Packers at Titans 9/22/24 Pregame Thoughts

[OldSchool101]

Well here we are looking towards Week 3 already. After losing a hard fought battle to the Eagles in Brazil, a late QB injury provided BIG questions about the Packers in 2024. Then as the week progressed we learned that our star QB had a much less intense injury than originally thought. That good news was overlapped this week with a team Win led by our new backup QB, Malik Willis.

A Win for me likely signals buying our QB1 some time. My best guess at this point is we start Malik at least 1 more week, then we see Love back in practice (albeit limited) next week to prepare for the Vikings. Malik responded well against the Colts considering his limited time in GB (just 19 days to prepare). He relied on a heavy mixture of Jacobs ground and pound with just enough pass and QB scramble to exploit Indianapolis.

Now we look to Tennessee and Malik’s former home for 2 years

Discuss…

 

[milani]

Well here we are looking towards Week 3 already. After losing a hard fought battle to the Eagles in Brazil, a late QB injury provided BIG questions about the Packers in 2024. Then as the week progressed we learned that our star QB had a much less intense injury than originally thought. That good news was overlapped this week with a team Win led by our new backup QB, Malik Willis.

A Win for me likely signals buying our QB1 some time. My best guess at this point is we start Malik at least 1 more week, then we see Love back in practice (albeit limited) next week to prepare for the Vikings. Malik responded well against the Colts considering his limited time in GB (just 19 days to prepare). He relied on a heavy mixture of Jacobs ground and pound with just enough pass and QB scramble to exploit Indianapolis.

Now we look to Tennessee and Malik’s former home for 2 years

Discuss…

Titans have shot themselves in the foot 2 weeks in a row by having a punt blocked. Did figure in the outcomes. Their D is pretty good. They had to face Rodgers who was changing plays. Again our D has to play tough. The Titans will definitely focus on the run game. And our kicker needs to come through.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yeah I think the Titans have a slightly better Defense than the Colts. Last year Tennessee ranked top 10 in the bulk of major Defensive categories. This week they did an ok job slowing Rodgers down, considering all his weapons. But the Titans forgot about the RB’s in the passing game and Rodgers threw 2 TD’s in that group (Braelon and Breece).

GB did show that we are equipped to run the ball. However we can’t expect to gain 250+ yards rushing every week either. We might need to open up the pass just enough to keep TN honest. Like in that ~20 attempts area.

Defense needs to step up and it’s not like this is Pat Mahomes here. Will Levis is ranked #28 in QBR. He will scramble a little when given a chance and he’s productive when doing so, but this isn’t a QB who will rush for 100 yards like Hurts or Richardson.
We need to get after him a little more this week

I don’t see a high scoring game. I see a lot of Run mix again. Regardless if we finish at 3.8 per carry or 4.8 per carry, it eats the clock. Probably <40 points scored total over/under max at 45 points. I also would not be shocked if we hold Tennessee under <20 points

 

[OldSchool101]

If we can find a way to get another Win this would be huge starting 2-1 with a backup QB. I’d feel good if our backup QB could pull out 1 more Win. I sure would want Jordan back for Minnesota at Lambeau. Thats an important game.

 

[Pugger]

That stadium in Nashville is one ugly edifice from the outside.

 

[tynimiller]

Truthfully speaking there is argument for most phases to just teeter enough to argue Titans have the edge…BUT last week changed that. I’d have said Tennessee had the edge overall because less unknown and more established QB.

Levis looks lost out there and honestly I wouldn’t be shocked to hear Mason is gonna start instead…but likely given they’re facing a Willis led team they ride Levis one more week.

Takeaways are there for the taking with Levis and I think we gotta go in there and win that for sure to have a chance. And I think we do.

I also think Gary is sick of the talk of limited pressures and sacks…I will predict a two sack game out of him and if not one with one massive big play to go along with.

Offensively I feel we will have more pass plays…I suspect MLF may flip the script and call a deep ball early…you get TENN thinking we will attack and trust Malik deep changes the entire plan I’m sure.

I’ll go similar to last week and predict 27-20

Malik Willis breaks 150 through the air though (not much more but enough), throws a TD and runs a TD.

We break 200 yards rushing.

Cooper gets more snaps….and we see Nixon not in as much as previous but still too much.

 

[XPack]

Time to give Crosby a call

 

[sschind]

Defense needs to step up and it’s not like this is Pat Mahomes here. Will Levis is ranked #28 in QBR. He will scramble a little when given a chance and he’s productive when doing so, but this isn’t a QB who will rush for 100 yards like Hurts or Richardson.
We need to get after him a little more this week

I do think a big part of Haffley's plan in the first two games was to not let Hurts or Richardson beat us with their legs and they did a great job of that. Unfortunately I think that necessitates being a bit more cautious when it comes to putting pressure on the QB. With Levis not being the runner that Hurts or Richardson are it would not surprise me at all to see him dial up the pressure. I think we might see a bit more of what we all expected, or at least hoped, this defense would be under him. Levis doesn't have the weapons that Hurts and Richardson have either so so its going to be more on him. I don't think he has it.

 

[weeds]

I just want to offer up an obvious "negative" in that Tennessee will be fully aware of EVERY Willis shortcoming and how to goad him into going there.

I also think they have a better run D - so now we'll see if our big-fat-uglies can move big piles of Tennessee meat and control the line of scrimmage.

Will our newest folk hero become steamin' Willie Beaman this week and chuck the ball into parts unknown, or ... will he stay course ... you know, like cookin' the perfect brats ... low and slow?

 

[milani]

Truthfully speaking there is argument for most phases to just teeter enough to argue Titans have the edge…BUT last week changed that. I’d have said Tennessee had the edge overall because less unknown and more established QB.

Levis looks lost out there and honestly I wouldn’t be shocked to hear Mason is gonna start instead…but likely given they’re facing a Willis led team they ride Levis one more week.

Takeaways are there for the taking with Levis and I think we gotta go in there and win that for sure to have a chance. And I think we do.

I also think Gary is sick of the talk of limited pressures and sacks…I will predict a two sack game out of him and if not one with one massive big play to go along with.

Offensively I feel we will have more pass plays…I suspect MLF may flip the script and call a deep ball early…you get TENN thinking we will attack and trust Malik deep changes the entire plan I’m sure.

I’ll go similar to last week and predict 27-20

Malik Willis breaks 150 through the air though (not much more but enough), throws a TD and runs a TD.

We break 200 yards rushing.

Cooper gets more snaps….and we see Nixon not in as much as previous but still too much.

We need to stop the run and force more throws so the pass rush gets its chance.

 

[OldSchool101]

I do think a big part of Haffley's plan in the first two games was to not let Hurts or Richardson beat us with their legs and they did a great job of that. Unfortunately I think that necessitates being a bit more cautious when it comes to putting pressure on the QB. With Levis not being the runner that Hurts or Richardson are it would not surprise me at all to see him dial up the pressure. I think we might see a bit more of what we all expected, or at least hoped, this defense would be under him. Levis doesn't have the weapons that Hurts and Richardson have either so so its going to be more on him. I don't think he has it.

Exactly what I was going to say. Those first 2 games have QB’s who can punish you with their legs if not contained. Might as well be a RB/ QB combo.
Now we get a more “normal” range QB who is not as explosive running. We can afford 40-50 yards rushing by Will if it = getting 3-4 Sacks and more QB hits or pressures in the Pass game. We know what Hurts did to us last year and we know what type of athlete Richardson is. Those guys are 2 of the best 5 or so Runners in the entire league at QB. Levis isn’t on their level and I suspect we see more LB or DB blitz packages

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Titans defense is FAR better than the Colts against the run so MLF is going to have break out the good stuff in scheming open some throws for Willis. In the second half of the Colts game the Packers had a rushing success rate of 5.6%; the league average success rate is about 40% (in the first half the Packers had a success rate of 42.4%). The Titans offense isn't very scary but if the Packers can't throw the ball to sustain drives I'm a little concerned about how they'll keep up with a poor Titans offense.

 

[OldSchool101]

Titans defense is FAR better than the Colts against the run so MLF is going to have break out the good stuff in scheming open some throws for Willis. In the second half of the Colts game the Packers had a rushing success rate of 5.6%; the league average success rate is about 40% (in the first half the Packers had a success rate of 42.4%). The Titans offense isn't very scary but if the Packers can't throw the ball to sustain drives I'm a little concerned about how they'll keep up with a poor Titans offense.

Yes I agree. I think we can open the playbook just enough to match Willis comfort level. We don’t need to go from 14 attempts to 34 attempts etc.
I do think we can sustain 20-25 pass plays though.

 

[milani]

Exactly what I was going to say. Those first 2 games have QB’s who can punish you with their legs if not contained. Might as well be a RB/ QB combo.
Now we get a more “normal” range QB who is not as explosive running. We can afford 40-50 yards rushing by Will if it = getting 3-4 Sacks and more QB hits or pressures in the Pass game. We know what Hurts did to us last year and we know what type of athlete Richardson is. Those guys are 2 of the best 5 or so Runners in the entire league at QB. Levis isn’t on their level and I suspect we see more LB or DB blitz packages

Kenny Clark has to get better. He has graded out lower than usual these last two weeks. Even when he was double teamed he still was effective in the past.

 

[milani]

Titans defense is FAR better than the Colts against the run so MLF is going to have break out the good stuff in scheming open some throws for Willis. In the second half of the Colts game the Packers had a rushing success rate of 5.6%; the league average success rate is about 40% (in the first half the Packers had a success rate of 42.4%). The Titans offense isn't very scary but if the Packers can't throw the ball to sustain drives I'm a little concerned about how they'll keep up with a poor Titans offense.

Low scoring affair. Hopefully, turnovers and ST can be the difference.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Just found these numbers (I couldn't find them for my post above). Packers called a run play 47 times against the Colts which is second most in the Next Gen Stats database (not sure how far back it goes but the most called run plays was in 2017). The 74% designed run play rate was also the second most in the database. It worked for a half against a terrible run defense. I'm not sure it's going to be as successful against a much better run defense. Willis is going to have to prove something in the passing game, though not much because I'm not expecting the Titans putrid offense to do much against the Packers D.

 

[OldSchool101]

Will have to rely on playing Field position combined with our D stepping up again. Thankfully Tennessee is NOT a formidable Offense.
If we can play D like the Jets and get something like this?
Punt, TD, Fumble, INT, FG (10 points)
Punt, TD,block Punt, Punt, Punt, Downs (7 points). Then we’re going to be very much alive in this game to the end. I suspect we can score at least 13-23 points area on these guys

I’d stay away from the Reverses without an option to throw. TN will play 8 in the Box and running downhill to the ball. I’d rather Run and get -1 than a Reverse and chance -8. Even more critical is NOT getting them mentally fired up.
our O Plays need to be forward pressing and don’t give them any free losses. Just play ball control and use our faster TE in shorter high probability throws. Short 5 yard gains are fine keep it manageable on 3rd down. Malik is good for a few 5+ yard scampers to the sideline for a 1st.

 

[Voyageur]

That stadium in Nashville is one ugly edifice from the outside.

I've driven past the stadium several times. In trips from Wisconsin to Alabama and back, as well as trips from Wisconsin to Texas, and back. When you look at it the stadium from a distance, it shows no personality.

It's just there for games. Obviously not something that decorates the skyline, like most stadiums.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Love practiced today, which is a good sign. Will be interesting to see what the Packers designate him at on the injury report.

x.com

x.com

 

[milani]

Just found these numbers (I couldn't find them for my post above). Packers called a run play 47 times against the Colts which is second most in the Next Gen Stats database (not sure how far back it goes but the most called run plays was in 2017). The 74% designed run play rate was also the second most in the database. It worked for a half against a terrible run defense. I'm not sure it's going to be as successful against a much better run defense. Willis is going to have to prove something in the passing game, though not much because I'm not expecting the Titans putrid offense to do much against the Packers D.

Stop Pollard.

 

[milani]

I've driven past the stadium several times. In trips from Wisconsin to Alabama and back, as well as trips from Wisconsin to Texas, and back. When you look at it the stadium from a distance, it shows no personality.

It's just there for games. Obviously not something that decorates the skyline, like most stadiums.

The first year the Houston Oilers moved to Tennessee I believe they played one season in Memphis.

 

[Pugger]

I've driven past the stadium several times. In trips from Wisconsin to Alabama and back, as well as trips from Wisconsin to Texas, and back. When you look at it the stadium from a distance, it shows no personality.

It's just there for games. Obviously not something that decorates the skyline, like most stadiums.

Yes, we drive past it when going to and from Wisconsin and Florida. Of course Lambeau looks great.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Love practiced today, which is a good sign. Will be interesting to see what the Packers designate him at on the injury report.

x.com

x.com

Assume questionable (50/50) since it really does seem like a 50% chance he will play.

 

[OldSchool101]

Assume questionable (50/50) since it really does seem like a 50% chance he will play.

The more I consider it, the more If given the choice I rest him. Give it another week and I feel totally comfortable. Also, the faster it heals the faster we lose the brace and he has full mobility. Taking a setback in order to try to win 1 non Conference game might not be the most prudent path.
Worst case, we start 1-2 and he’s 90% chance good to go for Minnesota. I personally don’t take any issue with that path.

The other thing to consider is letting Jordan ease in by playing a Quarter or 2 Quarters etc. I know that’s not customary, but it would give Jordan some needed reps to test his brace.

 

[lambeaulambo]

I think Jordan is back this week if Malik struggles. Or just outright gonna play - he is a gunslinger no question about it!!