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Packer Types

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by Dantés, Apr 5, 2020.

  1. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I've been posting a little bit in various parts of the forum about players in this class who fit Packer draft tendencies.

    If people don't know what I'm talking about-- because Ted Thompson was in charge of the GB draft room for so long, a big sample size was developed for various positions, and the measurables of these prospects revealed certain tendencies and guidelines.

    These shouldn't be viewed as rules set in stone. They are violated at times, and seem to hold more weight towards the top of drafts. The long and short of it all is that the Packers like weight adjusted speed and three cone times, along with agility scores generally on offensive line, as well as height minimums at certain positions.

    TT obviously isn't in charge any more, but Gutekunst doesn't seem to have totally abandoned the tendencies. With a couple of exceptions, his guys have remained "on type."

    So I thought I would compile the notable Packer types from this class, as well as the notable "disqualified" guys. It should be noted that a ton of guys are missing data. Lots of guys opted not to do agilities at the combine due to the new schedule, and now we aren't getting pro days.

    WR: The Packers avoid shorter receivers (under 6'), slower receivers (beyond 4.56), and guys with poor flexibility/COD in the 3C (beyond 7.08). Randall Cobb was the notable exception from the TT era, which illustrates that these are tendencies, not hard rules. Gutekunst has basically stuck to this so far, with the exception of J'mon Moore's 4.60 at the combine (later improved to a 4.48 at his pro day).

    Qualifiers:
    • Denzel Mims, Baylor: 6'3", 207, 4.38, 6.66
    • Michael Pittman, USC: 6'4", 223, 4.52, 6.96
    • Gabriel Davis, UCF: 6'2", 4.54, 7.08
    • John Hightower, BSU: 6'1", 4.43, 7.07
    • Freddie Swain, Florida: 6'0", 4.46, 7.05
    • K.J. Osborn, Miami: 5'11", 4.48, 7.0
    • Aaron Parker, Rhode Island: 6'2", 4.57, 6.94
    Notably "Disqualified":
    • Henry Ruggs, Alabama: 5'11"
    • Jalen Reagor, TCU: 5'11", 7.31
    • Laviska Shenault, Colorado: 4.58
    • K.J. Hamler, Penn State: 5'9"
    • Devin Duvernay, Memphis: 5'10", 7.13
    • Lynn Bowden, Kentucky: 5'11"
    • Antonio Gandy-Golden, Libery: 4.60, 7.33
    • K.J. Hill, Ohio State: 4.60
    Notably Missing Data:
    • Jerry Jeudy, Alabama: 6'1", 4.45, no 3C
    • Ceedee Lamb, Oklahoma: 6'2", 4.50, no 3C
    • Justin Jefferson, LSU: 6'2", 4.43, no 3C
    • Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State: 6'0", 4.50, no 3C
    • Tee Higgins, Clemson: 6'4", 4.54, no 3C (pro day forty)
    • Bryan Edwards, South Carolina: 6'3", no forty, no 3C
    • Chase Claypool, Notre Dame: 6'4", 4.42, no 3C
    • Van Jefferson, Florida: 6'1", no forty, no 3C
    • Antonio Gibson, Memphis: 6'0", 4.38, no 3C
    • Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan: 6'2", 4.48, no 3C
    • Joe Reed, Virginia: 6'0", 4.47, no 3C
    OL: The Packers generally have avoided short offensive linemen. With Linsley being a notable exception, their choices both inside and outside have generally been at least 6'3.5". Additionally, they like a good combo of agility scores-- sub 7.80 in the 3C and 4.80 in the SS.

    Qualifiers:
    • Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia: 6'5", 7.58 3C, 4.66 SS
    • Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa: 6'5", 7.65 3C, 4.68 SS
    • Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State: 6'6", 7.26 3C, 4.46 SS
    • Matt Hennessy, C/G, Temple: 6'4", 7.45 3C, 4.60 SS
    • Alex Taylor, OT, South Carolina State: 6'8", 7.77 3C, 4.79 SS
    • Jon Runyan, OT/G, Michigan: 6'4", 7.57 3C, 4.69 SS
    • Danny Pinter, G/C, Ball State: 6'4", 7.76 3C, 4.62 SS
    Notably Disqualified:
    • Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama: 4.84 SS
    • Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan: 6'3", 7.91 3C, 4.64 SS
    • Austin Jackson, OT, USC: 7.95 3C
    • Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia: 8.26 3C, 5.07 SS
    • Lloyd Cushenberry, C, LSU: 6'3"
    • Netane Muti, G, Fresno State: 6'3"
    • Matt Peart, OT, Connecticut: 8.01 3C, 4.92 SS
    • Jonah Jackson, G, Ohio State: 6'3", 7.83 3C, 5.02 SS
    • Nick Harris, C, Washington: 6'1"
    Notably Missing Data:
    • Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville: 6'7", no drills
    • Josh Jones, OT, Houston: 6'5", no drills
    • Lucas Niang, OT, TCU: 6'6", no drills
    • Jack Driscoll, OT, Auburn: 6'5", no drills
    • Ben Bartch, OT, St. Johns: 6'6", no drills
    • Robert Hunt, G/OT, La. Lafayette: 6'5", no drills
    • Saahdiq Charles, OT, LSU: 6'4", no drills
    CB: The Packers like guys with height, but seem willing to go down to 5'10" if the right player is there. Speed and agility are the major factors-- nothing above 4.57 in the forty and above 6.90 in the 3C. This position more than others is one that I think it adversely affected by the schedule change and the agility drills being later-- nearly all of the top corners either ran relatively bad times or decided not to participate.

    Qualifiers:
    • K'von Wallace, Clemson: 5'11", 4.53 forty, 6.76 3C
    • Michael Ojemudia, Iowa: 6'1", 4.45 forty, 6.87 3C
    Notably Disqualified:
    • Jaylon Johnson, Utah: 7.01 3C
    • Kristian Fulton, LSU: 6.94 3C
    • A.J. Terrell, Clemson: 7.09 3C (pro day)
    • Jeff Gladney, TCU: 7.26 3C
    • Cameron Danztler, Miss. State: 4.64 forty
    • Amik Robertson, La. Tech: 5'8"
    • Troy Pride, Notre Dame: 6.94 3C
    • Javaris Davis, Auburn: 5'8"
    • Dane Jackson, Pittsburgh: 7.07 3C
    • Reggie Robinson, Tulsa: 7.09 3C
    Notably Missing Data:
    • Jeff Okudah, Ohio State: 6'1", 4.48 forty, no 3C
    • Trevon Diggs, Alabama: 6'1", no drills
    • Damon Arnette, Ohio State: 6'0", 4.56 forty, no 3C
    • Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn: 5'10", 4.48 forty, no 3C
    • Bryce Hall, Virginia: 6'1", no drills
    • Terrell Burgess, Utah: 5'11", 4.46 forty, no 3C
    • Darnay Holmes, UCLA: 5'10", 4.48 forty, no 3C
    iDL: The method has not been as exact for this position, so the guidelines are more general. At this position, look for good weight-adjusted numbers in the forty and the three cone (sense a theme?). It also seems that the guidelines fall away in the mid and late rounds at this position, so I will only look at the relatively highly rated players. I don't know exactly where the line should fall in terms of 3C time, but this class makes it easy: there is a massive gap between the good ones and everyone else's. The two qualifiers are in the 81st%. The next best guy after them is in the 45th%. So I am assuming the line would be somewhere in the space of that statistical chasm.

    Qualifiers:
    • Justin Madubuike, Texas AM: 293#, 4.83 forty, 7.37 3C
    • James Lynch, Baylor: 289#, 5.01 forty, 7.39 3C
    Notably Disqualified:
    • Derrick Brown, Auburn: 8.26 3C
    • Ross Blacklock, TCU: 7.77 3C
    • Raekwon Davis, Alabama: 7.95 3C
    • Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma: 7.97 3C
    Notably Missing Data:
    • Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina: 324#, no drills
    • Jordan Elliott, Missouri: 302#, 5.02, no 3C
    • Marlon Davison, Auburn: 303#, 5.04, no 3C
    At linebacker, TT never picked enough of them to establish a sample size, but it's probably safe to assume that they like a combination of size, speed and agility. So I'm just going to say keep an eye on Malik Harrison (OSU), Logan Wilson (Wyoming), Willie Gay Jr (MSU), Shaun Bradley (Temple), and Mykal Walker (Fresno State). Patrick Queen, Kenneth Murray, and Jordan Brooks didn't provide agility numbers.
     
    • Informative Informative x 3
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  2. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    I have to say, as someone that doesn't know the draft, you seem to put in your work. Thank you.

    I think another shorter guy we had was Scott Wells, maybe it's just a "center" thing for height? maybe he was Pre-Ted. All feels like a few years go to me LOL
     
  3. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Wells is a good catch, but he was drafted the year before TT showed up. Interestingly, while not being as tall as the normal Packers draft pick on the OL, he hit the agility metrics. Of all the tendencies that the Packers have stuck to over the years, the OL ones have been the most successful by far.
     
  4. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    I've been doing some gathering on this, but I had never done it in full detail. Your analysis has me worried however as there's a probability that limits us to very few prospects on Day 2.

    I've got my own metrics for prospects, but I'm more of a "trust the tape" guy, especially when it's against top competition. Only when you've got a small school prospect do I think these guys have to really live up to solid metrics to make sure they can go out there and compete.
     
  5. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I wouldn't worry too much. With all of the missing data this year, I can't image that they scratch off all the guys who don't have all the metrics.
     
  6. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    That missing data could be both a plus and a minus. I'm worried all the same. I hope lack of information doesn't result in a less than ideal draft class. This might be Gute's third Draft but I really mean it when I say this could make or break the rest of Rodgers career and define the next chapter in Green Bay's history.
     
  7. hasamikun

    hasamikun Cheesehead

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    I really doubt that Gute will limit himself with going only with the players listed in "qualified". Thats not how the draft works. Especially at WR, the biggest names are listed in "missing" data and Gutey wouldnt pass on lamb, Jeudy, Jefferson, Aiyuk etc when they are bpa . As Dantes wrote himself these are tendencies not rules.

    Also while some combine and pro days numbers are missing, the Packers scouted most the players for weeks or even months before the Corona outbreak. I doubt that they will lack information about players in the three rounds, at least.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    That's right-- they will have more information.

    Plus, even if they didn't, I would suppose that they would be willing to draft players with missing data points if they felt that they had the desired trait just the same.

    Plus, these are tendencies, not laws. So even "disqualified" players are in play-- they're just less likely to be drafted based on history. One assumes that the FO has to really like them to make the exception.

    I wouldn't worry. On the whole, it's a good thing that the FO culls out the lower end of NFL caliber athletes.
     
  9. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I will say that the list of qualifiers does include a lot of players that I like quite a bit. Mims, Pittman, Taylor, and Wallace in particular are realistic targets that I think would be great additions to to the Packers.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. PackFan2

    PackFan2 Cheesehead

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    Dantes thanks for the info! Although I don't put too much weight into the measurements I know Gute has talked a little about the qualities they look at & they do look at exceptions. I remember Gute saying something to the fact that "you want exceptions but you can't have a team full of exceptions." So they definitely have a flexible cut off criteria in place.

    I'd also like to add that on average their OLs are usually under 6'5". The taller guys 6'6"+ are usually on PSquad. Compared to Lions where their OLs are 6'6" - 6'9" with exception to their center being 6'2-6'3.
     
  11. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Hmm. That's an interesting point.

    I've got Cole Madison listed at 6'5", Jason Spriggs at 6'6", Derek Sherrod at 6'5", Bryan Bulaga at 6'5", Kyle Murphy at 6'6", Andrew Datko at 6'6", Breno Giacomini at 6'7".

    But it isn't notable that they've only drafted one OL over 6'6" since 2005. One wonders if they don't want the super tall guys (a pad level/leverage concern), or if it's a byproduct of seeking the strong agility numbers, since the nimble OL usually tend not to be super tall.

    Perhaps guys like Alex Taylor and Matt Peart aren't their ideal.
     
  12. PackFan2

    PackFan2 Cheesehead

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    Thats what I think so too. I just loved watching guys like Tony Boselli and Jonathan Odgen - so when I noticed Bakh being only 6'4" and packers' other OTs being under 6"5.. I was like oh.. they like shorter guys. Packers have some guys listed taller than their combine measure too. TBH guys like Odgen are one and a few (hence those exceptions)
     

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