Packers head to Minneapolis to keep hope alive

[RepStar15]

Some will agree, some do not want to hear it. This is a winnable game. Kirk Cousins was one of the best things the Vikings have done for the opposing NFC North teams. Consistently inconsistent. We will see how he handles a beaten down, injury plagued, Packers defense....but Kyler Frackrell though.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

Some will agree, some do not want to hear it. This is a winnable game. Kirk Cousins was one of the best things the Vikings have done for the opposing NFC North teams. Consistently inconsistent. We will see how he handles a beaten down, injury plagued, Packers defense....but Kyler Frackrell though.

I hope your not judging Kirk Cousins inconsistently by last weekends Bears game.
The bears right now are playing over their heads right now thanks to Mack

 

[weeds]

I'm with Kyra, this game is winnable even in the Pack's decrepit physical condition. Know why it's winnable? Because it's a Central (North, if you must) Division bloodbath game.

For no reason in particular, and with nothing to back it up...no rational reason for predicting as such, I'm predicting a Packers' win on Sunday night.

Probably because Aaron has never won in that building and Mike Daniels is out...most of youngsters here screaming for McCarthy's termination ... All the reasons that will have nobody giving the Pack a chance, are the very reasons I think they're going to win.

One game at a time... A couple of wins going forward and there'll be new life here.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

I'm with Kyra, this game is winnable even in the Pack's decrepit physical condition. Know why it's winnable? Because it's a Central (North, if you must) Division bloodbath game.

For no reason in particular, and with nothing to back it up...no rational reason for predicting as such, I'm predicting a Packers' win on Sunday night.

Probably because Aaron has never won in that building and Mike Daniels is out...most of youngsters here screaming for McCarthy's termination ... All the reasons that will have nobody giving the Pack a chance, are the very reasons I think they're going to win.

One game at a time... A couple of wins going forward and there'll be new life here.

Nothing wrong with being optimistic Packer fan.
Really, I hope your right.

 

[weeds]

Nothing wrong with being optimistic Packer fan.
Really, I hope your right.

Thing is, I'm not optimistic by nature. I'm not pessimistic by nature neither. I'm an analytic banker by nature. Can't help it.

Packers are going to win.

 

[PackerDNA]

I hope your not judging Kirk Cousins inconsistently by last weekends Bears game.
The bears right now are playing over their heads right now thanks to Mack

The Bears are getting better all the time. And their defense, if not the best in the league, is certainly among the best.

 

[rodell330]

Just don’t see us winning this game...and it’s a road game? This team can not get over the hump or win close games against Good opponents. 35-17 Vikings

 

[XPack]

Come on lads, we'd won the first game if not for the stupid call on clay's hit...that game was clearly in our favour, as will this be. Their O-Line is abysmal and Pettine would have fun blitzing it. If Kyler is back to his beast mode, Cousins will be on his back so often he thinks he's in Hawaii!

 

[swhitset]

I hope your not judging Kirk Cousins inconsistently by last weekends Bears game.
The bears right now are playing over their heads right now thanks to Mack

Why do you think ... that means they are playing over their heads?.... The Bears defense was already pretty good... and is Mack now not part of that team?

 

[Jerellh528]

This is a guaranteed victory.

 

[Half Empty]

Who's guaranteeing it, how much are they offering? Would like a piece of that action.

 

[Half Empty]

Thing is, I'm not optimistic by nature. I'm not pessimistic by nature neither. I'm an analytic banker by nature. Can't help it.

Packers are going to win.

Keep re-reading the two bold statements and can't quite reconcile them.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

Anyone hear a point spread on this game?

 

[Half Empty]

On the radio, it was Pack +4.5

 

[bigbubbatd]

I hope your not judging Kirk Cousins inconsistently by last weekends Bears game.
The bears right now are playing over their heads right now thanks to Mack

Cousins has turned the ball over 11 times and has accounted for 20 tds. He has been pretty bad at home. He has had costly ints in a few bit games. He has played great in a couple games. I think inconsistent is quite accurate for him. Overpaid as well

 

[HardRightEdge]

Matchup Stats (Details Below)

Observations:

• MIN fields a top 5 defense. Adjust points per game for 3 TDs surrendered by the offense (two pick 6's and a Cousins fumble returned for a TD in the last 5 games). The defense's Red zone TD% (40%) , third down conversion rate (league leading 28%), while not surrendering a 21+ yard TD over the last 6 games tells the story. The 3.5 yards per carry against is impressive, but requires some context. They've only given up 2 runs of more than 20 yards, with a long run of 21 which suppresses the average. However, opponents gaining first downs on 27% of their carriers is not a good defensive number nor is their opponents 6 of 10 on 4th. down conversions. It looks like a bend-don't-break run defense where the Packers may have success especially in short yardage.
• MIN's 87.5 passer rating against with 10 INTs is pretty decent. However, if Rodgers is true to form and avoids picks, that MIN pass rating against goes to 100.2. While NIN doesn't give up long TDs or long runs, for some perspective they have given up 30 20+ yard passes compared to the Packers defense surrending 28, while MIN has given up 8 40+ yard passes compared to the Packers 5, not accunting for PI calls. The MIN profile is a defense that doesn't let teams score on their long plays and then stops them in the red zone regardless of how they get there.
• There's a lot of bend-don't-break in the Minnesota defense with a knack for stiffening on 3rd. down and in the red zone. It kinda begs for a Packer ball control offensive approach with a mix of intermediate throws.
• Minnesota's offense can be summed up as having 1) a weak running game; 2) Theilen and Diggs on a lot of high percentage passes and 3) Cousins being mistake prone.

Outlook

• I'd give MIN a 2 point advantage for home field instead of the uusal 3 since the Packers are benefiting from a long week.
• I give MIN a 3 point edge on the red zone superiority of their defense
• The only area where I give the Packers a noticeable edge is in the comparative run games against the comparative defenses; MIN gets the edge in relative 3rd. down performance and penalties, for a net 1.5 point edge.
• I see MIN as a 6.5 point favorite vs. Vegas current odds of MIN as a 3.5 point favorite.
• Injury inactives are "off" at the moment as far as I'm concerned; the edge may move a bit one way or the other when we have more info.
• The Packers will need to play an uncharacteristically clean game, such as the first 58 minutes of the Rams game, to pull an upset. Going *** for tat on screw ups with Cousins on a off day probably won't cut it. If Cousins is on and avoids mistakes, well....

Passer Rating - Slight Edge MIN

Cousins Passer Rating: 99.3 (incl. 7 INTs)
GB Passer Rating Against: 94.5 (incl. 6 INTs)

Rodgers Passer Rating: 102.2 (incl. 1 INT)
MIN Passer Rating Against: 87.5 (incl. 10 INTs)

Sacks - Slight Edge GB

Cousins Sacked: 26
GB Sacks: 34

Rodgers Sacked: 30
MIN Sacks: 32

Fumbles - Push

MIN Lost Fumbles: 9
GB Recovered Fumbles: 6

GB Lost Fumbles: 9
MIN Recovered Fumbles: 7

Red Zone TDs - Edge MIN

MIN Red Zone TD%: 53%
GB Red Zone TD% Against: 56%

GB Red Zone TD%: 60%
MIN Red Zone TD% Against: 40%

21+ yard TDs - Push on Offense; Edge MIN on defense

MIN 21+ yard TD scores: 11 (6 pass, 2 run, 2 fumble returns, 1 pick 6 )
GB 21+ yard TDs against: 8 (7 pass, 1 pick six)

GB 21+ yard TD scores: 8 (7 pass, 1 run)
*MIN 21+ yard TDs against: 8 (5 pass, 2 pick 6, 1 fumble return)

* Over the last 6 games, the MIN defense has not surrendered a 21+ yard TD while the offense has surrendered 3 on turnovers

3rd. and 4th. Down Conversions - Edge MIN

MIN 3rd. Down Conversions: 39%
GB 3rd. Down Conversions Against: 37%

GB 3rd. Down Conversions: 38%
MIN 3rd. Down Conversions Against: 28% (league lead)

GB 4th. Down Coversions: 36% (4 of 11)
MIN 4th. Down Conversions Against: 60% (6 of 10)

MIN 4th. Down Coversions: 64% (7 of 11)
GB 4th. Down Conversions Against: 60% (6 of 10)

Rushing - Edge GB

MIN Yards Per Carry: 4.0
GB Yards Per Carry Against: 4.6

GB Yards Per Carry: 5.1
*MIN Yards Per Carry Against: 3.5

MIN First Downs Rushing: 35 on 211 carries, 17%
GB First Downs Rushing Against: 66 on 277 carries, 24%

GB First Downs Rushing: 65 on 214 carries, 30%
MIN First Downs Rushing Against: 61 on 260 carries 27%

*MIN has given up only 2 runs of 20+ yards, with a long of 21 yards

Penalties - Edge MIN

GB net penalty yards per game: -31 (last in the league)
MIN net penalty yards per game: +4

GB net penalty first downs per game: -1.4
MIN net penalty first downs per game: -0.7

Likely Key Inactives - Off - Wed. Practice Participation

MIN - 4 DNP, 4 limited
GB - 7 DNP, 2 limited

Football Outsiders Special Teams Rankings (DVOA) - PUSH

MIN 24th.
GB 25th.

 

[Poppa San]

MIN Yards Per Carry: 4.0
GB Yards Per Carry Against: 4.6

From nfl . com

Dalvin Cook to feast on a run defense that allows 4 yards or more 49.1 percent of the time, 30th in the NFL.

 

[HardRightEdge]

From nfl . com

30th. in the NFL is not exactly fear inspiring, whatever "feast" equates to. And the sample size is pretty small even taking into account his 4 games last season pre-injuries.

Cook was struggling off and on with a hamstring this season while coming off an ACL that ended his 2017 season. The fact he was given only 2 carries in the preseason would indicate this ACL repair was not just rolling into the garage for a wheel alignment and then good as new. Here's his complete game log for this season:

http://www.nfl.com/player/dalvincook/2557991/gamelogs

The only game that pops is his 10 for 89 against Detroit, a team allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Fits the thesis, right? However, there's something to note in that game: a 70 yard run. Cook's runs in that game went for 2, 7, 0, 2, 70, 5, -1, 1, -1, 4. If you drop out the 70 yarder, he was 10 for 19 in that game followed by 9 for 12 against the Bears defense that leads the league at 3.5 yards per carry. There's not much difference in those games (despite being declared "full go" for the Bears game) other than the home run. Without the home run, he's at 129 yards on 54 carries for a 2.4 yd. average for the season.

So, what about that 70 yarder? Here it is:

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Clean hole, untouched, runs a straight line into space, then run down by Glover Quinn who is not exactly the speediest safety around. There isn't any eye-popping skill on display in this run, no ankle-breaking cutbacks, broken tackles, stiff arms...just see the hole, hit the hole.

Could Cook go off with an outcome-altering long run against the Packers? Sure. But these kinds of runs are rare, whether it is Cook or anybody else. And whatever one might think of the Packer run defense, the long run against them this season was 41 by Peterson with only 2 others of 30 or more.

From a statistical standpoint, which is what we're talking about here, Cook is a feast or famine runner, not a guy who's going to move the chains or carve out a game with a collection of 5. 10, 15 yard runs.

Whether we're talking about fantasy football or real football, a bet on Cook looks like picking a 20-1 long shot to win the Derby.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Keep re-reading the two bold statements and can't quite reconcile them.

You could have bolded "analytical banker" as well.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Cousins has turned the ball over 11 times and has accounted for 20 tds. He has been pretty bad at home. He has had costly ints in a few bit games. He has played great in a couple games. I think inconsistent is quite accurate for him. Overpaid as well

The Vikings have scored 3 TDs on defense (a pick 6 and 2 fumble returns) while the offense has surrendered 3 TDs (2 pick 6's and a TD return on a Cousins fumble). These 6 plays occurred in 6 different games.

In the 3 games where the Vikings scored a defensive TD (SF, PHI, DET), they won. In the 3 games where Cousins was responsible for surrendering a TD (AZ, NO, CHI), they are 1-2 with the one win against a dreadful AZ team scoring 14.5 points per game.

The Packers have not been very good in creating turnovers, 6 INTs and 6 fumble recoveries. The 12 total ranks tied for 20th. When you subtract the 3 INTs that got traded to the Redskins, the current defense is responsible for 9, tied for 25th.

Performance to date indicates this Packer defense is not likely to exploit Cousins mistakes.

 

[brandon2348]

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[bigbubbatd]

The Vikings have scored 3 TDs on defense (a pick 6 and 2 fumble returns) while the offense has surrendered 3 TDs (2 pick 6's and a TD return on a Cousins fumble). These 6 plays occurred in 6 different games.

In the 3 games where the Vikings scored a defensive TD (SF, PHI, DET), they won. In the 3 games where Cousins was responsible for surrendering a TD (AZ, NO, CHI), they are 1-2 with the one win against a dreadful AZ team scoring 14.5 points per game.

The Packers have not been very good in creating turnovers, 6 INTs and 6 fumble recoveries. The 12 total ranks tied for 20th. When you subtract the 3 INTs that got traded to the Redskins, the current defense is responsible for 9, tied for 25th.

Performance to date indicates this Packer defense is not likely to exploit Cousins mistakes.

Seems unlikely the Vikings will score on defense though so that is a plus. Also this is a game that could have a ton of sacks. Packers and Vikings both give up a lot of sacks and get a lot of sacks .

This game may come down to the run game. The Packers run defense is banged up. Minnesota is an up and down running team. GB goes away from the run too quickly and the Vikings seem to play the run well.

 

[weeds]

Keep re-reading the two bold statements and can't quite reconcile them.

Ok, I spent a long, LONG weekend with my inlaws and even THAT ordeal could not slap the belief out of me that the Pack win today. So there...take that.

 

[shockerx]

Ok, I spent a long, LONG weekend with my inlaws and even THAT ordeal could not slap the belief out of me that the Pack win today. So there...take that.

Well if they dont win, they are 4-6-1.....same record as the Browns with a rookie QB.

 

[yooperpackfan]

Well if they dont win, they are 4-6-1.....same record as the Browns with a rookie QB.

OUCH, that cuts right to the quick!!