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Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE
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<blockquote data-quote="Pokerbrat2000" data-source="post: 933047" data-attributes="member: 7261"><p>I guess it depends on how you measure home runs and success on an individual basis and in totality as well. If the expectation is to get "x number of players from each draft to do y". Then you are correct, it shouldn't matter where in the draft those players were drafted. Unfortunately, I don't think that it's quite that simple. For instance, if you used pick #12 in the Draft on a FG kicker and by year 3, he was a top 5 kicker. Then in the next years draft, you used pick #241 on a QB, that also becomes a top 5 QB 3 years later, which was the better pick between those 2 players? Now flip it...the QB was #12 and Kicker was #241, which was the better pick or same results?</p><p></p><p>Also, if you look at the draft history of the Packers, as you get later in the Draft, on average the picks have been less successful. Makes sense, a player picked high probably has more talent and thus a better chance at succeeding and contributing more, but also probably a bigger failure, if the bust.</p><p></p><p>While I get what you're saying, basically once the draft pick is used, it's gone and all that matters in 3 years and beyond, is the contribution of the player. That said, I consider Jeff Janis (7th round pick) a much better pick than say Jason Spriggs (2nd+ rounder). They had similar careers with Green Bay as far as contributions, but Janis was a meager investment in comparison.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Pokerbrat2000, post: 933047, member: 7261"] I guess it depends on how you measure home runs and success on an individual basis and in totality as well. If the expectation is to get "x number of players from each draft to do y". Then you are correct, it shouldn't matter where in the draft those players were drafted. Unfortunately, I don't think that it's quite that simple. For instance, if you used pick #12 in the Draft on a FG kicker and by year 3, he was a top 5 kicker. Then in the next years draft, you used pick #241 on a QB, that also becomes a top 5 QB 3 years later, which was the better pick between those 2 players? Now flip it...the QB was #12 and Kicker was #241, which was the better pick or same results? Also, if you look at the draft history of the Packers, as you get later in the Draft, on average the picks have been less successful. Makes sense, a player picked high probably has more talent and thus a better chance at succeeding and contributing more, but also probably a bigger failure, if the bust. While I get what you're saying, basically once the draft pick is used, it's gone and all that matters in 3 years and beyond, is the contribution of the player. That said, I consider Jeff Janis (7th round pick) a much better pick than say Jason Spriggs (2nd+ rounder). They had similar careers with Green Bay as far as contributions, but Janis was a meager investment in comparison. [/QUOTE]
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Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE
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