Packers Red Zone Problems

[longtimefan]

My biggest concern in MM's play calling is predictability. A token "show" a couple times per year that fails is not "mixing it up". These things have to be field tested with serious intent in practice and on the field. Showing something when it doesn't matter or fails with consistency accomplishes nothing. Introducing variety, a measure of unpredictability, to get a defense off balance requires some imagination and risk. MM is risk averse in a peculiar way. It doesn't seem that he is because of our predilection for the deep ball. But he's not afraid to go down the field because of Rodgers' relatively high level of success while avoiding picks...the deep ball has the advantage of getting quick points with a low risk component.

I have said this a few times, now it is getting attention..

MM isnt all to blame on the play calling

http://www.billmichaelssports.com/trust-mccarthy-and-rodgers-but-you-can-second-guess/

“It’s 3rd and 1, run the ball. That’s why you drafted Eddie Lacy!” That’s the clamor from fans watching the Green Bay Packers this past Sunday.

It was after the failed attempts that cause the Packers to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns and the cries for McCarthy to utilize Eddie Lacy rose to a crescendo.

“Sure, blame the play caller”, those were the words McCarthy used in his press conference on Monday. The media contingent laughed and went along with McCarthy’s Q & A. What was lost in the back and forth was the fact that McCarthy slipped in, “Aaron Rodgers has the ability to change any play at the line of scrimmage base upon the packages and match-ups the opponent shows.”

Do you get when he’s saying?

When the Packers faced 3rd and 1, Lacy began to run out on to the field only to be waved back by Rodgers who wanted an extra receiver on the field. The play failed and the Packers settled for a Mason Crosby field goal.

Twitter burst into “throttle” mode with fans screaming about McCarthy’s play calling.

It was Rodgers, not McCarthy, that chose to throw the ball.

McCarthy and Rodgers work together on the game plan and conspire with Tom Clements to come up with their “one sheet” of lists to run in every possible circumstance.

So to simply blame McCarthy is erroneous and misguided.

Rodgers and McCarthy have done a lot of great things together and they have the numbers to back it up. Sure you can second guess them, we all do, but trust them…..I do and so should you.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I have said this a few times,.

http://www.billmichaelssports.com/trust-mccarthy-and-rodgers-but-you-can-second-guess/

Well, if anybody didn't believe Rodgers brings with him a big play mentality, that's surely a piece of evidence.

However, Rodgers running guys off the field is not a common event. He must have really liked the defensive personnel Detroit had out there. And when push comes to shove, MM can say "no" even if that means a sideline disagreement ensues. Interesting that MM dished some "accountability" to the press, naming names. That's unusual, but fair. It can get out of hand, though.

 

[FrankRizzo]

I generally agree with your points about going for it on 4th down in certain situations, but I disagree with this one....and I've read Barnwell's stuff. Statistics are statistics. When your team is clawing for points you take 3 of them when you can. Statistically this season you've got a 100% chance of Crosby getting you 3 points and a 1 in 3 chance of Rodgers converting on 4th down. Take the points.

The problem with statistics dictating coaching is that statistics don't take situational factors into account. That's why coaches coach and statisticians (like myself) sit on the sidelines

What you say is true, however: The statistics are only what's already happened. In the past. They are no guarantee of the future. As with stocks, past results are not always indicative of future earnings or losses.

McCarthy and us are not psychic.

He took the points, the cheap 3. We won.
Atlanta has twice ignored 3 points earlier in games, and they came back to haunt them once for sure, and another time perhaps.... in each of the past 2 games. They lost both games despite being aggressive.

It's no science, and statistics change all the time.

Bottom line is this: we better get more efficient in the red zone, and I think we will. If not, we won't last long in January if we make it..... and Jermichael up and outside in there is something we have to take advantage more.

We used to be money in there..... almost automatic TDs.
Bring back a good 2nd TE like Keith Jackson.
Ryan Taylor and all these other TE's are worthless. Quarless maybe...

 

[Bus Cook]

I have said this a few times, now it is getting attention..

MM isnt all to blame on the play calling

http://www.billmichaelssports.com/trust-mccarthy-and-rodgers-but-you-can-second-guess/

AR waived them off because MM was sending in personnel for a double reverse. Who's to say that ARs play call still wasn't better then MM's even though it didn't work. There are PLENTY of MM calls that fail.

 

[longtimefan]

AR waived them off because MM was sending in personnel for a double reverse. Who's to say that ARs play call still wasn't better then MM's even though it didn't work. There are PLENTY of MM calls that fail.

I say lets have have some fun with MM's predictability on play calling...

During the game, people post what they think MM will call in certain situations... Wonder how many will be right?

 

[Bus Cook]

I say lets have have some fun with MM's predictability on play calling...

During the game, people post what they think MM will call in certain situations... Wonder how many will be right?

Ill go first. 4th and one, inside the 30. Missing Crosby.

 

[rodell330]

Theres a couple reason why our red zone offense isn't that great.

1: as someone mentioned before we arn't taking advantage of the mismatches Finley may have aganst smaller defenders. Has he even caught a pass in the red zone this year?

2: We just aint creative enough...MM is so predictable it's sickening at times. It's usually a bootleg or some kind of playaction pass that the defenseis ready for. Mix it up Mike, theres a hundred ways to run a screen, use some wildcat with Cobb, or even use Franklin in the backfield inside the red zone some.. much like the Saints use Sproles.

Fact of the matter is i think Rodgers is so "safe" in the red zone sometimes he's not taking the chances he used to. I havn't seen the back shoulder fade at all this year. Ball security is important inside the red zone but i trust #12 won't make dumb throws.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Theres a couple reason why our red zone offense isn't that great.

1: as someone mentioned before we arn't taking advantage of the mismatches Finley may have aganst smaller defenders. Has he even caught a pass in the red zone this year?

We sucked again in the red zone in Baltimore, with our only TD being the bomb to Jordyzzz.

Maybe now, SADLY, with Cobb and Jones hurt, and J-Mike playing more wideout, perhaps they'll get him some up-highs in the end zone wide. I just hope we can get more chances in the red zone without our 2 great WRs.

 

[7thFloorRA]

Rodgers seems gun shy when it comes to going over the middle this year. Its like he and MM feel the best plays have the most YAC upside and while that might be true for the other 80 yds of the field it doesn't work so much in the red zone.

 

[Forget Favre]

what chapped my **** for play calling was when we had a 3rd down and 3 yards to go, MM calls a fake hand off to the left, rodgers roll out to the right (typically a deep ball play), then Arod throws it long for an incompletion.......???? HELLO !!!! It was 3rd and 3, no need for the home run ball, you need 3 yards.

Long passes on short yards and short or no passes when more yards are needed.
The highest payed and according to some, best player in the NFL and his throwing is not used wisely. And when the throw is right on, the receiver drops it.
There are all these things that don't add up or make sense to the viewer. Including the wonky play calling.
Oh well.
At least we are winning games and starting to look like the NFC North contenders we are used to seeing.

 

[melvin dangerr]

I`m just checking, are we Findley bashing again ??? He isn`t the only one missing balls. Come on guys, give the guy some respect here. He`s improved a lot this season so far. JMHO

AHH yes it is contract renewal time/ but let's see if he is steady

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

AHH yes it is contract renewal time/ but let's see if he is steady

I understand about the contract thing, but he has improved this year, and THAT works for me

 

[Oshkoshpackfan]

Fin dog just serves as a good whoopin beast around these parts. lol Honestly, he has not lived up to the hype that came along with him. People think he is better than what he really is. He does not play up to his potential and he does take plays off, often. I could name a dozen other TE's that I would rather have.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FinlJe00.htm

 

[12theTruth]

We have seen what Finley is capable of in the past and it is alot. I feel just by his presence alone is helping the other WR's and in many cases dragging a good linebacker or safety out of the box in run support. for Lacy and company.

Finley is someone the defense has to account for. We have seen the drop-off at TE when it comes to the pass receiving element. I hope for more catches, yards, and TD's just like everyone else but not everything a player provides the offense always shows up on the stat sheet.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Fin dog just serves as a good whoopin beast around these parts. lol Honestly, he has not lived up to the hype that came along with him. People think he is better than what he really is. He does not play up to his potential and he does take plays off, often. I could name a dozen other TE's that I would rather have.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FinlJe00.htm

Ok, I'll bite. Please let me know which other dozen tight ends there are that would allow our coaches to play them at WR in the event of a Cobb injury? And as much as people dislike Finley, when given a similar number of targets as Vernon Davis, Finley has been just as good in 2011 and better in 2012.

 

[Oshkoshpackfan]

Ok, I'll bite. Please let me know which other dozen tight ends there are that would allow our coaches to play them at WR in the event of a Cobb injury? And as much as people dislike Finley, when given a similar number of targets as Vernon Davis, Finley has been just as good in 2011 and better in 2012.

lol...It's not the they would be "allowed" to play WR, it is a "must" right now out of nessessity and desperation. Finley knows routes better than the practice squad guys and thus fits the bill better. As far as other TE's that do a better job.....lol....do I really need to pop off a list? C'mon man, that is a no-brainer. If you want me to I will, but this tooooo easy.

TE's that could be used as a WR or are more of a WR type roll already or that I would take hands down over finley:

Jared cook
Antonio Gates
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Martellus bennett
Vernon Davis
Brandon Pettigrew
Owen Danials
Jason Whitten (pure amount of catches alone)
Tony Gonzalez
Jordan Cameron ( no drops so far this season )
Julius Thomas

Can't argue that list, as they all are or have been performing better and or way above J. fin's level.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

lol...It's not the they would be "allowed" to play WR, it is a "must" right now out of nessessity and desperation. Finley knows routes better than the practice squad guys and thus fits the bill better. As far as other TE's that do a better job.....lol....do I really need to pop off a list? C'mon man, that is a no-brainer. If you want me to I will, but this tooooo easy.

TE's that could be used as a WR or are more of a WR type roll already or that I would take hands down over finley:

Jared cook
Antonio Gates
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Martellus bennett
Vernon Davis
Brandon Pettigrew
Owen Danials
Jason Whitten (pure amount of catches alone)
Tony Gonzalez
Jordan Cameron ( no drops so far this season )
Julius Thomas

Can't argue that list, as they all are or have been performing better and or way above J. fin's level.

Already pointed out that when given similar targets Finley is as good as Davis (receiving, not sure at run blocking). Jared Cook has had ONE decent year at TE, in 2011; keep in mind that Tennessee has't exactly had a wealth of other options at receiver so why hasn't Cook done better?

Antonio Gates - 5-7 years ago? Yeah. Now? Heck no. The guy is a walking injury waiting to happen.

Bennett - Here's where people's familiarity with Finley lead them to undervalue Finley relative to others. In Bennett's "break out" year with the Giants he had 90 targets (two more than Finley) but Bennet ended the season with 41 yards fewer than Finley. Bennett has never had another season with more than 283 yards. Finley averages 9.9 YAC/reception while Bennett averages 5.9

Owen Daniels - Really? You think he could play WR? The guy averages 3.3 YAC/rec this year. He's also 30, four years older than Finley.

Witten - he's better than Finley, I'll say that right now. However, he's not as much better as his receptions make him look. Witten commonly gets over 120 targets each year. Of course he'll have more catches.

Brandon Pettigrew?? Now your dislike of Finley is showing. Pettigrew annually gets 20% MORE targets than Finley and still ends up with fewer yards (e.g., 2011, Pettigrew has 123 targets to Finley's 93 but Pettigrew ends the season with 10 more yards).

Julius Thomas - Right now he looks better. Not sure how much of that is targets and his role in the offense.

Seems like I managed to argue against some of these guys.

 

[Oshkoshpackfan]

You might have a reading comprehension issue, as you clearly DID NOT "read" what I wrote.

"TE's that could be used as a WR or are more of a WR type roll already or that I would take hands down over finley"

That is exactly what I said.

Also, you need to get your info corrected. Cook is playing like a new man this year, and plays for St. Louis Rams, so your info about the Tenn. titans holds no water.

Take a look at what Gates is doing this year before saying "5-7 YEARS AGO" He is playing well above his average thus far and is already close to his total yardage from last season. Again, your statement holds no water

Bennett is averageing 11.3 YPC so far this year for the Bears. His stats are on par or slightly above Finleys. Debunked again.

Owen Daniels, yes really. He is on par with finley as far as stats go, but has he had his QB in the right frame of mind throwing the ball?, No and his current lack of production is relevant to his QB being a ****. Put him on the packers with Arod tossing him the pigskin and he would have a career year.

Pettigrew !!!, Yes. You don't see him make the drops Fin does

I am not a finley "basher" for no reason. He has not produced like he was expected to, he has brought drama to a team that does not need it, he is getting paid DAMN GOOD, and people just have this misconception about him that he is some sort of Gods gift TE. In reality, he is not. I just don't drink the Finley kool-aid like many others. If he does well in a game, so be it, I am happy for him....but more often than not I am cursing that big knucklehead. I just happen to see through the finley fog, that is all.

For the limited role that Tom Crabtree played in the offense while he was here, he was more explosive when he touched the ball. He made damn sure that every chance he got to touch the ball, he played like it was his last. The man was a underrated playmaker. He had such minor play time that people kinda just wrote him off as a gimmick type player, but he was an asset that we should not have let go.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

You might have a reading comprehension issue, as you clearly DID NOT "read" what I wrote.

"TE's that could be used as a WR or are more of a WR type roll already or that I would take hands down over finley"

That is exactly what I said.

Also, you need to get your info corrected. Cook is playing like a new man this year, and plays for St. Louis Rams, so your info about the Tenn. titans holds no water.

Take a look at what Gates is doing this year before saying "5-7 YEARS AGO" He is playing well above his average thus far and is already close to his total yardage from last season. Again, your statement holds no water

Bennett is averageing 11.3 YPC so far this year for the Bears. His stats are on par or slightly above Finleys. Debunked again.

Owen Daniels, yes really. He is on par with finley as far as stats go, but has he had his QB in the right frame of mind throwing the ball?, No and his current lack of production is relevant to his QB being a ****. Put him on the packers with Arod tossing him the pigskin and he would have a career year.

Pettigrew !!!, Yes. You don't see him make the drops Fin does

Cook is a new man? 46% of his yards came in the first game of the season. Since then he has had games of 1,5,4,3 and 2 catches. This is on a team with CHRIS GIVENS as their leading WR and their QB is averaging almost 39 passes a game. Yeah, Cook is lighting it up.

Perhaps I wasn't clear on Gates. My reason for not liking Gates is that over the past few seasons he has been an injury waiting to happen. You'll notice that none of my anti-Gates comments had to do with performance.

Bennett - how is pointing out that Bennet is averaging 0.1 yards fewer per catch debunking anything? Also, you've ignored the fact that Finley is averaging a full 4 yards after the catch more than Bennett. Your list was specifically about guys you would take "hands down" over Finley, why is a guy on par with Finley suddenly "hands down" better?

Pettigrew- you make it seem like Pettigrew is black hole of receiving where not even the light of the ball can escape. In 2012 he dropped 9 passes in 13 games, finley dropped 9 in 16 games. 2011 Pettigrew dropped 6 and Finley dropped 12. Skip 2010 since Finley was hurt. In 2009 Finley dropped 4, Pettigrew dropped 6. From what I can tell, two years ago Finley dropped a bunch of balls. The other two full seasons they were about equal and so far this year they've each dropped two.

Now, before we get into saying that people have comprehension issues, where did I fail to understand what you typed? Everything I mentioned had to do with the receiving abilities of the players mentioned. You said that you were creating a list of TEs that "could be used as a WR or are more of a WR type roll already or that I would take hands down over finley". How did my post not address that? I can only assume that something either did not get copied correctly or you're attributing something someone else wrote to me. You said that it was impossible to argue with your list. Not once did I say I didn't like any of those players (with the exception of Gates, too big an injury risk), just that an argument could be made that they aren't better than Finley. How did I misunderstand what you wrote? I'm always eager to improve my reading/writing skills.

 

[Oshkoshpackfan]

Funny how gates is an injury waiting to happen when 2010 was his only season that he sat out a bunch ( played 10 of 16 ) other than that he has a bunch of 16,15,13,14 game seasons. Remember, fin has had his share of dents and dings in a much shorter career than gates. Also funny how you seemed to pick and choose off my list, trying to make any type of grasp at your side that you could...leaving out clearly better choices. This was at first a matter of opinion, you chose to respond, and I made it a matter of fact.
I DO NOT hate any single packer player, I dislike a couple, but they still wear our colors so I have hope for them. I am not some silly blinded homer that cannot see finley for what he really is, OVERRATED. He only has one thing going for him and that is a size match up, other than that he does not have the best hands, speed, blocking skills (he either holds or gets beat), not the best route runner either. I have to give him a slight bit of credit to the fact that he seems to be fighting for more yards and not going down as easily this year....so far, unlike past seasons. His career numbers are not those of one to be held in high reguard like some people do. He is average at best. We could have done better.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FinlJe00.htm

Not so good...in MY opinion.

 

[FrankRizzo]

(Jermichael) He only has one thing going for him and that is a size match up...

He is average at best.

Even if the only thing he has going for him is that size matchup, then my thread topic here is accurate in your eyes. This short area of the red zone is the best place we should be utilizing him.

I agree his route running is okay, decent, not great.
And obviously his hands aren't more than good either.

But other teams have publicly stated that stopping #88 is their primary objective.
I remember when the Giants beat us, hearing that on their chalkboard they had stopping #88 as their key.

Also, the part I feel bad about Finley is he always is risking what happened to Cobb and that type of seam route. He always is sent to try and get behind the LB (who knows that route is coming frequently and he grabs Finley) but Finley knows there's a safety like Elam or Delmas waiting to either take his head off (he got the concussion a few weeks ago, first drive), or take his ACL or fibia out.

Again, take the hard helmets off these DBs and make them wear leather helmets and see if they keep missiling head first at guys. It's to the point I'd be afraid to throw those routes anymore because I don't want to lose all my guys.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Funny how gates is an injury waiting to happen when 2010 was his only season that he sat out a bunch ( played 10 of 16 ) other than that he has a bunch of 16,15,13,14 game seasons. Remember, fin has had his share of dents and dings in a much shorter career than gates. Also funny how you seemed to pick and choose off my list, trying to make any type of grasp at your side that you could...leaving out clearly better choices. This was at first a matter of opinion, you chose to respond, and I made it a matter of fact.
I DO NOT hate any single packer player, I dislike a couple, but they still wear our colors so I have hope for them. I am not some silly blinded homer that cannot see finley for what he really is, OVERRATED. He only has one thing going for him and that is a size match up, other than that he does not have the best hands, speed, blocking skills (he either holds or gets beat), not the best route runner either. I have to give him a slight bit of credit to the fact that he seems to be fighting for more yards and not going down as easily this year....so far, unlike past seasons. His career numbers are not those of one to be held in high reguard like some people do. He is average at best. We could have done better.

Of course I pick and chose off your list. You had TEs on your list that are obviously better. You really think I'm going to try and argue that Graham/Gronk aren't better receiving options than Finley? Maybe I'm overreacting to Gates' injury history and age. Historically he's been a much better receiver than any TE not named Graham and, after seeing that he hasn't missed that many snaps outside that one year, yeah, he'd be a guy I can't really argue against. The whole point of discussing whether a guy is better or not revolves around discussing their performance. I don't consider bringing up the fact that a guy is thrown the ball far more often to be "grasping" (simply one example, not going through the list again).

Everything either of us has brought up is a matter of opinion (other than Graham/Gronk being better receiving options, that's pretty much a fact). You stated that you had a list of 12 guys that were inarguably better at receiving than Finley. I simply said that arguments could be made against some on your list (and proceeded to do so). I used facts to back up my arguments. You used other facts to respond. Either way, it's still all opinion.

Overrated would imply that people think Finley is a top TE in this league. I don't think many people feel that way. I think, as do many others, that Finley has the physical tools to be a top-TE but, for whatever reason (mental, opportunity, offensive scheme, knee injury), that hasn't happened. Now, some fans are happy to root for the guy to succeed and some are more eager to keep tabs on his dropped passes (not saying you're either, simply stating that fans have different motivations). Finley is the Kobe Bryant of the Packers. The contention that he's average at best is also an opinion. It will be interesting, and telling, to see how Finley does over the next couple of months with Cobb out. Is he a guy that still underwhelms or can he get back to 2009-2010 form (I'm somewhat in the camp that his knee injury has slowed him slightly from then).

The only thing I took exception to was being told that my reading comprehension was poor. I asked that you explain to me what i didn't comprehend and I fear that your response was over my head again as I can't figure out where you addressed that in your reply.

 

[Oshkoshpackfan]

Seems that you misunderstood that my original post about guys who could play more of a WR role or who are playing a WR role as a TE. That is all. I just don't think fin can do that well enough. His lack of speed, route running, getting out of breaks etc.... can he double move? He is just not as versitile.