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Packer Free Agents: What should the Packers do? Track Their Decisions
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<blockquote data-quote="sschind" data-source="post: 823226" data-attributes="member: 10247"><p>If you think you have a pretty good grasp on how the salary cap works you may want to skip this. If you think you might need a little help hopefully this will explain some of it specifically regarding guaranteed money, guaranteed salary and signing bonuses. Its a long read and there are lots of numbers ( but no math if you trust me) so you have been warned. </p><p></p><p>Guaranteed money really comes down to how much cap space the team has. Lets assume they are going to sign a player to a 5 year deal worth 81 million with 40 million in guarantees. If they are strapped for cap space they may give out most or even all of that guaranteed money in the form of a signing bonus and offer a smaller salary for the first year or even two and then raising it considerably in years 3,4,5 when hopefully they have more cap space. By doing this they can keep the cap hits to a smaller amount in years 1 and 2 by only having to count the lower salary and 8 million a year in signing bonus (40 million divided by 5) Lets say they agree to a 1 million dollar salary in year 1 , 3 million in year 2 then 8, 13, 16 in years 3,4,5. The cap hits would be as follows 9 million, 11, 16, 21, 24. In the past many of these deals were often considered to be 3 year deals because it was though that there was no way the team would pay the last two years. If they did cut the player after year 3 the team would save 5 million on the salary cap in year 4 but they would still have to count 16 million because the 8 million a year for years 4 and 5 would all count at once. This is the dead money. Pushing money out via large signing bonus got a lot of teams into a lot of trouble when it came time to cut a player because of cap reasons or simply because they were no longer productive.</p><p></p><p>Now lets look at a team with a lot of cap space. Same deal 5 years 81 million 40 million guaranteed but now the team has a lot of money in year 1 and maybe even year 2 so they offer a 20 million dollar signing bonus with year 1 salary of 9 million guaranteed and year two of 11 million guaranteed then they go 12, 14, 15 not guaranteed. That gives them cap hits of 13,15, 16, 18, 19. Not only is it more stable cap wise but if they decide to move on after year 3 they are only on the hook for 8 million instead of 16 (20 million SB divided by 5 years = 4 million a year)</p><p></p><p>The way I look at it is if you are going to sign a free agent to a big deal it is very likely that you are going to keep him around for at least the first year for sure and probably the second as well so if you know you are going to keep them why not guarantee their salary for those two years. If it allows you to get by with a smaller signing bonus which will keep potential dead money to a minimum in the future why not do it. If the player isn't producing you can cut him after year two with less dead money. It also lessens the likelihood that they will have to cut a productive player because their cap hits are too high in years 4 and 5. They may also not feel the need to offer an extension if they want to keep the guy but need to lower the cap hits in the last two years which may just push the problem out further. This is what a lot of restructures or extensions do. They convert a large part of a non guaranteed salary into a guaranteed signing bonus which allows the team to count less in the first year but it forces them to count more in each succeeding year of the extension. Its what a lot of fans were suggesting we do with Matthews and Cobb prior to last season to reduce their cap hits for 2018. The problem with doing that is it adds new money to the deal and if the packers felt it was time to move on from either of them now they would still be on the hook for some amount of dead money instead of being free and clear like they are now. Players go for it because instead of getting a 10 million dollar salary paid out of 17 weeks they get 9 million all at once. </p><p></p><p>The results to the player are the same. They get 40 million dollars guaranteed and if they play the whole contract they get 81 million. If they are cut after year three will have gotten a total of 52 million (65 or 66 if cut after year 4 with dead money to the team of 8 or 4 million in year 5)</p><p></p><p>Sorry it so long. I tried to keep the numbers fairly simple. There are other ways to guarantee money as well such as roster bonuses and workout bonuses just to name a couple. All can be very useful for teams with lots of cap space in reducing the signing bonus which in turn lessens the risk for dead money in the future. The bottom line is every dollar paid to a player had to count against the cap eventually. If the player plays out the full contract with no extensions or other modifications in my example above the team will have to count 81 million against their cap. The way it is structured simply determines when it will be counted and how much in each year.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="sschind, post: 823226, member: 10247"] If you think you have a pretty good grasp on how the salary cap works you may want to skip this. If you think you might need a little help hopefully this will explain some of it specifically regarding guaranteed money, guaranteed salary and signing bonuses. Its a long read and there are lots of numbers ( but no math if you trust me) so you have been warned. Guaranteed money really comes down to how much cap space the team has. Lets assume they are going to sign a player to a 5 year deal worth 81 million with 40 million in guarantees. If they are strapped for cap space they may give out most or even all of that guaranteed money in the form of a signing bonus and offer a smaller salary for the first year or even two and then raising it considerably in years 3,4,5 when hopefully they have more cap space. By doing this they can keep the cap hits to a smaller amount in years 1 and 2 by only having to count the lower salary and 8 million a year in signing bonus (40 million divided by 5) Lets say they agree to a 1 million dollar salary in year 1 , 3 million in year 2 then 8, 13, 16 in years 3,4,5. The cap hits would be as follows 9 million, 11, 16, 21, 24. In the past many of these deals were often considered to be 3 year deals because it was though that there was no way the team would pay the last two years. If they did cut the player after year 3 the team would save 5 million on the salary cap in year 4 but they would still have to count 16 million because the 8 million a year for years 4 and 5 would all count at once. This is the dead money. Pushing money out via large signing bonus got a lot of teams into a lot of trouble when it came time to cut a player because of cap reasons or simply because they were no longer productive. Now lets look at a team with a lot of cap space. Same deal 5 years 81 million 40 million guaranteed but now the team has a lot of money in year 1 and maybe even year 2 so they offer a 20 million dollar signing bonus with year 1 salary of 9 million guaranteed and year two of 11 million guaranteed then they go 12, 14, 15 not guaranteed. That gives them cap hits of 13,15, 16, 18, 19. Not only is it more stable cap wise but if they decide to move on after year 3 they are only on the hook for 8 million instead of 16 (20 million SB divided by 5 years = 4 million a year) The way I look at it is if you are going to sign a free agent to a big deal it is very likely that you are going to keep him around for at least the first year for sure and probably the second as well so if you know you are going to keep them why not guarantee their salary for those two years. If it allows you to get by with a smaller signing bonus which will keep potential dead money to a minimum in the future why not do it. If the player isn't producing you can cut him after year two with less dead money. It also lessens the likelihood that they will have to cut a productive player because their cap hits are too high in years 4 and 5. They may also not feel the need to offer an extension if they want to keep the guy but need to lower the cap hits in the last two years which may just push the problem out further. This is what a lot of restructures or extensions do. They convert a large part of a non guaranteed salary into a guaranteed signing bonus which allows the team to count less in the first year but it forces them to count more in each succeeding year of the extension. Its what a lot of fans were suggesting we do with Matthews and Cobb prior to last season to reduce their cap hits for 2018. The problem with doing that is it adds new money to the deal and if the packers felt it was time to move on from either of them now they would still be on the hook for some amount of dead money instead of being free and clear like they are now. Players go for it because instead of getting a 10 million dollar salary paid out of 17 weeks they get 9 million all at once. The results to the player are the same. They get 40 million dollars guaranteed and if they play the whole contract they get 81 million. If they are cut after year three will have gotten a total of 52 million (65 or 66 if cut after year 4 with dead money to the team of 8 or 4 million in year 5) Sorry it so long. I tried to keep the numbers fairly simple. There are other ways to guarantee money as well such as roster bonuses and workout bonuses just to name a couple. All can be very useful for teams with lots of cap space in reducing the signing bonus which in turn lessens the risk for dead money in the future. The bottom line is every dollar paid to a player had to count against the cap eventually. If the player plays out the full contract with no extensions or other modifications in my example above the team will have to count 81 million against their cap. The way it is structured simply determines when it will be counted and how much in each year. [/QUOTE]
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