite and that pick was brilliant because it got us Savage using a 3rd Rounder from the previous season.

So
2018 was 1 Elite (JA)
2019 was 2-near Elite (Gary/Elgton)
2020 was 1-near Elite (Love) with chance to become Elite.
2021 Missed imo.
2022 was 1 Elite (Zach Tom)
2023 was 2 near-Elite (Reed, Kraft)
2024 Imo 1 near-Elite (with chance to flip to Elite;Cooper)
2025 nobody can rate this class yet for any team imo.
In totality this doesn’t sound bottom feeder like.

@Sunshinepacker now I’ve answered your question. You never answered my 1st question??…and this is Super important if we’re grading production.

TWO of our Round 1 selections (Jordan Love and Jordan Morgan) in that ranking missed a combined
4 seasons (less 2 starts). Did any of that list of top drafting teams above have 4 seasons of near ZERO production from 1st Rounders?
because if they did? Then it implies they submitted Jordan Loves Exam with 1 of 51 Questions answered
(his 1st K.C. Start, which does not accurately reflect his value) and the remainder incomplete.

You've listed 2 elite players drafted over 6 seasons ending in 2023. I think the best drafting GM's in the league have a higher hit rate on finding impact players than that. As for Jordan Love, he did not help the team win for his first two seasons in the league, that needs to be accounted for doesn't it? By that logic, if LVN hadn't played much in his first two seasons he wouldn't be considered a disappointment thus far? Why is drafting backups with first round picks considered a plus?

You ignore that coaching a huge factor in football. MLF is one of the 5 best coaches in the NFL and his ability to run a truly amazing offensive scheme helps out the offensive players like no system outside of San Fran or LA.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

No issue here, but don't overreact in judgement purely because he didn't draft the next clear Canton candidate...those are INSANELY rare to find and if easy to do so the draft would be BORING after one or two picks and teams would Herschel Walker level type trade to get up there to get the obvious HOFer.

I'm not, I just belive that teams that consistently draft great players who contribute early in their careers have a marked advantage in winning a Super Bowl. The Eagles won the Super Bowl last season on the back of an elite defense that featured high level play from two rookies. Or the 2023 Chiefs who found their best receiver with pick 55 that season. Or the 2022 Chiefs who fielded an elite defense helped in no small part by the play of the rookie CB they took at pick 21. The 2021 Rams don't believe in having draft picks so let's just call them the black sheep of this exercise. Or the 2020 Bucs who drafted one of the best safeties in the league at pick 45. I just want the Packers to get that kind of instant help that Super Bowl winners tend to get.

 

[Voyageur]

I'm not, I just belive that teams that consistently draft great players who contribute early in their careers have a marked advantage in winning a Super Bowl. The Eagles won the Super Bowl last season on the back of an elite defense that featured high level play from two rookies. Or the 2023 Chiefs who found their best receiver with pick 55 that season. Or the 2022 Chiefs who fielded an elite defense helped in no small part by the play of the rookie CB they took at pick 21. The 2021 Rams don't believe in having draft picks so let's just call them the black sheep of this exercise. Or the 2020 Bucs who drafted one of the best safeties in the league at pick 45. I just want the Packers to get that kind of instant help that Super Bowl winners tend to get.

Teams that consistently draft great players pick early in the draft and anyone past #16 who is a top player is usually someone who slipped under the wire and a lot of teams missed them. Pointing at this issue with the Packers when they draft as late as they do isn't logical.

If you want to do some cherry picking, take a look at where the Packers drafted Love, thanks to Gute and then compare all the picks over all the ensuing years where teams draft a QB earlier and flubbed with it. Just that pick alone is one that has allowed the Packers to be a highly productive team every year.

 

[tynimiller]

Apologies much easier to respond in line, and I cannot stress how much I appreciate the dialogue:

You've listed 2 elite players drafted over 6 seasons ending in 2023. I think the best drafting GM's in the league have a higher hit rate on finding impact players than that.

Hang on...you've used elite as the term often but now say impact players...now perhaps you see those as one in the same so if so sure. However I'd say those two things are vastly different no...if impact players is all one cares about I'd say Gute since 2018 has found:

Impact Guys - Jaire, MVS, Gary, Savage, Jenkins, Runyan Jr, McDuffie, Quay, Wyatt, Watson, Rhyan, Tom, Doubs, Rasheed Walker, Kraft, Reed, Cooper, E Williams, Bullard

Love, Dillon - two impactful guys after some delay
LVN, Wicks, Brooks, Lloyd, Morgan....TBD guys that could be in same category as Love and Dillon someday.

Stokes, Newman, Wicks, LVN - guys that were impactful for sure out the gate but never grew or seem to have stalled potentially as far as proven.

I think the best drafting GM's in the league have a higher hit rate on finding impact players than that.

I looked up the Buccs, Bills and Ravens - the top three teams from that draft article or whatever it was you posted....looked through 2018 to now. The Bills from 18' to now I safely say is the worst of those three and beneath GB for sure. I actually think the Buccs are very similar to Gute and Co. - no clear future HOFers but the best hting is the depth of solid players found beyond day 1. Ravens likely I'd say are the best of the four BUT the crazy thing is it isn't because of their Day1 picks...

Just my thoughts on the review of at least those three and us.

You ignore that coaching a huge factor in football. MLF is one of the 5 best coaches in the NFL and his ability to run a truly amazing offensive scheme helps out the offensive players like no system outside of San Fran or LA.

However aren't we discussing drafting - coaching is of no influence on "grading" or "charting" draft success no? Fully admit perhaps this thought is about something entirely different.

 

[Magooch]

I have mostly been a spectator to this one, but it seems to me like there is a fundamental misunderstanding of the crux of the "argument" here.

On one hand you have folks saying things like "Gute hasn't done well at drafting elite players"

And on the other hand you have folks saying things like "Gute is one of the best drafters in the league, top to bottom he has a very good draft class just about every year"

But the thing for me is...both of these things can be true. I don't think there's necessarily any inherent conflict between those two statements. Gute can be a very good drafter overall, AND at the same time have a less convincing track record when it comes to drafting truly elite players.

I guess at the end of the day it comes down to your school of thought. I'm not a huge baseball guy, but it seems to me like you could liken Gute to a guy who does a great job of getting on base, but might struggle to hit for power. Other GMs might have more strikeouts, but also produce more extra-base hits. Is one inherently better than the other? I guess it just depends.

Ultimately, I *do* think Gutekunst is a very good GM, and is on the whole one of the better drafters in the league. There are not many teams who I would want to trade GMs with (and conversely I think there are MANY teams who would happily swap their GM for ours). It is no small feat to be able to consistently draft guys who are contributing at the rate that Gute's draftees do. For me it is more of a "constructive criticism," if you will - but it feels like if he added just a few more extra-base hits (to continue the baseball analogy ) then that would really push us over the top. That's not saying Gute's a bad drafter or that I want him gone - it's just that last 1%.

And I mean, obviously every team wants their GM to find more elite players, so it sounds kind of silly in some ways. But I guess to me that feels like the last piece to take us from "very good" to "great," know what I mean?

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Teams that consistently draft great players pick early in the draft and anyone past #16 who is a top player is usually someone who slipped under the wire and a lot of teams missed them. Pointing at this issue with the Packers when they draft as late as they do isn't logical.

If you want to do some cherry picking, take a look at where the Packers drafted Love, thanks to Gute and then compare all the picks over all the ensuing years where teams draft a QB earlier and flubbed with it. Just that pick alone is one that has allowed the Packers to be a highly productive team every year.

I think you need to read all the way to the end of what i wrote and look at the teams i cited. This “packers draft late so that’s why they can’t find early contributors” is an excuse that fans need to stop believing.

 

[OldSchool101]

if LVN hadn't played much in his first two seasons he wouldn't be considered a disappointment thus far?

Not if you fully research this Draft selection. He was a Redshirt Sophomore whose biggest negative was he would need time to develop in the NFL. Many evaluators thought he should wait another year, which to me implies he’ll lose an extra year while acclimating to the Pro’s. The Good news imo is that Lukas actually excelled in a 4-Man front at Iowa. Also he’s now entering his 3rd season, which is more in line with several suggestions of him needing time to adapt

As for Jordan Love, he did not help the team win for his first two seasons in the league, that needs to be accounted for doesn't it?

THIS doesn’t even compute to me. I read it 3 times and I’m still puzzled at what you mean here.

Why is drafting backups with first round picks considered a plus?

I think GB has been uber successful at developing players. Especially at QB.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think you need to read all the way to the end of what i wrote and look at the teams i cited. This “packers draft late so that’s why they can’t find early contributors” is an excuse that fans need to stop believing.

You’re like a moving target. I went back through several pages of posts and not 1 poster has made this claim. When this first started you claimed Gute didn’t draft enough Elite players. I think most people understand these principles:
1. Elite players are hard to find. They don’t come around every year across every team.

2. Definitions of “Elite” vary

3. For the players most would agree are “Elite” the earlier you draft the better the probability. Unless someone wants to debate that the bottom of the 7th Round is a more favorable Round to find Elite players than the Top of Round 1 (over dramatizing to make a point).

Now @Sunshinepacker you’re taking it to a level of scolding us for offering the basic observation that the early a player is drafted, the higher his success rate of finding an Elite one. If that bothers you I’m not sure what to say other than we shouldn’t have had to tell you this at such a tender moment of growth.

(Im so sorry I just couldn’t resist! It’s just having fun with you)

 

[Voyageur]

You’re like a moving target. You’ve now changed your argument. When this first started you claimed Gute didn’t draft Elite players. I think most people understand these principles:
1. Elite players are hard to find. They don’t come around every year across every team.

2. Definitions of “Elite” vary

3. For the players most would agree are “Elite” the earlier you draft the better the probability. Unless someone wants to debate that the 7th Round is a more favorable Round to find Elite players than the Top 20 selections or so (over dramatizing to make a point). So let’s just stop pretending that we should somehow subscribe to the belief that the later you draft has no effect on attaining Elite players.

You can't win this argument. He doesn't understand enough about football to discuss it logically.

 

[OldSchool101]

You can't win this argument. He doesn't understand enough about football to discuss it logically.

This is so true.
While on 1 side I agree it would be nice to have lots of Elite players.. I truly don’t it’s imperative. I think if our current group gets some growth across several position groups and the remainder plays similar to last year? We’re tough to beat.

 

[Voyageur]

This is so true.
While on 1 side I agree it would be nice to have lots of Elite players.. I truly don’t it’s imperative. I think if our current group gets some growth across several position groups and the remainder plays similar to last year? We’re tough to beat.

The truly elite players wrap up way too much cap room to really help a team. You lose so much cap to them that it's difficult signing talented players to surround them because you're cap strapped. This is what so many fans don't see. That, coupled with the learning curve in football are two very essential things everyone needs to remember when evaluating talent. We saw that with Rodgers. It was a real cap problem. They also had Bakh eating up a ton of cap room and between the two of them their money really hurt the Packers when it came to entertaining upper-level FAs.

As an example, how I've been saying about time to learn, this will be LVN's year to come out of the closet and if camp is any indication he's ready. Gary took some time as well, and a lot of that has to do with conditioning and understanding their responsibilities out there on the field. There are two types of players who can hurt a team. Those that don't understand their assignments and carry them out, and players who think they need to make every play to be important to the team effort. Both of them can cost you dearly.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

You can't win this argument. He doesn't understand enough about football to discuss it logically.

Whether i understand football as well as you wise souls is irrelevant to evaluating GM performance. I’m just not as content with not winning Super Bowls as some fans. Honestly, i wish i was cause it’s gotta be nicer being happy with finishing 6th than hoping for first.

 

[gopkrs]

Whether i understand football as well as you wise souls is irrelevant to evaluating GM performance. I’m just not as content with not winning Super Bowls as some fans. Honestly, i wish i was cause it’s gotta be nicer being happy with finishing 6th than hoping for first.

I guess you are referring to a number of GMs

 

[tynimiller]

I guess you are referring to a number of GMs

Just because only like 1% of GMs can say they won a SB doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be easy for Gute to simply do right?

(This is sarcasm)

 

[gopkrs]

Just because only like 1% of GMs can say they won a SB doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be easy for Gute to simply do right?

(This is sarcasm)

Yeah. If you're relatively successful and have chance most years. It's not helpful to keep changing GMs. Not that I could fire him but I'm not at that point yet. Especially since he's trying to improve the O line. imho

 

[OldSchool101]

Just because only like 1% of GMs can say they won a SB doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be easy for Gute to simply do right?

(This is sarcasm)

That’s funny right there

I worry about the children of some of our fan base! It’s like the kids can’t ever be good enough.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I guess you are referring to a number of GMs

If we’re evaluating the Packers GM relative to the average NFL GM then we’re doing it wrong. If you want the best, you need to compare to the best, not the guy who’s gonna get fired in two years (fun fact, the average NFL GM has his job for 2.1 years).

 

[Voyageur]

If we’re evaluating the Packers GM relative to the average NFL GM then we’re doing it wrong. If you want the best, you need to compare to the best, not the guy who’s gonna get fired in two years (fun fact, the average NFL GM has his job for 2.1 years).

I think that 2.1-year tenure shows just how idiotic the whole thing is surrounding the hiring and firing of GMs. A new GM with a new coaching staff can't even get the pieces in place to turn the team into a winner for three years. The idea that these guys can come in and usually deal with cap issues, free agents leaving, and aged players and just work "magic" is absurd. The fact that most GMs get a minimum of a 4-year contract, and most get one for 5 should be an indicator for top management that there's a reason they need that time to prove their worth. You needn't wonder why their teams aren't successful.

I believe that merry-go-round actually destroys chemistry on the field and in the locker room. It takes time to just change the culture and slowly get people on board with what you intend doing for the future. It takes time to implement a good scouting system, and coaching staff that can get the best out of players and the best players for the system they intend using on both sides of the ball.

Fortunately, the Packers aren't stupid enough to make that kind of idiotic decisions in a 2-year cycle. It's just pure ignorance in my opinion.

 

[Thirteen Below]

The Micah Parsons rumors are popping out again; a guy on Twitter posted that he has a reliable source informing him that Green Bay has made a substantial offer to Jerruh. The thing is, as crazy as the rumor sounds, apparently this Twitter guy has called an awful lot of things right in the last few months, and scooped everybody on a number of them. Apparently he called the Dolphins trade of Jaylen Ramsey 2 weeks before the fact, the Pickens trade in Pittsburg 5 hours before anyone else had it, the Rodgers signing the day before anyone else knew, and the contract extensions of TJ Watt, Trey Hendrickson, Myles Garret, and Max Crosby.

He calls himself RickyScoops, and whatever his real name is, he certainly seems to have good sources. For the record, the guy is clear that he doesn't think the trade will happen, but he is adamant that the offer has been made.

Honestly, despite this guy's apparent track record, I think he's wrong about this. I just don't believe Gute would do this.

 

[Voyageur]

The Micah Parsons rumors are popping out again; a guy on Twitter posted that he has a reliable source informing him that Green Bay has made a substantial offer to Jerruh. The thing is, as crazy as the rumor sounds, apparently this Twitter guy has called an awful lot of things right in the last few months, and scooped everybody on a number of them. Apparently he called the Dolphins trade of Jaylen Ramsey 2 weeks before the fact, the Pickens trade in Pittsburg 5 hours before anyone else had it, the Rodgers signing the day before anyone else knew, and the contract extensions of TJ Watt, Trey Hendrickson, Myles Garret, and Max Crosby.

He calls himself RickyScoops, and whatever his real name is, he certainly seems to have good sources. For the record, the guy is clear that he doesn't think the trade will happen, but he is adamant that the offer has been made.

Honestly, despite this guy's apparent track record, I think he's wrong about this. I just don't believe Gute would do this.

I don't see it happening either. Although there may have been some preliminary talks about the possibility, I don't believe it went beyond that stage because the price to get him would be significant enough that it would handcuff the Packers when it came to the cap. I can only imagine how bad it would be when it came to us being able to retain players we want to keep but are going to be free agents at the end of this upcoming season.