I have been waiting to comment on the Finley deal until we saw the numbers. After hearing it was a $15M two-year deal I'm very happy to see it's really a one-year deal for $5.75M. That's very close to the franchise number for TEs without using the tag. My guess is Finley won't be paid his $4.45M roster bonus at the beginning of the 2013 season. If his drops continue, if he suffers a severe injury, if he greatly exaggerates his worth, or if the coaching staff begins to view him as a selfish player as some fans do (the staff clearly doesn't view him like that now), he'll be waived. If he's just asking for too much, IMO there would be a very small chance he would return to the Packers as Jones did after determining his market value. If he fulfills his potential, the Packers will extend him to reduce the 2013 cap hit and he'll get his huge payday. When the news came out, I expected Finley would get about half of the $15M this season; this is much better than that.
A couple of things regarding Flynn: I believe there is a carryover of unused cap room from last season so I'm not sure if the previous estimates of the Packers' cap situation were accurate. If Thompson wants to risk it, I believe the way it will work is the Packers will tag Flynn (but of course have to stay under the cap) and tell his agent to shop him around and let him know the price the Packers will accept for Flynn. Both the Packers and Flynn have leverage in this situation. The Packers are vulnerable if Flynn signs the tender before a deal is struck. But if he does, the leverage the Packers have is they can then trade Flynn to a team Flynn doesn't want to go to. The Packers would get less in trade but still should be able to do better than a comp pick. A good compromise IMO is for the Packers not to ask too much in a trade (I would be very happy with a second round pick) and for Flynn to cooperate and sign the tender after a deal is struck. In this scenario the Packers get decent compensation and Flynn gets to pick his destination. The team he goes to doesn't have to enter a bidding war for his services and it isn't giving up too much compensation. Win. Win. Win.
I wouldn't use the tag on Wells and I don't think Thompson will. If the tag amount was just for OCs, maybe; but it's not. If they can do a tag and trade with Flynn I would rather have an extra pick in the top 60 in this draft and have EDS compete with rookies for the OC job than have a 2013 comp pick for Flynn and overpay Wells, which would be likely IMO if they tag Wells.