Packer Draft Needs and 1st Round

brandon2348

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Isn't Charles supposed to go top 20? .


He is a top 20 player but you got all these "combine junkies" throwing salt on him so he is expected to drop. That's why if he is there the Packers should run and I mean run to get him.
 

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What did you find especially impressive about White's metrics?

If people don't want a guard in round 1, I think that makes sense. I'm just saying that Lamp is really good.

NM I thought White tested better, although I still like him as a prospect. The issue for me with guard is that there are so many dedicated guards and conversion tackles coming into the league each year that there is always talent available in rounds 3-7. Lamp might be very good, but 1 year down the line will be that much better than a good prospect from the 4th round. IMHO Teddy relies on the in house options but restocks the pipeline with a selection or two in rounds 4-7.
 

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Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting reported that multiple teams have told him they have a top 10 grade on Harris. You take everything that you hear with a grain of salt during this time of year, but I could see him going pretty early given his refinement as a pass rusher. If that alternate pro day time of a 7.05 is correct, that would be a pretty big difference. 29th% vs. 77th. And teams all use their own hand times if they're there to collect them, so it's possible that there is a variance of numbers out there. And there are teams out there that just don't care about that sort of thing. I mean, Jarvis Jones went #17 overall.
 

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NM I thought White tested better, although I still like him as a prospect. The issue for me with guard is that there are so many dedicated guards and conversion tackles coming into the league each year that there is always talent available in rounds 3-7. Lamp might be very good, but 1 year down the line will be that much better than a good prospect from the 4th round. IMHO Teddy relies on the in house options but restocks the pipeline with a selection or two in rounds 4-7.

For most teams, I would say it's unrealistic to expect a mid round OL to come on that well. But Thompson has proven to be able to do that time and again. His athletic minimums on the line really do work. So I understand waiting. But I do really like Lamp.
 

brandon2348

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Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting reported that multiple teams have told him they have a top 10 grade on Harris. You take everything that you hear with a grain of salt during this time of year, but I could see him going pretty early given his refinement as a pass rusher. If that alternate pro day time of a 7.05 is correct, that would be a pretty big difference. 29th% vs. 77th. And teams all use their own hand times if they're there to collect them, so it's possible that there is a variance of numbers out there. And there are teams out there that just don't care about that sort of thing. I mean, Jarvis Jones went #17 overall.

I never understood the Jarvis Jones hype. His tape was good but nothing "eye popping" like Harris. Jones was also smaller.
 
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The issue for me with guard is that there are so many dedicated guards and conversion tackles coming into the league each year that there is always talent available in rounds 3-7. Lamp might be very good, but 1 year down the line will be that much better than a good prospect from the 4th round. IMHO Teddy relies on the in house options but restocks the pipeline with a selection or two in rounds 4-7.

I expect Thompson to use a mid round pick on a guard as well but not only to stockpile the pipeline but for him to compete for the starting job on the right side.
 

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Don't worry guys. If I had a super power, it would be finding starting-caliber linemen in the 4th round of the draft.
 

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If Dallas doesn't pick Watt, the Packers should, if the Packers don't, the Steelers will.

That is my only draft day prediction, if some other team doesn't stretch to pick Watt earlier, on of the 3 aforementioned teams will pick him.
 

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I wouldn't be a huge fan of the Possibke TJ Watt pick. I honestly think he's a little overrated...I think CB needs to be addressed (with a true CB, not converting a safety). I really like Kevin king, but am really happy with anyone that can upgrade that position.
 

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I think Watt might be overrated in what he'll bring in year 1, but give him 2-3 years in the NFL I think he's going to be well liked by whichever team picks him.
 

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I think in the first round you need to get a guy that can make an impact now and that's why I don't like Watt at no.29. Despite his great combine I think he might be a bit of a reach at 29 with the other players that will potentially be on the board.

Watt wouldn't be the worst pick here but not the best pick either IMO.
 

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If Dallas doesn't pick Watt, the Packers should, if the Packers don't, the Steelers will.

That is my only draft day prediction, if some other team doesn't stretch to pick Watt earlier, on of the 3 aforementioned teams will pick him.
I see no reason to pick Watt. I doubt that anyone would agree with me, but I actually expect Vince Biegel, his teammate OLB, is going to be a more productive player overall than Watt and we could possibly get him in the 3rd. IMO I think he's worth a 2nd. When you look at his senior year stats, they are injury deflated and even being injured, he still put up more pressures than Watt. Makes me think that helped Watt record some of the sacks that he did. Hell, Vince put up the 2nd most pressures out of all the OLBs in the draft this year. If my stats are correct. Anyway, his junior year stats are very impressive and show what he can do without being injured. I think he provides more value than watt and a lower price tag. Unless Charles falls, I hope they take a Corner in the first.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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I would much rather "reach" and take Watt with the #29 pick then "reach" and take a CB that people might expect to contribute in year one, I just don't see a CB being available at #29 that will contribute much more than the Packers already have, in his rookie year. I think we get more out of Watt in year #1 then a CB and I think the upside on Watt in years 2 and beyond could be big. Basically, at this point, I'm not really a fan of using our #1 pick on a CB and think we could probably get a very similar developmental one, later in the draft.
 
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I would be extremely shocked if Thompson selects a guard in the first round.
I would also add disappointed.
While I've been a huge proponent of building a superior OL and generally critical of us using so many recent 1st rounders on Defense.. this is one year that I wouldn't complain if we went Defense 1 and 2 then resumed building our Offense for our 3rd and 4th selections
 
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I would much rather "reach" and take Watt with the #29 pick then "reach" and take a CB that people might expect to contribute in year one, I just don't see a CB being available at #29 that will contribute much more than the Packers already have, in his rookie year. I think we get more out of Watt in year #1 then a CB and I think the upside on Watt in years 2 and beyond could be big. Basically, at this point, I'm not really a fan of using our #1 pick on a CB and think we could probably get a very similar developmental one, later in the draft.
I also like the idea of filling the vacuum left by Peppers and Datone sooner than later. I think we'd be wise to go CB though on one of this Friday's picks, even then maybe another secondary player again Saturday, especially if someone slips a round or two
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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People forget that JJ wasn't anything like his dominant self in college. He was good, but he was largely valued on traits.
Valued enough though by the Texans to take him with the 11th pick in the draft. I think a lot of teams saw JJ's potential and obviously the Texans cashed in on that potential. Will TJ be equally as good? Tough call, but I think I would gamble on TJ at #29 VS some guys who may have played their best years of football in college. The potential upside on TJ would be really hard to resist for me. When you see a guy dominate like TJ did at times this past year, while playing in the Big10 and only one full year at his position, the ceiling could be pretty high on the guy.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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I also like the idea of filling the vacuum left by Peppers and Datone sooner than later. I think we'd be wise to go CB though on one of this Friday's picks, even then maybe another secondary player again Saturday, especially if someone slips a round or two

Agreed.

Although the Packers shouldn't let the drafting of Randall and Rollins (#1 and #2) make them gunshy about using top picks for CB's in the future, I think the lesson learned is, you probably aren't going to find an effective enough 2017 starter at CB, even with as deep as the CB draft is this year. If you do draft one, is he really going to get a lot of playing time behind House, Randall and Rollins? At this point, I would almost rather see the Packers ride out the CB's that are currently on the team and see where they are or even try and find a veteran to add to the group. If that strategy fails, a #29 pick probably wouldn't have saved the season anyway. Then despite TT's adversity to using Free Agency on top guys, you go after a top CB in free agency next year. On the flip side, I think you might get more out of an OLB with your top pick. As Twiddle pointed out, the Packers are thin at OLB and a #1 pick would see playing time, as well as prepare himself to potentially take over for Clay.
 

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Valued enough though by the Texans to take him with the 11th pick in the draft. I think a lot of teams saw JJ's potential and obviously the Texans cashed in on that potential. Will TJ be equally as good? Tough call, but I think I would gamble on TJ at #29 VS some guys who may have played their best years of football in college. The potential upside on TJ would be really hard to resist for me. When you see a guy dominate like TJ did at times this past year, while playing in the Big10 and only one full year at his position, the ceiling could be pretty high on the guy.

Yep. But had JJ played at WISC anything like he has since his second season in the NFL, he would have gone #1. The tape on him was good, but not amazing. Texans took him there based on athleticism as much as on field production and it paid off huge.

Now I would bet a lot that TJ is not as good as JJ at the next level. Mostly because older brother genuinely has a case to be in the discussion for best defensive player of all time. So that's about as high as the bar gets.

But I do believe that, barring injuries derailing him, TJ is one of the safer prospects that could be available to the Packers and with a crazy high ceiling.

People tend to look at the athletic profile types as the risky guys and the big production players as the safer picks, but I tend to think it's reversed when it comes to edge prospects. Traits like Watt's just don't bust very often. And when they do it's often got a lot to do with not being able to hold weight or not being invested in the game. Those aren't going to be his problems.
 

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He is a top 20 player but you got all these "combine junkies" throwing salt on him so he is expected to drop. That's why if he is there the Packers should run and I mean run to get him.

I like Harris a lot, but if he fell to #29 I'd take Zach Cunningham in a heartbeat, and he could be there at 29. He played OLB, is being marketed as an ILB in a 4-3 defense but I don't see why he couldn't play in a 3-4 just fine. He could play both inside and outside, but with him at ILB Clay can move to OLB with Perry. And Cunningham is way better than Martinez or Fackrell or the rest.
 

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Yep. But had JJ played at WISC anything like he has since his second season in the NFL, he would have gone #1. The tape on him was good, but not amazing. Texans took him there based on athleticism as much as on field production and it paid off huge.

Now I would bet a lot that TJ is not as good as JJ at the next level. Mostly because older brother genuinely has a case to be in the discussion for best defensive player of all time. So that's about as high as the bar gets.

But I do believe that, barring injuries derailing him, TJ is one of the safer prospects that could be available to the Packers and with a crazy high ceiling.

People tend to look at the athletic profile types as the risky guys and the big production players as the safer picks, but I tend to think it's reversed when it comes to edge prospects. Traits like Watt's just don't bust very often. And when they do it's often got a lot to do with not being able to hold weight or not being invested in the game. Those aren't going to be his problems.
You can tell from watching him, motivation and love for the game is not an issue with him. It's a strength. You put a younger brother trying to reach his big brother's crazy high bar, toss in some athleticism and an opportunity? I think it's a nice recipe.
 
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I see no reason to pick Watt. I doubt that anyone would agree with me, but I actually expect Vince Biegel, his teammate OLB, is going to be a more productive player overall than Watt and we could possibly get him in the 3rd. IMO I think he's worth a 2nd. When you look at his senior year stats, they are injury deflated and even being injured, he still put up more pressures than Watt. Makes me think that helped Watt record some of the sacks that he did. Hell, Vince put up the 2nd most pressures out of all the OLBs in the draft this year. If my stats are correct. Anyway, his junior year stats are very impressive and show what he can do without being injured. I think he provides more value than watt and a lower price tag. Unless Charles falls, I hope they take a Corner in the first.

According to PFF Watt (56) had more pressures than Biegel (46) last season. It's possible that it might be smart to select him later in the draft though.

At this point, I would almost rather see the Packers ride out the CB's that are currently on the team and see where they are or even try and find a veteran to add to the group. Then despite TT's adversity to using Free Agency on top guys, you go after a top CB in free agency next year.

I agree that it most likely takes a cornerback drafted at #29 some time to develop into a decent player at the pro level but there's no reason to believe the group of players currently on the roster will get the job done. While I would prefer to add another veteran to the depth chart the Packers should at least select a prospect early in the draft to improve the talent level.

As I've mentioned before in my opinion there's a possibility Thompson will get relieved of his duties if the Packers fall short of winning another Super Bowl because the position wasn't adequately upgraded. That would open up the possibilty of the team aggressively addressing it next year.

I like Harris a lot, but if he fell to #29 I'd take Zach Cunningham in a heartbeat, and he could be there at 29. He played OLB, is being marketed as an ILB in a 4-3 defense but I don't see why he couldn't play in a 3-4 just fine. He could play both inside and outside, but with him at ILB Clay can move to OLB with Perry. And Cunningham is way better than Martinez or Fackrell or the rest.

Cunningham is best suited to play inside linebacker in a 3-4 defense. While I wouldn't mind the Packers upgrading the position I don't see the need to spend a first round pick on it.
 

brandon2348

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I like Harris a lot, but if he fell to #29 I'd take Zach Cunningham in a heartbeat, and he could be there at 29. He played OLB, is being marketed as an ILB in a 4-3 defense but I don't see why he couldn't play in a 3-4 just fine. He could play both inside and outside, but with him at ILB Clay can move to OLB with Perry. And Cunningham is way better than Martinez or Fackrell or the rest.

I wouldn't complain a bit if Cunningham was the pick but I expect him to be long gone by the time the Packers draft unfortunately which takes me back to Harris.
 

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I see no reason to pick Watt. I doubt that anyone would agree with me, but I actually expect Vince Biegel, his teammate OLB, is going to be a more productive player overall than Watt and we could possibly get him in the 3rd. IMO I think he's worth a 2nd. When you look at his senior year stats, they are injury deflated and even being injured, he still put up more pressures than Watt. Makes me think that helped Watt record some of the sacks that he did. Hell, Vince put up the 2nd most pressures out of all the OLBs in the draft this year. If my stats are correct. Anyway, his junior year stats are very impressive and show what he can do without being injured. I think he provides more value than watt and a lower price tag. Unless Charles falls, I hope they take a Corner in the first.

In my opinion, you're talking about two good options.

Watt, with his superior athleticism and big frame, is worth the first round pick to me.

Biegel is no slouch in his own right and would be a great value in Rd 3 if they went another direction earlier. He is arguably more advanced in his pass rush technique, having spent more time at the position. However, he doesn't have Watt's upside and, despite Watt's inexperience, never matched Watt's 2016 production at any point.

Captain shared PFF's numbers. Here are cfbstats' for consideration:

Watt: 11.5 sacks, 4 TFL, 13 hurries
Biegel: 4 sacks, 2 TFL, 7 hurries
 

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