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Packers to go for 2 more often in 2016?

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by adambr2, Jun 15, 2016.

  1. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. Eli Haugen

    Eli Haugen Cheesehead

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    I love th agressive approach#!!
     
  3. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    We´ve discussed that at length at various points but taking a look at the numbers from last year it might be a good idea to go for two more often. In 2015 kickers made 94.1% of extra point attempts (EP: 0.941) while teams converted 50.5% of all two point conversions (EP: 1.010).

    With that being said I´m still not convinced going for two at Arizona would have been a better move.
     
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  4. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Yeah, I probably should have left out the comment about it being one play too late as I really didn't intend this to be a debate about the decision in Arizona. I'll just say that I think both sides can make a case for the statistical edge depending on what numbers you want to look at, and I think there were too many variables at play for either side to be definitively right or wrong.

    As for whether it's a good long term strategy, I think we should see it more often. I think it's situation dependent with a lot of factors for coaches to consider.

    - Weather. Favorable for kicking?
    - Kicker, struggling from this range?
    - Personnel available. For example if Lacy was out this should be considered.
    - Defense, how strong in red zone?
    - Score of game. If for example the TD put me up 8 points, I'd always opt for the PAT to make it a 2 possession game.
     
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  5. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    I think you left out a very important factor - how much time is left? Taking your 'score of the game', absolutely not question about kicking to get the 9-point lead if we're near the end of the game. If it's the first quarter, I think there's a lot less urgency to get that 2 possession lead.
     
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  6. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Just me, but I'm taking the 2 possession lead regardless of where it is in the game unless there is some really obvious not to try the PAT (kicker hurt, bad enough weather to make even a 33 yard FG challenging, etc.)

    Certainly it means a lot more with 4 minutes left in the game than 4 minutes left in the 1st quarter but I like the advantages of being up by 2 possessions at any point in the game. Even early on, could be a defensive struggle the rest of the way.
     
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  7. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    Fair enough. Just thinking that - go for 2 early, miss, and eventually lose by 1...
     
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  8. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Of course that's a possibility. As well as go for two early, make it and win by one.
     
  9. Croak

    Croak Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    While there have been some pretty exciting win or lose at the last minute kicks, for some reason I still like watching a 2 point conversion better. I don't know why. I just like it.
     
  10. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    The emphasis being on 'early', as was my original contention. In the first quarter, nobody would (should?) be willing to bet if making OR missing a 2 point conversion will be important at the end. In the fourth quarter, a different story.
     
  11. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The point I was trying to make that if overall the two point conversion is the better option, as indicated by the expected point value, teams should go for it more often, even early in a game.
     
  12. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    Can't argue much with that, but I originally was responding to post #4 which listed several other mitigating factors, and (if one is going to pick factors of than expected point value) I (personally) think timing is as important as any.
     
  13. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    My take on the 2 point play is this. Right now, statistically, it seems like a better option. However, I think part of the success of it is the surprise aspect. I doubt teams spend a lot of time defensing it in practice, as well as its pretty sudden to prepare for when a team decides to do it. I think if a team starts running it after every touchdown, the other team will be better prepared to stop what amounts to limited offensive options, given the short field. Basically, as teams decide to run it more and more, there will be more film to prepare the defense.

    But I agree with Admbr2's list of things to consider.
     
  14. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I think you're putting way too much stock into the element of surprise regarding two point conversions, especially after the league moved back the extra point to the 15 yard line. Teams already have a lot of film of opponents running plays from the two as it happens during regular play as well. Yet it's still tough to stop it more than half of the time.

    BTW McCarthy mentioned during one of his press conferences at minicamp that the Packers spend significant time on practicing it.
     
  15. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

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    They may spend a lot of time but it isn't working. 2 point should be reflective of the short yardage offense. In that vein the Packers are one of the worst in the league. http://www.pro-football-reference.c...s&down=4&down=3&yds_to_go_max=3#tm_offense::5
    I don't foresee many 2 point tries unless the game situation leaves no choice (to tie the game late in the 4th quarter or OT.) Hopefully a decent TE and healthy WR and motivated RB could change things. Truth be told, in 2014 the Packers were top 5 in successful conversions.
     
  16. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    It's true the Packers struggled mightily in short yardage situations in 2015. Hopefully getting Nelson back, Lacy being in shape and adding Cook will help the team improve in that department. McCarthy's comments make me believe the coaching staff is thinking about going for two more often.
     
  17. Vrill

    Vrill Cheesehead

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    I'd go for two if I just scored a TD and went up 13-0. I'd never go for two though if I scored making it 6-0. I'd go ahead and PAT it and do 7-0. But try to get 15-0 if I went up by two scores.
     
  18. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I'm not convinced that is a reasonable approach.
     
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  19. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

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    Or ditch all XP kicks and FGs and save 2 roster spots for a 7th and 8th WR. Let a lineman do the kickoffs. Along with that never punt for an extra spot for the ILB corps. [/humorous attempt]
     
  20. sschind

    sschind Cheesehead

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    As I said on another forum, mathematically it may make sense to go for two, unfortunately football is played against football players and not mathematicians.
     
  21. Eli Haugen

    Eli Haugen Cheesehead

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    Most teams go deep in the playoffs on their defense. I remember those years where the offense was second to none, and the defense cost us... Now I feel more comfortable that GB is balanced...
    Point is, I remember the fear. When our defense wasnt good enough to stop the playoff caliber teams out there, it was disheartening. I think the 2 point attack is a back breaker against teams with weak defenses. But when facing elite defenses.... I dont see a reason to risk allowing the opposing defense an opportunity to make an impact play.
     
  22. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    It makes mathematically sense to go for two because of plays that happened on a football field. Therefore teams should attempt more two point conversions.
     
  23. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    How many points do you get for scoring a 2-pointer against football players? :)
     
  24. Vrill

    Vrill Cheesehead

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    I do. Its because if you score the first TD of the game, you simply don't know if you'll get into the endzone again or not. So go up 7-0. Now if the score is 13-7 after that second TD you score, then sure, kick the PAT. But if its 13-0, try for two and get 15-0. It would put a little more pressure on the other team. Besides, 13-0 feels a lot better than 6-0 assuming you fail the 2 point conversion. Does it not?

    In other words, it has more to do with the situation and score at the time the TD happens. You're always wanting the other team to feel pressure and the need to score a TD to catch up. Which can lead to mistakes by them at times.
     
  25. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    A lot of posters here only think about what happens if the two point conversion fails. The Packers would put added pressure on the opponent by successfully going for it being up by only one score though.
     

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