Packer Types

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Gute Loot
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It's been suggested elsewhere that one way to narrow down a draft board is by eliminating players who will likely be gone by the time your team picks.

Another is to identify trends in your team's draft history that indicate what the FO looks for. So I am making some observations here about the Packers' trends on days 1 and 2 since 2012 (when Gutekunst took over as director of college scouting) and then I'll post lists of players at various positions who fit with the trends.

Total picks, rounds 1-3, since 2012: 31

Positional Breakdown:

-CB: 7
-iDL: 5
-ED: 3
-WR: 3
-S: 3
-TE: 3
-iOL: 2
-RB: 2
-OT: 1
-LB: 1
-QB: 1

-Notes:
--All 3 TE's have been in the 3rd round
--DL, ED, and DB have accounted for all but one 1st round pick
--Absence of OT almost certainly due to personnel on the roster during this span

RAS Breakdown:

-9+: 11
-8+: 16
-7+: 22
-<7: 8*
-N/A: 1

*especially willing to accept lower RAS in the 3rd round and at iDL and TE

Level of Competition: Only thing to say here is that all 31 players were FBS; no aversion to group of 5 schools, but 0 FCS selections on days 1/2 in 10 years.

Size: Regardless of position, the Packers have drafted one player in this span under 5"11" (Alexander) and the lightest player they drafted was Casey Hayward (185 lbs).

Conclusion: If you want to make a board of Packer type players, weed out undersized guys, guys with low RAS (excepting TE and iDL), and FCS level players. So who are the names?
 
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Gute Loot
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So I am leaving off QB and RB entirely and TE's and iOL's projected to go top 50. All WR's and OT's projected through the top 100 included.

Wide Receiver:

-Qualified:


-Chris Olave, OSU
-George Pickens, UGA
-Jalen Tolbert, SAU
-Khalil Shakir, BSU


-Excluded:

-Garrett Wilson, OSU (weight)
-Treylon Burks, ARK (RAS)
-Jahan Dotson, PSU (RAS, height, weight)
-Skyy Moore, WMU (height)
-Christians Watson, NDSU (FCS)
-Wan'Dale Robison, UK (RAS)
-David Bell, PUR (RAS)
-Makai Polk, MSU (RAS)


-No Data:

-Jameson Williams, UA
-Drake London, USC
-John Metchie, UA



Offensive Tackle:

-Qualified:


-Ikem Ekwonu, NCSU
-Charles Cross, MSU
-Bernhard Raimann, CMU
-Tyler Smith, Tulsa
-Nick Petit-Frere, OSU
-Sean Rhyan, UCLA
-Abraham Lucas, WSU


-Excluded:

-Trevor Penning, UNI (FCS)
-Max Mitchell, UL (RAS)
-Daniel Faalele, MINN (RAS)
-Matt Waletzko, UND (FCS)


-No Data:

-Evan Neal, UA
-Rasheed Walker, PSU



Interior Offensive Line:

-Qualified:


-Logan Bruss, UW
-Dylan Parham, MEM
-Joshua Ezeudu, UNC
-Cameron Jurgens, NEB


-Excluded:

-Darian Kinnard, UK (RAS)
-Luke Fortner, UK (RAS)
-Jamaree Salyer, UGA (RAS)


-No Data:

-Luke Goedeke, CMU


Tight End:

-Charlie Kolar, ISU
-Isaiah Likely, CCU
-Jelani Woods, UVA
-Daniel Bellinger, SDSU
 
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Gute Loot
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I am excluding linebackers, as well as defensive backs who would have to be taken in round 1.

Edge:

-Qualified:


-Aidan Hutchinson, UM
-Travon Walker, UGA
-Kayvon Thibodeaux, OR
-Jermaine Johnson, FSU
-George Karlaftis, PUR
-David Ojabo, UM
-Boye Mafe, MINN
-Nik Bonnito, OK
-Joshua Paschal, UK
-Sam Williams, MISS
-Dominique Robinson, MIAOH
-Kingsley Enagbare, SC


-Excluded:

N/A


-No Data:

-Arnold Ebiketie, PSU
-Cameron Thomas, SDSU
-DeAngelo Malone, WKU'



Interior Defensive Line:

-Qualified:

-Jordan Davis, UGA
-Devonte Wyatt, UGA
-Travis Jones, UCONN
-Logan Hall, UH
-DeMarvin Leal, TMAU
-Matthew Butler, TENN
-Zachary Carter, UF


-Excluded:

-Neil Farrell, LSU


-No Data:

-Phidarian Mathis, UA
-Perrion Winfrey, OK
-Eyioma Uwazurike, IAST



Defensive Backs:

Qualified:

-Jalyn Armour-Davis, UA
-Lewis Cine, UGA
-Nick Cross, MAR
-Coby Bryant, CIN
-Tycen Anderson, TOL
-Alontae Taylor, TENN
-JT Woods, BAY


Excluded:

-Roger McCreary, AUB (RAS)
-Joshua Williams, Fayetteville (Non-FBS)
-Vincent Gray, UM (RAS)
-Zyon McCullom, SHSU (FCS)
-Jaylen Pitre, BAY (RAS)


No Data:

-Marcus Jones, UH
 
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It's been suggested elsewhere that one way to narrow down a draft board is by eliminating players who will likely be gone by the time your team picks.

Another is to identify trends in your team's draft history that indicate what the FO looks for. So I am making some observations here about the Packers' trends on days 1 and 2 since 2012 (when Gutekunst took over as director of college scouting) and then I'll post lists of players at various positions who fit with the trends.

Total picks, rounds 1-3, since 2012: 31

Positional Breakdown:

-CB: 7
-iDL: 5
-ED: 3
-WR: 3
-S: 3
-TE: 3
-iOL: 2
-RB: 2
-OT: 1
-LB: 1
-QB: 1

-Notes:
--All 3 TE's have been in the 3rd round
--DL, ED, and DB have accounted for all but one 1st round pick
--Absence of OT almost certainly due to personnel on the roster during this span

RAS Breakdown:

-9+: 11
-8+: 16
-7+: 22
-<7: 8*
-N/A: 1

*especially willing to accept lower RAS in the 3rd round and at iDL and TE

Level of Competition: Only thing to say here is that all 31 players were FBS; no aversion to group of 5 schools, but 0 FCS selections on days 1/2 in 10 years.

Size: Regardless of position, the Packers have drafted one player in this span under 5"11" (Alexander) and the lightest player they drafted was Casey Hayward (185 lbs).

Conclusion: If you want to make a board of Packer type players, weed out undersized guys, guys with low RAS (excepting TE and iDL), and FCS level players. So who are the names?
Very interesting stuff
 

Magooch

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Don't forget the QBs, I think both Ridder and Pickett meet the criteria :D
 
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Gute Loot
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At least in the 1st round, the Packers have preferred younger players. This makes sense-- a young break-out age correlates strongly with NFL success. That's particularly notable because this class (due to covid hysteria) is the oldest ever. Below you will find the guys who are older and younger than is typical. The age I'm listing is how old they will be when their rookie season ends. If a guy is going to be 24 before he's through his rookie year, he's old. If he's still going to be 21, he's young. Anything in between is in the range of normal.

Big Names Who are Older:

-Bernhard Raimann, OT, CMU: 25
-Phidarian Mathis, iDL, Alabama: 25
-Jermaine Johnson, ED, FSU: 24
-Boye Mafe, ED, Minnesota: 24
-Arnold Ebiketie, ED, Penn State: 24
-Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt: 24
-Abraham Lucas, OT, WSU: 24
-Josh Paschal, DL, UK: 24
-Cole Strange, iOL, CHATT: 24

Big (Realistic) Names Who are Younger:

-George Karlaftis, ED, Purdue: 21
-Drake London, WR, USC: 21
-Drake Jackson, ED, USC: 21
-Breece Hall, RB, Ia. State: 21
-Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington: 21

There are a ton more older prospects, but those are the bigger names to note. I don't think a guy being older will necessarily mean they're off the Packers' board, but I wouldn't expect them to take those guys high.

A couple things to note on some of these younger guys.

George Karlaftis has 17 TFL, 7.5 sacks, and a pick in the B1G as an 18 year old; 6.5 of those TFL were against ranked opponents.

Drake Jackson had 11.5 TFL and 5.5 sacks in the PAC12 as an 18 year old; 3.5 against ranked opponents.

Drake London had 39 catches for 567 yards and 6 scores in a mere 8 games as an 18 year old (had he played the entire season, it would have been 71/920/8).

Those are all great signs of future success.
 

tynimiller

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Drake Jackson is a guy I have red circled twice in the second round for us - partly because of his age on top of he projects very well.

You know I LOVE Karlaftis so I love it.
 

tynimiller

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That is one reason why I love Tyler Smith the OT (transition to inside possible) from Tulsa. He turns 21 in April. He is a 1st/2nd rounder
 

tynimiller

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I don’t know where he’ll be drafted, but Zach Tom reminds me a lot of Bakhtiari coming out of college.

I love Zach Tom with one of our Fourths, some say that is too early but dude checks every stinking box GB seems to have on OL and also more.
 

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