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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 864825"><p>There's a thread dedicated to the topic, not that it matters. Anyway, a few notes:</p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">While the draft class cost should be around that $7.5 mil 2020 cap number, that's not the deduction at this juncture. The Packers now have 53 players currently under contract according to both overthecap and spotrac. If one were to assume all 10 draftees make the roster, then 10 players currently counting against the 53 man cap get bumped out of the cap count. The differerence between a 3rd. rounder and the rookie minimum is neglible. For instance, Sternberger's rookie cap cost was $630,000 vs the 53rd. guy on the current totem pole at $510,000. So even if anybody from the 3rd. round down doesn't make the team the end result is nearly the same. The working number for draftee deductions should be something around $2.0 - $2.5 mil for the cost of the first 2 picks over and above the minimum salary guys they bump. You could fine tune that by looking at the cap costs for the guys last year in those slots and add something like 6% for the cap bump.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Overthecap ($24 mil) and spotrac ($22 mil) have meaningfully lower starting points than ESPN. Salary data is proprietary. While ESPN Sports and Information's report may be proprietary the source data is not; ESPN has no more access to actual contract data than other sources. They all cobble it together from reports or agents or team leaks or league leaks. That said, I'm disinclined to trust a single quoted number without seeing the detail of how they arrived at it and for comparison to the detailed sources. The ESPN number quoted by Demovsky might be a better number than the others but there is no reason to believe it is. Does that number include the recent incentive bumps for Jones and Williams? Who know?</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Is the ESPN number for the top 51? That's the number typically cited at this time of year. So, there's a possible $1 mil cap deduction, up in the air absent their details, just to add two minimum salary guys.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The 2020 cap is not yet set. There in an announced range. The difference between the high and low is $4.4 mil. Whether you take the high or low number makes a meaningful difference. There will be more clarity when they announce the actual number. Last year it was at the lower end of the range. Is ESPN assuming the high end of the range?</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">You did not account for the practice squad. Last year it was $8,000 per week x 17 weeks x 10 players = $1.36 mil. Maybe closer to $1.45 mil this year.</li> </ul><p>To paraphrase Everett Dirkson, a million here, a couple million there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money. As we move along assumptions get converted to facts and we get greater clarity.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 864825"] There's a thread dedicated to the topic, not that it matters. Anyway, a few notes: [LIST] [*]While the draft class cost should be around that $7.5 mil 2020 cap number, that's not the deduction at this juncture. The Packers now have 53 players currently under contract according to both overthecap and spotrac. If one were to assume all 10 draftees make the roster, then 10 players currently counting against the 53 man cap get bumped out of the cap count. The differerence between a 3rd. rounder and the rookie minimum is neglible. For instance, Sternberger's rookie cap cost was $630,000 vs the 53rd. guy on the current totem pole at $510,000. So even if anybody from the 3rd. round down doesn't make the team the end result is nearly the same. The working number for draftee deductions should be something around $2.0 - $2.5 mil for the cost of the first 2 picks over and above the minimum salary guys they bump. You could fine tune that by looking at the cap costs for the guys last year in those slots and add something like 6% for the cap bump. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Overthecap ($24 mil) and spotrac ($22 mil) have meaningfully lower starting points than ESPN. Salary data is proprietary. While ESPN Sports and Information's report may be proprietary the source data is not; ESPN has no more access to actual contract data than other sources. They all cobble it together from reports or agents or team leaks or league leaks. That said, I'm disinclined to trust a single quoted number without seeing the detail of how they arrived at it and for comparison to the detailed sources. The ESPN number quoted by Demovsky might be a better number than the others but there is no reason to believe it is. Does that number include the recent incentive bumps for Jones and Williams? Who know? [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Is the ESPN number for the top 51? That's the number typically cited at this time of year. So, there's a possible $1 mil cap deduction, up in the air absent their details, just to add two minimum salary guys. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]The 2020 cap is not yet set. There in an announced range. The difference between the high and low is $4.4 mil. Whether you take the high or low number makes a meaningful difference. There will be more clarity when they announce the actual number. Last year it was at the lower end of the range. Is ESPN assuming the high end of the range? [/LIST] [LIST] [*]You did not account for the practice squad. Last year it was $8,000 per week x 17 weeks x 10 players = $1.36 mil. Maybe closer to $1.45 mil this year. [/LIST] To paraphrase Everett Dirkson, a million here, a couple million there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money. As we move along assumptions get converted to facts and we get greater clarity. [/QUOTE]
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