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Packers Hosting FA iDL Rodney Gunter
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 827679"><p>I agree, but with opportunities come costs. Let's break this down.</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The Packers just signed OG Billy Turner to a $7 mil per year backloaded contract based on a 2018 second half "breakout". 27 years old, 6th. year player. There's probably some premium in that deal for OT projection as at least an injury backup or even as a possible Bulaga replacement.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Gunter is a 27 year, 5th. year DE/DT also with a 2018 "breakout". He fits the Gutekunst profile for this offseason's free agents: go young or go home with guys with a multi-year runway. Second contract guys command a premium for that runway.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">While Gunter is not a $7 mil per year player, lets say $5 mil/year for the sake of argument. He must be asking for something substantial or he'd be signed by now.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Gutekunst has shot the *** on backloaded deals resulting in cap space for 2020 getting pretty tight. If we put an $8 mil 5th. year option on Clark, current 2020 cap commitments are $168 mil for 31 players with some notable FAs to be re-signed or replaced.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">With that tight cap situation for 2020, it stands to reason any FA signing of note going forward needs to have a flattish spread of cap over the duration of the deal. $5 mil for Gunter in 2019 would take up all of the usable cap space for 2019 leaving only $2 mil for PUP/IR reserve and minimal or no cap carryover to 2020 barring any upcoming cap savings cuts. Those cuts are dependent on what the draft yields.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">It stands to reason that a Gunter signing to such a deal would necessitate a cut to clear cap space as an offset if for no other reason than the carryover will become an issue in the not too distant future.</li> </ul><p>Who might that cut be? I'd suggest the possibility that Turner is viewed as a possible upgrade over Daniels considering:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Daniels productivity has been in decline since the second half of 2017. He'll be 30 years old in a few weeks and he's coming off an injury-plagued season. For many players, when injuries follow age more injuries follow. And age following age is immutable. He is a high risk at his cost.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Over his 419 defensive snaps in 2018, his stat line looks like this: 10 games, 9 starts, 2 sacks, 5 QB hits, 1 pass defended, 0 forced fumbles, 1 tackle for loss, 18 tackles, 10 solo. Unimpactful.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Of the free agents likely go unsigned in the 2020 offseason Daniels is high on the list. That makes him the equivalent of a one year rent-a-player. If he were a free agent this season the Packers would surely let him walk or take a sharp pay cut over the previous contract.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">He has a $10.7 mil cap number for 2019 with cap savings of $8.3 mil. Does forgoing that potential savings represent good value for an aging and declining rent-a-player coming off an IR foot injury? If we're to be honest with ourselves we would conclude "no". Would you sign him to a 1 year, $8.3 mil deal if he were somebody else's free agent? No, you would not.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">I remain bothered by reports following the 2017 season that the previous coaching regime, i.e. Capers, was not happy with Daniels' habit of freelancing. Is he on the "accountability" list? Or instead did Pettine rein him in to "do your job" resulting in declining production? It is a matter of speculation but nagging nonetheless.</li> </ul><p>The chief argument for retaining Daniels is the "who else ya got?" factor. I would posit the possibility that Gunter is being looked at as a possible answer to that question. I'm sure a Daniels-out / Gunter-in move would be shocking to many fans. But it would not be much more shocking than Nelson-out / Graham-in.</p><p></p><p>I leave the door open to this possibility from now until after the draft if Gunter is not signed elsewhere in the mean time.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 827679"] I agree, but with opportunities come costs. Let's break this down. [LIST] [*]The Packers just signed OG Billy Turner to a $7 mil per year backloaded contract based on a 2018 second half "breakout". 27 years old, 6th. year player. There's probably some premium in that deal for OT projection as at least an injury backup or even as a possible Bulaga replacement. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Gunter is a 27 year, 5th. year DE/DT also with a 2018 "breakout". He fits the Gutekunst profile for this offseason's free agents: go young or go home with guys with a multi-year runway. Second contract guys command a premium for that runway. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]While Gunter is not a $7 mil per year player, lets say $5 mil/year for the sake of argument. He must be asking for something substantial or he'd be signed by now. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Gutekunst has shot the *** on backloaded deals resulting in cap space for 2020 getting pretty tight. If we put an $8 mil 5th. year option on Clark, current 2020 cap commitments are $168 mil for 31 players with some notable FAs to be re-signed or replaced. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]With that tight cap situation for 2020, it stands to reason any FA signing of note going forward needs to have a flattish spread of cap over the duration of the deal. $5 mil for Gunter in 2019 would take up all of the usable cap space for 2019 leaving only $2 mil for PUP/IR reserve and minimal or no cap carryover to 2020 barring any upcoming cap savings cuts. Those cuts are dependent on what the draft yields. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]It stands to reason that a Gunter signing to such a deal would necessitate a cut to clear cap space as an offset if for no other reason than the carryover will become an issue in the not too distant future. [/LIST] Who might that cut be? I'd suggest the possibility that Turner is viewed as a possible upgrade over Daniels considering: [LIST] [*]Daniels productivity has been in decline since the second half of 2017. He'll be 30 years old in a few weeks and he's coming off an injury-plagued season. For many players, when injuries follow age more injuries follow. And age following age is immutable. He is a high risk at his cost. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Over his 419 defensive snaps in 2018, his stat line looks like this: 10 games, 9 starts, 2 sacks, 5 QB hits, 1 pass defended, 0 forced fumbles, 1 tackle for loss, 18 tackles, 10 solo. Unimpactful. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Of the free agents likely go unsigned in the 2020 offseason Daniels is high on the list. That makes him the equivalent of a one year rent-a-player. If he were a free agent this season the Packers would surely let him walk or take a sharp pay cut over the previous contract. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]He has a $10.7 mil cap number for 2019 with cap savings of $8.3 mil. Does forgoing that potential savings represent good value for an aging and declining rent-a-player coming off an IR foot injury? If we're to be honest with ourselves we would conclude "no". Would you sign him to a 1 year, $8.3 mil deal if he were somebody else's free agent? No, you would not. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]I remain bothered by reports following the 2017 season that the previous coaching regime, i.e. Capers, was not happy with Daniels' habit of freelancing. Is he on the "accountability" list? Or instead did Pettine rein him in to "do your job" resulting in declining production? It is a matter of speculation but nagging nonetheless. [/LIST] The chief argument for retaining Daniels is the "who else ya got?" factor. I would posit the possibility that Gunter is being looked at as a possible answer to that question. I'm sure a Daniels-out / Gunter-in move would be shocking to many fans. But it would not be much more shocking than Nelson-out / Graham-in. I leave the door open to this possibility from now until after the draft if Gunter is not signed elsewhere in the mean time. [/QUOTE]
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